TBL matches and then moves someone

Lightning already have to move two, probably three of Killorn/palat/gourde/Johnson to fit vasilevsky Sergachev and cirelli extensions. They can squeeze cernak in at 2 mil per year but not at 3.5 mil without trading another forward or even Sergachev.

*Edit: And it’s not like they can just move someone easily for a fair return. Other GMs know how screwed Tampa is with contracts and will bend them over a barrel on any desperation cap trade, especially if their RFAs have already signed an offer sheet*

well i guess
What's sergachev and Cirelli's extension

All those 4 guys have a NTC. No way Tampa can afford Cernak, Cirelli and Sergachev next season. Possibly only can afford 1 depending on the market

Around 9 million combined I’d imagine

Well considering that Toronto only has about $14.6 million to sign 13 more players, They're pretty much the last team that can afford to offer sheet anyone.

No big contract rfas though, they have a ton of players on ELCs to fill out the lineup, and unlike Tampa they haven’t handed out NTCs to all their players so they shouldn’t have any issues moving kapanen or johnsson to clear up additional space.

My problem would be what happens if Toronto agains gets in cap trouble and another team comes to poach one of it's players. Slippery slope for a team with no wiggle room.

Do you mean as a retaliation for offer sheeting a player? 3.5 mil is not a major cap commitment for cernak - certainly less than most other ufa targets, and doesn’t hamstring the team long term

I like everything you've said here, including responses to comments, except for that which I don't understand (I don't know who Liam Kirk is), with the sole caveat that you may be premature on Engvall's ticket -- he may play himself into a bigger number the second half of the season.

Your point about Engvall is definitely possible - the counter-argument would be that he's already 24 or 25 and doesn't have an impressive pedigree so it isn't clear that he'd excel in another system with less talented linemates. He doesn't have a ton of leverage in negotiations as an RFA, and with the winger depth in Toronto's system he's not irreplaceable. I think it would make more sense for him to sign a team-friendly bridge deal with the leafs that would allow him to cash in as a UFA in a couple years if he continues to play well, rather than sign a slightly more lucrative deal with another team where he might not be as comfortable or have the same level of talent surrounding him