29 mai 2017
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>evelutions2</b></div><div>I won’t say that I know everything about advanced stats because I don’t. But what I do know is that quite a few models do both Skjei and Necas dirty in that stat department. I want to say the JFresh model was one of the ones that was really quirky with Necas, and moreso with Skjei, but I’m not completely sure. That’s why I tend to base my evaluations of players on what I see them do on the ice, not just because I don’t understand the models completely, but because they can be flawed. Mind you, that’s not to say certain on ice performances are not flawed. I mean, if you play with certain players, they will definitely help pad your stats. Much like Guentzel playing with Crosby, Hamilton playing with Slavin, Toews playing with Makar, and in this case, Lindgren playing with Fox. Lindgren allows Fox to jump, much like Toews does for Makar. We can agree to disagree, but the Canes won’t be giving up Drury or Necas to acquire Lindgren, who plays a position that the Canes don’t really need to make any moves to.</div></div>
Gotcha. I think it’s easier say it’s not a big enough need for you guys to spend the appropriate assets to acquire a player. Rather than a player isn’t worth the appropriate market value.
One is personal to your teams needs. One is objective to the market. We tend to conflate those 2 things here. But we shouldn’t.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>evelutions2</b></div><div>There is also a reason why Drury won’t be traded. He is very likely to be the successor that will receive Staal’s role. None of the Canes other C prospects are at the same level as Drury defensively right now, and are very likely not going to be. Lindgren is very good defensively, but he doesn’t have much outside of that in terms of offense. Necas is still young, and has gotten better defensively this year albeit at the cost of some offense. The Canes are already extremely good in their own zone, but they would need more offense. So, as much as acquiring Lindgren would help the Canes, he doesn’t produce enough offensively as is to make more of a difference than Skjei, for example. Skjei provides the same defensive coverage but with better offensive production and 2mil more in terms of cap. Trading Necas, who put up more points that all but 5 skaters on the Rangers whilst also improving his defensive game, would be massively unwise. Hell, I doubt the Canes would consider trading Necas 1 for 1 for Lafreniere.
Lindgren for Necas straight up won’t happen. Necas is younger, and arguably better (yes I have bias, but we can argue another time over who is better), but also plays a big position of strength for the Canes. Position wise, Necas is expendable, but scoring wise he is not. I do think if Lindgren played for the Canes, his offensive numbers would improve, especially with the way the Canes use the d to jump. You might be able to pry Gunler out in a Lindgren package, but that is unlikely. The Rags need C and RW, and the Canes have plenty available. But Drury and Necas are out of the question. Koivunen isn’t available as well, and more than likely the same goes for Gunler.</div></div>
Thanks for the effort. Not sure of your evaluation, so let's take a look at the numbers...
To be clear since we're talking value:
Ryan Lindgren is sporting a WAR of 2.6 over the past 2 seasons. Brady Skjei is at 0.8, and Necas is at 0.6. I don't think we're really on the same page in terms of where these players are at. Lindgren's value is closer to Pesce (2.9 WAR) than Skjei especially considering his affordable cap hit and age. You'd be <em>adding</em> to a package including any prospect you mentioned as off the table to start the conversation. .
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dopplsan</b></div><div>Yeah, but, how many people out here are applauding the received value of the Risto or Jones trade? 😂
That’s my point here - Trouba doesn’t really do anything for us. He’s a RD, sure, but I don’t necessarily buy him as the Top-Pairing guy that would change the make-up of our blue line.He’s getting paid $8M, but playing more like a $5M-$6M guy. Giving anything in value for him alone that is even within the ballpark of the Jones trade is a waste.</div></div>
I'm not saying it's the wisest move - nor was the Nurse contract, or the Lindholm trade/contract, or the Jones trade, or the Risto trade or the Chiarot trade. But that's the market. Physical 6-3 Dmen who play all situations and put up points get pretty massive returns. That's just what the league is now.
And frankly, Trouba's got more even strength points than Werenski right now despite Columbus scoring more often at 5v5. And Zach's in line to make 9.5 mil. I mean of course it's not likely (that Trouba would be traded - if he was, this would be the sort of return), but it kinda makes sense for you guys as a franchise with a sizable amount of cap room, guys like Nyqvist and Voracek coming off the books and not a ton of alternative avenues to bring a comparable player in for cheaper - particularly without giving up picks. I mean Peeke is rough in his current role. Ceulmans if he hits his ceiling is merely as good as Trouba and you're going to need some time to develop your F's.
I think the only way it doesn't make much sense as a roster building idea is if you're <em>trying</em> to tank. But frankly I think your roster is too good to effectively tank.