New York says yes and instantly sends the team jet to pick up Kasperi.

How much am I overvaluing Pionk here? Drop the Toronto 3rd? Add more going back to Toronto?

Swap zaitsev and pionk.... Marleau isn’t getting orpik’d... please deal with it. Looks like the only way he is moved is with retained salary and a waived clause.

I have no horse in the Marleau getting Orpik'd race: merely speculating what the roster is projected to shape up to be. I can't see him being moved otherwise: he's got a full NMC and moved his young children with the intention of raising his family in Toronto. The decision to leave his family for a season is his alone. If there's no situation where he isn't coming back to Toronto, it's most likely not happening.

Why are we swapping Zaitsev and Pionk's placement on the roster when Zaitsev has only looked like an NHL-calibre defenceman alongside Muzzin?

Oh and idmf markeau does disappear, it would be ennis and Moore on kadri’s wing with petan and Bracco in the 4th line. At least to start.

Ennis and/or Moore I can understand, but why Bracco? Are the Leafs trying to take a page out of Edmonton's Puljujarvi book?

Broke the leafs rookie defence assist record with Rielly and has proven to be a shut down guy. Gardiner has a positive +/- single handedly gifted to him by zaitsev. To be honest zaitsev made muzzin look good, not the other way around. Pionk is a dumpster fire on defence (yes his team and age are a factor) pair him with muzzin.

Even if you dropped the 3rd, the Rangers would still be head over heels for this move.

Exact opposite, Bracco has been developing nicely. He starts on the 4th line and earns his way up. When he is signed to a cheap one way deal for 2 years then put him with Matthews. Moore would be the one that gets pool party’d if we left him to waste on the 4th line.

I'll adjust accordingly then.



So define earning his way up then. Bracco has put in two full seasons at the AHL level, and has been dominant this season and in the playoffs. There is a valid excuse to keeping him in the AHL - and it is for that cheap extension - and it's a route that might be more than viable for the Leafs this season. It's a bit risky betting on Moore to match any form of production Bracco could achieve in that #3RW slot; he has a lower points per game average in the AHL than Bracco does in more games and as an older player. Moore's production and usage suggests quality 4th liner. He's 24 years old, what more is to be expected from him?

Fair warning, my response to your position on Zaitsev is long.

Piece by piece, I'll break this down.

1. Breaking the Leafs rookie assist record
This means absolutely nothing in the long run. If anything, it suggests that the Leafs don't produce quality rookie defenders that jump into the league as automatic successes. The +1 or +2 years are when the player establishes themselves. Why Zaitsev's assist total from two entire seasons and three first round exits ago suggest he's capable of successfully playing on Toronto's top pair is lost on me. With all the firepower available to this roster, it's almost inexcusable that Zaitsev makes as much as he does and not be able to at least match points with the benchmark he set for assists that year.

2. Has proven himself to be a shutdown guy
I'll be referring to the following chart that can be used to compare players based on how they perform relative to their peers: https://public.tableau.com/shared/8SK3ZNPCT?:display_count=yes

The short answer to this is that Zaitsev has proven himself to be an average shutdown player at best. Like when everything clicks for him, when everything's going right, he's a typical NHL defender. He's middling at preventing zone entries with possession per 60 minutes of icetime, but in-game situations he's in the bottom quartile (read: three quarters of ALL NHL defencemen are better at preventing zone entries than Zaitsev is). To me, that suggests he's actually the opposite of good at shutting down the opposition.

I know Babcock has raved about his ability to disrupt a cycle, and that Zaitsev is effectively thrown to the wolves in terms of dZS%, but consider the provided comparison of Kris Russell: when a player who is widely known to not be a positive NHL player, is handsomely overpaid, and by all means shouldn't maintain NHL employment (given how replaceable his skillset is), looks as similar to Zaitsev as he does, Zaitsev might not be a quality defender.

If you think analytics are the devil, there's a reason why Boston - this playoffs and past - pressured Zaitsev's partner more than they did him. His partner would be forced to pass to Zaitsev, attempt a risky pass, or ice the puck. Nearly every time would result in a turnover or forecheck by the Bruins that resulted in Toronto losing possession. Zaitsev's the weak link, and praise from Babcock and his archaic coaching philosophies is probably more damning than the numbers.

3. Gardiner's +/-
Has more to do with Gardiner putting up (on average over the last 3 years) 25 points at 5v5 per season. Considering Zaitsev doesn't even have a career average of 25 points PER season, I'm highly skeptical that ol' Nikky Zaitsev is the reason why Gardiner has a good plus-minus.

4. Zaitsev made Muzzin look good during the playoffs
And here's how I know you eat leaded paint chips for offseason amusement.

Nikita Zaitsev maintains a career CF% average of 44.9% in the playoffs. In this year's loss to the Bruins, he had an even 44.0% CF%. All of his advanced stats either remained par with his career playoff average or dipped below it. Jake Muzzin sports a career CF% in the playoffs of 55.2%. In this year's edition of "We Can't Beat Boston", he had a 47.2% CF%. All of Muzzin's advanced stats were lower than his career playoff average. What would cause Muzzin to drop nearly 10% in percentage of shot differential? Toronto has a much stronger offence than any modern Kings team has had, so naturally he must be on the ice for more shot attempts for? Even if the pairing is hemmed in their zone, and it must be noted that the Muzzin-Zaitsev pairing got the lion's share of defensive zone starts (>60%), surely the offence would balance out if Zaitsev was a competent partner? Any successful breakout is likely to result in a shot attempt, so why do the numbers not match up? Why did Muzzin see his advanced stats drop while Zaitsev's hardly moved?

Truth is Zaitsev, true to all the preceding analytics, is at best an average NHL defender that plays more typically at replacement level. Muzzin is a legitimate defensive stalwart and has the numbers to back it up. Zaitsev is an actual anchor on skates. This is not a good NHL player, contrary to whatever flawed eye test is saying. When I see Zaitsev play, I see dead plays. I see him bomb it down the ice for an unnecessary icing. I see him pressured by forecheckers and fast players because he doesn't have the skill or hockey IQ to keep up with the NHL game. His sheltered minutes and PP usage in his rookie season inflated his stats, and Lou Lamoriello bought high on a bad bet.

5. Pionk is a dumpster fire in his own end
I do agree with Pionk being hot ass in his own zone based off all the metrics and claims by NYR fans I've seen, but the Leafs have no other choice but to keep Zaitsev and Muzzin together. They cannot afford to handicap Reilly the way they did Muzzin in the playoffs: Reilly is a true Norris-calibre defenceman, and nobody on that team can move the puck and defend as good as he does. If his ability to transition out of the zone or oZS% is reduced, Toronto's production as a whole drops. Your options are TVR or Pionk in that #1RD slot, and TVR has never played anywhere close to the minutes that Reilly does. Pionk has, and in this scenario the Leafs would need to bank on Pionk quickly forgetting anything that Lindy Ruff taught him and hope that Reilly's stability paired with Pionk's ability to move the puck would result in positive growth for young Neal. The Dermott-Zaitsev pairing was an absolutely chaotic tire fire during the regular season, so even suggesting that in order to free up Muzzin is off the table.

Muzzin is the only defenceman that Zaitsev has truly looked "useful" alongside of late, and it's probably a testament to how good Muzzin is defensively. Reilly is too important to the team's ability to be an offensive juggernaut to be hamstrung by Zaitsev's negative play. Dermott would fail horrendously if routinely paired with Zaitsev.

Here's the thing about Pionk. Very talented offensively who hit a brick wall last year in terms of production. He still needs to learn how to play NHL defense but he was also being coached last year by Lindy effing Ruff. He also spent most of his time playing with Marc Staal, who's too old and slow to even be a mediocre defensive defenseman anymore. I think he gets a lot gripe from fellow Ranger fans that is mostly unfair. It was his first full rookie season. I think he still has a ton of potential upside, he just doesn't really have a spot in the future.

Me personally, I thank you for being realistic with the leafs position with Kapenan. They can't trade him for a year if they match an offer sheet, and the leafs didn't lose in the game 7 of the SCF, so they aren't a single piece away from winning a cup. He's not going to take a discounted contract because it could very well be his last NHL contract (injuries happen, even to young guys).

I think its about a fair value for a guy who's only had 1 good season with 45 points.

Also, if the Rangers could 'Oprik' Marleau's contract for a good piece, I'd also be down to do that.