Please tell me what you expect their cap hits to be?

Assuming an $83m cap ceiling and your suggestion to trade Brown (for a draft pick so 0 dollars coming back)...the leafs would have $16,215,301 to fill 7 roster spots...and that also assumes a bottom pairing of Rosen and Holl.

So...for the sake of maximizing cap space...let's say 3 of those spots are filled with league minimum players at $700k each and 1 gets used by Bracco. You now have $13,272,801 to get Marner, Kapanen and Johnsson signed. How does that get split up?

You'd have to do 1yr extensions for $9m, $2m and $2m to make it work....all in all...it's not realistic

Unbelievably wrong .... and you didn't even mention their expected cap-hits ....

That's the crux of the argument isn't it?

Name them or admit defeat .... Kapanen, Johnsson, Marner will cost?

Marner likely $9.5m for 3 years over $10m on 5 years and longer

Kapanen I'm guessing 1-2 year extension close to $3m

Johnsson maybe a bit less than Kapanen. I see him going to salary arb and getting a 1yr deal for $2.8ish

I used your estimates for the below team (which fits under an $83,000,000 cap without losing any key players).

My salary estimates are very similar ... but the short terms you suggested would make them slightly lower:

Marner = $9,500,000 x 5/6 years or $8,500,000 x 3 years
Kapanen = $3,000,000 x 2 years or $2,750,000 x 1 year
Johnsson = $2,750,000 x 2 years or $2,500,000 x 1 year

Here's the roster with your numbers:

11.0 = Tavares
11.6 = Matthews
10.0 = Marner
6.96 = Nylander
6.25 = Marleau
4.50 = Kadri
3.00 = Kapanen
2.80 = Johnsson
2.25 = Hyman
0.84 = Bracco
0.78 = Moore
0.75 = Petan
0.68 = Gauthier

5.00 = Rielly
4.00 = Muzzin
1.45 = Mayfield
0.86 = Dermott
0.80 = Oziganov
0.75 = Rosen
0.70 = Borgman
0.68 = Holl

5.00 = Andersen
0.75 = Sparks

1.20 = Kessel (retained)

--------------------------------

$82,500,000 = Total For 23 Man Roster (Including Kessel's RST)
$500,000 = Remaining Cap-Space

Notes:

1) I let Gardiner + Hainsey + Ennis walk (Ennis could stay for $1,000,000 or less).
2) I traded Zaitsev (estimated cost of moving his contract = mid-pick + prospect).
3) I traded for RD Scott Mayfield (estimated cost = Brown + mid-pick + prospect).
4) Hainsey (or any UFA with a cap-hit under $2,000,000) could replace Mayfield.
5) The D-Line is weak (but Rosen, Borgman, Sandin or Liljegren should step up).

Roster:

Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Kappy - Matthews - Willy
Johnson - Kadri - Bracco
Moore - Marleau - Petan
(Marchy / Goat / Engvall)

Rielly - Muzzin
Dermott - Mayfield
Rosen - Ozhiganov
Borgman - Holl
(Sandin / Liljegren)

Andersen
Sparks
(Hutch)

--------------------------------

The above cap-situation seems like a worst case scenario though:

1) The NHLPA is likely (based on their history) to use a portion of their 5% inflator clause to raise the cap by 2-3% = $83,000,000 + ($1,700,000 to $2,500,000).
2) It's possible that Marleau comes off the books next year (more likely than most people think):
- Marleau made $18,000,000 over years 1-2 and will only be owed another $1,250,000 after July 1st.
- Marleau's market value was far less than $9,000,000 a year when he signed - so it's fair to assume he agreed to be flexible in year 3 (if his play regressed).
- Marleau's contract seems to be structured for maximum flexibility in year 3 (with regard to trade & buyout options).

Marleau Options Include:

1) L.T.I.R = On Robidas Island (where he can learn the ropes prior to collecting his 7 figure retirement salary as a TML executive).
2) Retirement = Then TOR trades his contract (example = OTT needs to hit the cap-floor and would LOVE a $6,250,000 cap-hit for the cost of $1,250,000 cash).
3) Trade + Re-sign = TOR pays his bonus and trades him (plus futures), he's bought out in the arbitration window and TOR re-signs him (he never left his house).
4) Regular Trade = To a team with cap-space or a budget team who cares more about his $1,250,000 salary than his $6,250,000 cap-hit (examples = OTT, ARI, etc).

Those are all reasonable and possible scenarios. But the original comment was to not re-sign hainsey and Gardiner and then trade brown and it all works.

By moving another 4.5m off in zaitsev solves cap problems but weakens defence....which maybe they accept as reality for next year.

We also can’t confirm the nhl will set an $83m cap. Maybe they make it $81.5 and let the PA inflate it to $83

In any case, more cap than just a Connor brown will need to be moved out.

As stated:

I used his numbers in this scenario ... to confirm that we didn't have to move Nylander or Kapanen with his estimates.

Mine wouldn't require swapping Zaitsev for Mayfield (but I'd do it anyways if possible).

And $83,000,000 is where Bettman projected the cap.

So I guess it could be anywhere between $81,500,000 and $84,500,000 before the NHLPA decides to inflate it.