What part is realistic? The part where a 50+ point legend gets 700k? Or the part where Meier only gets 5 mil? Not happening dude. Jumbo will get at least 2 mill while Meier will get at minimum 5.6 mill.

Marleau will get somewhere around 750K-1.5

watch and wait. These numbers are spot on. meier may even go as low as 2yrs, 4M per. He had one big year. He is still 22. The sharks do not sign guys in his spot to 6 year deals, like the nylander one. They have a LOOOONG history of 1-2 year bridges. Look back at hertl, pavelski, couture, tierney, and others and you will see. meier will sign a bridge at 5M per max. Also, labanc may end up between 2-3M and I could see his being a 1 year "show me" deal for just 2M. Tierney signed a 1 year "show me" deal for under 1M, then emerged for 40 pts, and got paid well (2 yrs, 6M) for showing [then got dealt]. Labanc still has some major flaws that will keep him from the big bucks. If he signs a 1 yr 2M deal, then puts together a strong 2 way season, He'll cash in much bigger on the next deal.

Jumbo will take whatever is left. He could care less about an extra million. its not about what he's worth (on the open market, someone would throw 4M at him), it's about the team for him. he's 40. he's rich. another million matters zero to him. Dougie bought his loyalty by finding 8M to give him after a major knee injury, and then another 5M after a second knee injury. Jumbo wants a last chance at a cup. Dougie will give it to him. Jumbo will be happy to take league min for that shot...

I would add that patty is in the exact same boat. hes also to be 40. he has millions. he cares nothing of 1M more. he'll also take league min or whatever is left over.

neither jumbo or patty would want to force the sharks to trade a guy like labanc or force pavs to walk to get paid more. They want a chance to win the cup in SJ. league min gives them the best chance at it.

Pavelski is a bit different. He may take a small hometown discount, but he is still rightly looking for bigger money. Thus, the only way to keep him in teal is to offer significant term. Dougie is hesitant to do that, for good reason, but I think keep pavs for a while is very important.

Not even close man...sorry..but no.

Last I checked Marleau is still a Cane. He should stay there.

zero chance he stays a cane. He has already publicly said that he only wants to play for the sharks next year. His home is SJ, he sold his toronto house but I believe still has his SJ house. It's always been the plan to retire in SJ. This was a simple 1st rounder in exchange for buyout cap space. pure and simple. I put the chances that he is a shark this season at 80%+.

As for the cap numbers, Dougie will not offer meier more than 2 yrs, 5M per. Could he get a 6x6M offer sheet? yes. maybe even 7x7. Possible. but I am not sure meier would sign it anyways for two reasons:

1. The sharks have invested alot in him and there is a sense of loyalty and happiness around the sharks culture. Any offer sheet team would be some team that might suck.
2. If he signs a 2 yr, 5M per bridge. Then plays the two years and puts up 70+ pts in each, as he very well might, then 6-7M would be waay too low. At that point, dougie would give him 5 years, 8M per. take the 2 yr, 10M + 5 yr, 40M and you get 7 years for 50M. That's actually more money than the 7x7 that he might get in an offer sheet. Not to mention playing in a great place with a great culture and a great chance to each year. Meier has seen that cooch got his money. Pavs got his money. After the bridge deal, Dougie tends to follow up with 5-8 year extensions at big money.

It makes all the sense in the world for Meier to take a bridge then cash in big at age 24 or 25.

Labanc is a higher risk situation, so it makes more sense for him to take a possible 1 year show me. If he wants 5+ years, he'll get no more than 4M or 4.5M per most likely in an offer sheet. I could not imagine an offer sheet coming at 6M+. If he were to sign a 5x4.5 offer, he gets 22.5M. but if he takes a 2 yr, 6M bridge, and rocks it (50+ pts, better defensively). He'll cash in well above 5M per for 5+ years.

Both guys are in a position to ash in much larger in the longer term.

They are also both very different from similar aged RFAS like Marner, rantanen, laine, connor, Werenski or the like because those guys have put up multiple huge seasons, and have multiple top line production years. Even Nylander had two 60+ pt seasons before holding out last year. Meier and labanc both have only one real season of top 6 performance (even labanc is iffy if he is that category right now). As such, they still need to prove themselves but can cash in majorly if they do. Bridge deals are, by nature, shorter and cheaper, than anything a UFA would get, so thats why meier wont be bridged at 6+, nor labanc much above 3.

If you go based on the 4-4.5% Hertl and Couture got, your Meier deal is actually high. Labancs is a tad low, but he really ended up being a PP specialist/3rd liner. So maybe he takes a cut.

If Jumbo wants to stay, he has to take the minimum with the cap crunch. If Patty gets bought out, same with him.

Pavelski's deal is the only one I just don't know about. Other teams could offer much more term/aav. I don't pay any attention to the "far apart" stuff in the media. Classic negotiating.

Everything is a ballpark guess of course. Meier be 2 x 4.5. Bancer might be 2x3.2 or whatever. together, I see them as under 8M total.

As for pavelski, I say he is resigned with a 2/3 probability. He wants to stay. The sharks want him to stay. The whole "far off" idea is BS. That said, if dougie holds firm on term, then pavs may get a deal elsewhere that he wont refuse. I hope dougie gives in on the term to keep the AAV down and keep the gang together for one last romp.

That said, as I see it, the following teams have the space and desire to make a pitch for pavs north of 7M with 3+ term: COL, CLB, NJ, MIN, BUF, VAN.

Which of those teams would pavs want to go to, even for an extra Mil or two? Colorado would be interesting perhaps, but the rest could be bottom feeders. Compare that to sticking around SJ, where his family and home are and where he will have a chance to compete for a cup as captain every year: Seems like a pretty easy call assuming dougie is not insultingly low in his offer.

There simply arent that many teams that can add a big salary and those that can are generally teams with issues. CLB without panarin, bob, or duchene? Not a great destination. NJ is exciting, but could be at the very bottom as they were this year. BUF? argh. Minny, declining and missed the POs. VAN? on the improve but still seemingly miles away.

And BTW, I would add that the same issue exists in terms of offer sheets. Few teams have the space to make offer sheets, and those that do might be very hesitant to lose the picks that go with them.

The low cap seems to hurt, but the abundance of high end RFA's, combined with the lower cap makes a nice brew for reasonable salaries and terms.

The thing is the fans and media will spin this "OH THE RFAS WILL WANT MORE THAN THAT" **** allnday but this is pretty close. Look at what kapanen and johnsson just signed for. They got less than people said over longer terms. Nobody if offersheeting Meier. Nobody

Yep. The whole 'R' part of RFA is crucial. They are restricted. the teams hold all the leverage, so comparing with what a UFA would get is foolish. Offer sheeting comes with serious risks:

1. usually you have to overpay
2. You lose a ton of picks, and only teams that have not dealt picks can even make an offer sheet. Any team that has dealt a pick that would be required in an offer sheet is immediately excluded from offering one.
3. You become persona non grata in the GM universe. Its an act of war in many ways.

League-wide, the most recent offer sheet was ryan orielly in 2013. That basically tells you all you need to know about this...

If you think it annoys you just imagine how badly it annoys me as a leaf fan. I hear it 24/7 when even if it happened, there are 3 or more better RFAs out there to pick from, and no reason for someone to think its a leaf. First it was "there is no way Kapanen and Johnsson sign for less than 4 mil" Then they sign 3-4 year deals at just over 3 lol. Every leaf fan with a clue predicted those deals within a few 100k.
Then Marner, why the **** would someone offersheet a playmaking winger and not a 40+ goal scoring centre in Point, who TB actually cant/wont pay him 11+ mil?
The hockey media is a joke. All they have to do is use facts like you just did, base a deal on other deals the same GM and team signed in the past, and combine it with what the player is worth compared to others who signed at his age/success. 5 mil 2 years is not that bad. Like Marner, Meiers production is a bit inflated with who he plays with, and no player get credit for all that

Thank you for the vote of confidence...

I am actually surprised at the 3+ mil numbers for those guys. Has it be finalized? I was looking for the final numbers but havent found 'em. Giving johnsson 3 years is foolish as he'll be a 27 year old UFA then. Better to give two years and maintain leverage or make it 4-5 years and get a discount on a few UFA years. 2-3 for kapanen makes more sense. To be honest, I would think both should be in the 2 yr, 2M per range since both have had just one real NHL season. 3x3 is actually kinda steep for an RFA, with one NHL full NHL season, even if it was a 20-20 year. Playing on such an offensively stacked team might have been as much of a contributor to those numbers as the players themselves. Still, 3M per is reasonable.

Marner will get alot, but it should not be 10+. he is not matthews or mcdavid. Besides if Dubas gives him an 5x10 type deal, similar to matthews (just a bit below), then two bad things happen:

1. Marner is a 28 year old UFA when it is done. Like the Johnsson comment above, Dubas looses all leverage by signing away all RFA years while requiring no UFA years and losing all leverage when the deal is done.
2. 10M on the cap means required trades (kadri and Brown to start, Zeitsev too), but still very limited fund to address a nonexistant D corps after Reilly and Muzzin.

I dunno if Dubas can get marner to also take a bridge (2yr x7M per type) but he's gotta try hard. Putting another 10+M salary with term means upwards of 40M locked into just 4 forwards for the next several years. That's a pretty impressive chunk of change that will make the team very vulnerably defensively, and make depth a big issue. Maybe Sandin is ready, Maybe Hollowell makes the leap. Not sure, but Dubas puts himself into a corner if he gives marner 10+.

Gunna be interesting...

And speaking of point, it is gunna be tricky for them. They were able to get rid of miller with a good return, but it's still pretty tight for the bolts. I forgot about him. Man there are a huge number of ridiculous RFA's. Meier, with his 30-30+ season is like way down on the list. Remarkable...

Johnsson is a 4 year deal, if he leaves then so be it, Kapanen is a 3 year and Im almost positive hes still RFA then.
Marner can come in at 10-11 mil but it has to be over 8 years. On a 5 year deal if you use Pat Kane as his best comparable he should be 9 x 5 years. He has an ego though apparently and if he needs to go he can, the leafs are fine without him and the 4 1st round picks if a GM is insane enough

Looking around the league, the low cap has really put most teams in a bind financially. Afrer resigning their own FAs, I have trouble seeing where the money is gunna come for offer sheets, let along big offers for the top UFAs. I know that FLA is chasing bob and bread, but Duchene is worht 8-9M somewhere. Dzingel should get 5. Pavelski gets 7. Nyquist 5-6M.... Add in the trades that need to happen to fit in the RFAs (like zeitsev and Kadri) and I am not seeing enough money sloshing around to made the dollar amounts equal the "worths". I think there will be a bit of salary deflation....

Its a really great year to be colorado. They are young, exciting, and have tons of space. Even after resigning rantanen, Kerfoot, and zadorov, they should have nearly 20M under the cap to go shopping. They could easily resign Wilson and then add Duchene, Nyqist, and maybe one for solid middle 6 forward. last year, they were a one-line team, but this summer they could sign a whole solid line. With the lower cap and all these other teams strapped, this is the colorado summer.

He said he wants to play for the Sharks tho

What does everyone think:
Should Joe Thornton make over or under 1 mil?