That's a good thought., assuming the Rangers don't want to spend to the cap this year. Just guessing the Rangers will buy him out but still has his 6.5m cap hit

This move still gives the Rangers enough flexibility to get all their RFA's signed. That would put them to the cap but they could also move guys like Namestnikov, Vesey, Kreider, Shattenkirk with retention (if Pionk and Braun were traded there has to be someone willing to take Shatty at 3.3M) to create more cap room if needed.

Yea, Rangers taking on any unnecessary cap this depends on what the direction the team. is taking this year. If it a year where they don't go all in on UFAs like Panarin, then it might be deal. But if the Rangers are in sell mode...maybe TDL deals for their UFAs , then the Rangers are flush with cap in summer of 2020.

And if they still want to pursue Parnarin they could still theoretically but moving the guys I listed above or buying out Staal. It wouldn't be easy but definitely doable. After Strome's resurgence last season I don't see why a team wouldn't give at least a 3rd for a guy who is still an RFA after next year. They definitely have flexibility to absorb Marleau's contract and get Parnarin.

Smiths buyout cap hit is 970k this year and 3.1m next, then 1.1 next two. Why would they take on 6.5 min to keep a 2.1m cap hit this year and only save 1m next year? 3rd round pick isnt worth that, just buy him out and leave you guys to figure out Marleau elsewhere.

Because even with the moves they made so far I don't think they are a legit contender. If they could avoid paying smith for 4 years I think that is valuable. Marleau would come off the books after this year. Plus Girardi has a 3.1M cap hit this year from his buyout. Smith, Staal, Shattenkirk all come off the following year. Why keep paying these guys after that if they don't have to. Rangers aren't exactly strapped for cash either. They can afford to make a move like this. Maybe you get more draft compensation than. But I think the ground work of this deal could really benefit the Rangers in the long run.

If the Rangers miss out on Panarin, they might entertain this idea if Toronto throws in AJ or KK

The ground work sure. But the numbers you chose make less sense. Giradi's cap hit falls to 1.1m next year. Retaining almost half of Smith AND taking Marleau this year doesnt save them enough in the long run to not be able to go for Panarin. So this deal would have to happen post July 1, when the Rangers miss on Panarin, and cant buy out Marleau at that point, so he doesnt even waive to come to NY because he wants to be out west.

I think this deal and Parnarin are not related at all. You could still make this deal, sign your RFA's and sign Parnarin if you wanted to. Maybe the amount retained for Smith changes and/or draft compensation changes but this trade doesn't have to happen after the buyout period is over.

What would you retain on Smith and/or what compensation would you want to make this trade work?

Honestly if the Rangers felt they were out on Panarin, i would trade Smith for Marleau straight up no retention, and buy him out same day.