You're gonna love it they try to tell you that Ceci and Harpur are good hahaha

Over 8 years yes. It's not just pick a number out of a hat though, it's all calculated with different stats. Same as everyone else. You take away the leverage and there is nothing left but facts. None of which say.he should get over 9 mil for 6 yeqrs

That's the dumbest answer yet. Because analysts say so. The facts are there. He's not going to blow them away

Yes let's compare basic points and nothing more. Dermot has played very hard minutes and with a busted shoulder all last season. But let's compare that because it makes sense

Buchnevich is 24, scores at a modest rate, is soft for his size, and has disastrous advanced stats. Yes ever GM is looking for that type of player.
Dermott right now is likely the Keats second best dman and he's yet to really play a full healthy season because he's had a shoulder issue for two years now.
This is obviously not something you can get the answer to quickly bur pay attention to him the next two years and I bet you change your mind on this

No he didn't, you have no clue about negotiations. It's all 100% about the cap %. Management and ownership do not give a rats ass about what his cap hit "would have been". It's 6.97. It's that because he waited it out. If you want to go by the 7.5 to support your argument than go right ahead but he basically signed for 13% less cap % than ask.

Last time I checked, players do not care about % of cap. Nylander did get paid AAV of 7.5, you can say oh it is only 6.95 which is this % of cap, but he is getting only 1 below his ask annually. I don’t see Marner taking 7.5, 8.5, or even 9. It will be above that. And again, Nylander waited it out and Dubas blinked. It is likely going to happen again this year because everyone is aware of what happened.

You could not be more wrong. The entire argument and negotiation of contracts starts and ends with % of cap. No question
Dubas didn't "blink". Anyone who understands hockey knows Nylander was actuskoy decent last year after his slow start and is a good price at 6.96 mil.
13% lower than asking price is much lower that you should expect. It's a good contract

However you want to work it, it he takes 9 for anything longer than 2-3, I would be surprised.

I think 9.5 x 6 is more than fair

RESPONSE TO: "But make no mistake, he got $7,500,000 Dubas was the one who caved at the last minute"

Correct - CapFriendly says Nylander's salary is $45,000,000 over 6 years ($7,500,000 / year) but you missed a calculation.
Nylander didn't get paid for the first 60 days of season 1 (players don't get paid for contract hold out days).
Those days are only included in the contract because partial year contracts aren't allowed (noted in the CBA).

Nylander Year 1 Salary = $10,277,778
Actual Year 1 Days Paid = 120
Total NHL Season Days = 180

So Nylander was only paid 2/3 of his season 1 salary (roughly $6,900,000) and he lost out on roughly $3,400,000.

Total Salary in Contract = $45,000,000 over 6 years
Actual Salary Payments = $41,600,000 over 6 years

Nylander's Actual Average Annual Salary = $6,933,333 (the NHL came up with this so players / teams can't benefit from someone sitting out).

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RESPONSE TO: "So if we go by the $1,000,000 less than player wish, we probably get to $10,000,000 on a 3 or 4 year deal" (for Marner)

This is honestly pretty wild ... You're suggesting that Marner is demanding $11,000,000 / year on a 3-4 year deal? (an $11,000,000 bridge?)

That's absurd (best contact in NHL history by a mile) ... but you're probably right that Marner is fighting for $11,000,000 ... on a 5-6 year deal though.

So as per your suggestion ... lets go with $1,000,000 less than the player wishes (which is actually $1,570,000 less with the correct calculations above).

Your calculations give Marner the following contract = $9,430,000 x 5/6 years (and that's if Dubas "caves at the last minute" as you said).

So maybe we can expect Dubas to do a bit better this time? ... Maybe something like:

$9,000,000 x 6 years ... the contract in my above team?

I don't mean to be rude ... but the statement "deal or no deal" was popularized as the title of the TV show "Deal Or No Deal".

That is the statements most common context in our culture ... as it's not a common statement unless you're an aggressive negotiator.

And it is clearly a statement not a question ... unless you expect someone to respond with "yes" or "no" every time you reference the show?

So in truth ... "Deal or No Deal" is not only sometimes used this way ... it's the phrases most common context by large margin.

You just got clowned by the clown.

Jangle is definitely correct in this situation.

Jssherman your statement is incredibly far outside the realm of reality.

Kucherov just signed for $9,500,000 x 8 years (which starts next season just like Marner's will).
Kucherov also signed when everyone thought the salary-cap would be $83,000,000 (so did Matthews).

- Kucherov is 25 years old
- Kucherov is a RW like Marner
- Kucherov is the reigning Hart Trophy winner (NHL-MVP)
- Kucherov is the reigning Ted Lindsay winner (NHLPA-MVP)
- Kucherov is the reigning Art Ross winner (NHL points leader)

2018-19 SEASON:
Nikita Kucherov = 82 games - 41 goals - 87 assists - 128 points - 1.56 points / game = 128 points / 82 games
Mitchell Marner = 82 games - 26 goals - 68 assists - 094 points - 1.14 points / game = 094 points / 82 games

2017-18 SEASON:
Nikita Kucherov = 80 games - 39 goals - 61 assists - 100 points - 1.25 points / game = 103 points / 82 games
Mitchell Marner = 82 games - 22 goals - 47 assists - 069 points - 0.84 points / game = 069 points / 82 games

2016-17 SEASON:
Nikita Kucherov = 74 games - 40 goals - 45 assists - 85 points - 1.15 points / game = 094 points per 82 games
Mitchell Marner = 77 games - 19 goals - 42 assists - 61 points - 0.79 points / game = 064 points per 82 games

TOTAL OF LAST THREE SEASONS:
Nikita Kucherov = 236 games - 120 goals - 193 assists - 313 points - 1.33 points / game = 110 points per 82 games
Mitchell Marner = 241 games - 067 goals - 157 assists - 224 points - 0.92 points / game = 075 points per 82 games

Marner's performance has never been close to Kucherov's (Kucherov averages 45% more points + 88% more goals per game).
So to suggest that Marner gets a bridge deal with a $9,000,000+ cap-hit (similar to Kucherov's AAV or higher) is pretty crazy.

Over the last 5 years ... the average long-term deal has had a 60% higher cap-hit than it's corresponding bridge deal.
Example = $8,000,000 x 6-8 years = $5,000,000 x 2-3 years (it's been quite consistent whenever both offers are made public).

With that said ... it's possible that Marner gets a similar or sightly higher AAV than Kucherov (on a long-term deal) because:

- Toronto has higher income tax rates than Tampa
- Toronto has higher internal cap-hits than Tampa

So any comments along those lines would make sense and be up for debate ... However:

Jssherman ... if you'd be surprised by Marner taking less than $9,000,000 on a bridge-deal (or over 2-3 years at $9,000,000):

- Would you be surprised if Marner takes less than $14,400,000 on a long-term deal?
- Do you think Marner will get at least $4,900,000 more than Kucherov on a long-term deal?
- Do you know of any comparables in salary-cap history that Marner's agent can reference in negotiations?
- Do you think Marner will sit out for a year and lose 5%-10% of his career earnings for a slightly higher AAV?
- Do you think Brayden Point will get as much as Marner? (has higher points/game + goals/game than Marner)
- Do you think Miko Rantanen will get as much as Marner? (has higher points/game + goals/game than Marner)

It's common knowledge that Nylander "blinked" and called Dubas an hour before the 2018-19 contract deadline (both Nylander and Dubas have said it).

It's also common knowledge that prior to speaking ... Nylander still wanted an $8,500,000 AAV while Dubas was offering Pastrnak's $6,666,000 AAV.

So the result of that conversation (and the negotiation) was:

Nylander settled for $1,540,000 less than his desired AAV.
K.Dubas settled for $300,000 more than his desired AAV.

I have no idea why people try to re-write history to fit a Toronto bashing narrative on this (there's no shortage of Toronto bashing options).

- The contract would have looked good if Nylander played to his normal 62 point pace.
- The contract would have looked great if Nylander improved (expected at 22 years old).
- The contract can still (and probably will) look great if Nylander has a bounce back year.

Jangle29 is 100% right ... percent of cap is the most important factor for players in negotiations (directly comparing dollars would screw them on cap growth).

Jshherman is 100% wrong ... about Nylander getting $7,500,000 a year in "real salary" ... he's making less actual dollars than his year 2-6 cap-hit.

Nylander's Actual Average Annual Salary = $6,933,333 (approximately) over 6 years (including year 1).

My response to another one of your comments explains why (and shows the NHL's salary calculation for holdouts).

Neither of you factor any relevant information into your criticism:

- Dermott will be $2,000,000 - $4,000,000 cheaper than Deangelo this year (NY is in cap-trouble)
- Dermott is a LD and NY currently needs LD much more than RD (Shattenkirk, Trouba, Fox, etc)
- Dermott is younger than Deangelo (comparing same age seasons shows Dermott as a better player)
- Dermott had a much better statistical season than Deangelo last year (despite being a year younger)

- Hyman will be $1,000,000 cheaper than Buchnevich this year (again NY is in cap-trouble)
- Hyman had very similar per game stats to Buchnevich this year and last (yet you imply he's crap)

- Toronto gives 3 extra prospects in the trade (recent 1st + 3rd + 3rd round picks).
- You completely ignore them ... yet they have significant trade value (EX = Skinner for a 2nd + 3rd + 6th).
- New York saves $3,000,000 - $5,000,000 in cap-space (NY will be punished to re-gain their cap in any situation).

And then both of you give the old "Haha Leafs fans are so dumb Haha" while having zero awareness of the facts and situation.

It's a little bit pathetic boys ... but it's all good I won't haha at you ... just take the life lesson and run.

I don’t even want to reopen this useless conversation but the game show Deal or No Deal has absolutely nothing to do with hockey so again, the only meaningful context Deal Or No Deal has in this situation, even without a question mark, is in the form of question.

Now you're just clowning yourself ....

o k p a l

There is no income tax in Florida and Kucherov took a discount. Marner won’t give a discount and there is a high income tax in Canada.

There is income tax in Florida.

Jesus Christ you people are wack ... there is no state tax ... there is federal tax though.

There are also no endorsement deals in florida ... but there are in Toronto.

but you are forgetting the part where he took a bloody hometown discount and Marner wont do that