Senators just paid Ceci for Zaitsev. Smith >>>>>>>>>>>>> Zaitsev. what are you doing with this trade.

Also you're going to need to add Valimaki or Andersson to make that Calgary trade make sense.

You not going to get a top prospect and a first round pick for Kreider.

Ottawa paid Ceci who was going to get a big raise for a top 4 defenseman who has term and cost certainty. In the long run they save money. And smith is not better than Zaitsev.

Not going to get Bennett and a first for Kreider either unless he has already agreed to a long term extension. Bennett is still a RFA and Calgary owns his rights until he gets an offer sheet or Calgary trades him away. Kreider is a UFA at the end of the year and a first and a middle 6 forward with grit is way too much. Maybe you could get Mangiapane and a first.

Smith is not better than Zaitsev?

Jeez let's not get in the way of facts....



These charts are objective. Instead of trusting an idiot on their computer or you or me. We let the on-ice performance speak for itself.

Also, Smith is not better than Ceci?



Smith is probably the best of the 3 lol.

Where were we...oh yeah Kreider.

It's worth looking at what our comparables are for a Kreider deal- a preseason/early in the year deal: That would be Pacioretty and Turris.

Perhaps the dumbest thing you can do as a stat evaluator is never look at TOI. I see you made this mistake here.

Pacioretty in the 3 full seasons before his trade was good for 0.93 goals/60 mins. Sounds good. But Kreider has him beat at 1.01 Goals/60 mins the last 3 seasons.

But hey Kreider is 1 dimensional Patches has him beat when it comes to assis......... actually Kreider has Pacioretty beat there too in the same time frame 1.08 to 0.9.

But really it's Pacioretty's affect off the scoreboard that has him being the superior player...

Let's look at their on ice contributions.
Pacioretty
Goal Differential: 0.01
Expected Goal Differential: 0.1
Shot Differential: 2.99
Scoring Chance Differential: 5.47

Kreider:

Goal Differential/60: 0.64
Expected Goal Differential/60: 0.46
Shot Differential/60: 4.82
Scoring Chance Differential/60: 8.5

WAR tries to encompass everything you can measure on the ice:
Pacioretty during that time frame was worth 0.062 Wins Above Replacement / 60 mins (148th in the league Tied with both Derek Ryan and Nick Cousins) Kreider was worth 0.095 during that time (37th in the league just ahead of Tarasenko and McKinnon)


So normally for a player with Superior Goal Rate, Assist Rate, Better Team Contributions, & Better Defense, You'd assume they'd get more in a trade regardless of anything else. BUT Kreider is also a year younger AND healthier (Patches missed about 20% of the season in his year pre-trade).

So yeah. I think we're talking about different value here. Patches is great don't get me wrong. Kreider is a top 15 LW.


Here's some visuals:

To recap: Pacioretty received Nick Suzuki (Top 40 prospect) + Tatar (top 6 forward signed long term) + 2nd round pick

Turris received Sam Girard (Top 40 prospect) + Kamenev (Top 100 prospect) + 2nd round pick.

Kreider is FAR AND AWAY superior to both of them. I'm not asking for much more. Just a Top 40 Prospect + A top 100 prospect or Top 6 forward signed long term + a 1st instead of 2nd because Kreider is (as I've demonstrated) significantly better...

Not sure what's so hard to understand.

And yet 14 teams inquired about Zaitsev to some degree and 6 put offers out there for him to be in their top 4 yet nobody offered anything for Smith even at 50% retained but yeah Smith is better.

Kreider...at the draft he was shopped extensively and nobody was even remotely close to biting. Colorado was the closest but they weren’t offering their first plus Kaut or Bowers. A second and Bowers was probably the best they could get for Kreider.

And i know it might shock you but gms still use the eye test more than charts which can be arranged to show almost any desired result.

If Kreider could have brought in a package like that, Gorton would have moved him ages ago. The fact that he is still around at this point shows that they are not getting that Home Run deal. They can still get a solid deal, but no way they get Valimaki.

Mangiapane I could live with.