Step 1: Sign all the guys I think we should resign that are currently Toronto Maple Leafs/Marlies. External FA's are for later. Matthews gets 12, Marner gets 9, I don't think either are unreasonable. Same goes for Johnsson at 2.5 and Kappy at 3.75. All four guys are a key part to the Leafs taking the next step.
Step 2: Look at the available cap the leafs have with my revised roster. At this point, they are 4.2 mil over the cap. Huge problem. They need to shed some money
Step 3: Trade Nikita Zaitsev. So why are we trading Zaitsev and not anyone else? For starters, he has a lot of term on his contract left. His cap hit is also high. He could be a valuable player when not in the horrible Gardiner-Zaitsev pairing and I would love to see him paired with Dermott, but his salary just doesn't work into this teams plans. He goes to NJ in this mock, but it could be anywhere. We give up picks to offload his because either teams don't want to absorb his deal but we don't want to retain salary. We move back 2 rounds in the 2020 draft from Rd 2 to 4. I don't know if the price will be quite this steep, but if its what it takes, I'd do it.
Step 4: Trade Connor Brown. At this point the leafs are 300k under the cap, with a hole at RHD that Zaitsev left behind. More cap room clearing needed! Trevor Moore is ready to take a role as a starting winger, and he's every bit as good as Brown is. He gets dealt to Vancouver for a 3rd. VAN is happy with Leivo, figure the winger trade route has been established there.
Step 5: Add a Veteran defensemen. It's clear this piece won't be a great defensemen for the 1.5 mil I assigned this player. I'm not expecting guys like Myers, Stralman, and Jensen, all of which I'd be happy to fill this role. I understand they will probably sign for more money elsewhere. This probably is a DMan from the tier below. Think of it is a Ron Hainsey upgrade. Not ideal, but what cap situation warrants
Reflection on what this team is:
Forwards: Pretty much the same as this year. They are going to score.... a lot. Kapanen and Johnsson stay. Brown is the only one on the outs, which I'm okay with, his change to Moore isn't a big deal.
Defense: Solid top 4, but big hole at 2nd pair RHD. Liljegren and Rosen are both young and leave a lot to be desired in their own end, feel free to edit this pair.
Goalies: Same as this year
PS After writing this whole bit, I realize our 2nd Pair RHD problem can be solved in Matthews ends up signing a 6 year deal at less AAV, say 10 mil/year. The clears up an extra 2 mil, meaning the RHD can have a cap hit of 3.5 mil/year, and the team can still end up with 1 mil or so in buffer room. This will allow us to chase the Jensen/Stralman/Myers tier, and create a solid, solid top 4 with a bottom pair with promise (but not a sure thing)
2 problems, first you forgot about ozzy, secondly I’m not sure if Lilly will be ready. So yes we may need a cheap vet or possibly use Borgman in the bottom pair.
Why didn't you go all the way and identify who the LRD would be? Girardi? Lovejoy?
Sadly, I disagree with your strategy though. I would prefer to keep my defense squad above average and get rid of Nylander. He wont deliver on his new contract but will get you excellent return with his new AAV. With so much offensive weapons, you can afford it and keep the prospect mill turning...
Again PIT proved you can win a cup with a below average defense. Maybe you are right...
Also i don't think Matthews/Marner will accept any discount. And TOR will want to lock them as long as possible, 8 years. Why let them go UFA 2 years early? Doesn't make any sense, even if Pierre Lebrun talked about that option...
2 problems, first you forgot about ozzy, secondly I’m not sure if Lilly will be ready. So yes we may need a cheap vet or possibly use Borgman in the bottom pair.
I didn't forget Ozzy, but rather sent him back to Russia. His contract expired. His play this year has not been bad by any means. I think Dermott has really inflated his stats and I'm unsure of his individual value. Additionally with aitsev gone, he might feel disconnected to the team off the ice and in practices and stuff (Zaitsev is his translator and best friend I think). Hard to keep him if Zaitsev leaves when he only marginally better than potential replacements. Regarding Lilly, I don't know either. If he isn't Oz can be resigned and play 3RD. Or Borgman. Or anyone else.
Why didn't you go all the way and identify who the LRD would be? Girardi? Lovejoy?
Sadly, I disagree with your strategy though. I would prefer to keep my defense squad above average and get rid of Nylander. He wont deliver on his new contract but will get you excellent return with his new AAV. With so much offensive weapons, you can afford it and keep the prospect mill turning...
Again PIT proved you can win a cup with a below average defense. Maybe you are right...
Also i don't think Matthews/Marner will accept any discount. And TOR will want to lock them as long as possible, 8 years. Why let them go UFA 2 years early? Doesn't make any sense, even if Pierre Lebrun talked about that option...
Appreciate the compliments, I'll respond to each part of your reply individually.
1) I didn't identify the LHD because I don't know each one well enough to pick one I thought fit. I trust Dubas to make that judgement call. Also leaves room for people like you to make evaluations of your own. Who do u think fits in that spot?
2) I'm personally strongly opposed to trading Willie. I think he will rebound and be the great winger he once was. But the idea of trading a winger is one I am not scared of, my preferred player to leave would be Kapanen. I personally do not endorse trading for the LHD, but if it had to be done I'd do it with Kappy, not Willie
3) I don't think Matthews or Marner will accept discounts, nor do I think the leafs want to give them shorter deals. Matthews signing for 6 years might not be great for the Leafs, but it is for Matthews. I think Matthews will push for it, and I theorized that he might get it. Doesn't mean the leafs want to give it to him. Remember, theres two sides to the negotiation. I encourage you to look at it from Matthews perspective as well, not just the leafs. In this theory, I gave Matthews less money because shorter deals warrant less money because you buy up fewer UFA years, which are more expensive because the player if unsigned would be able to negotiate on the open market with no restrictions.
Matthews signing for 6 years might not be great for the Leafs, but it is for Matthews. I think Matthews will push for it, and I theorized that he might get it. Doesn't mean the leafs want to give it to him. Remember, theres two sides to the negotiation. I encourage you to look at it from Matthews perspective as well, not just the leafs. In this theory, I gave Matthews less money because shorter deals warrant less money because you buy up fewer UFA years, which are more expensive because the player if unsigned would be able to negotiate on the open market with no restrictions.
By trading Kapanen, you get the cap space you need too. I choose Nylander because I didn't like his attitude and work ethics. Also Kapanen has a hi potential but will only get a bridge deal, helping TML.
I get that to ''buy'' UFA years, you need a higher AAV. If you are Dubas, you throw them as much money as needed to get the 8 years even if you need to get rid of other players. You can substitute ordinary players. You can't get a exact replacement for Matthews in 6 years.
I would add that if the price is right, the players will always choose the contract with the most years, meaning higher total value (with recommandation of his agent, LOL). Hockey is such a violent sport with risks of career ending injuries, it would be ill advised to go for 6 years at a lower AAV, thinking you will hit the jackpot later. Certainty of income is priceless. My 2 cents
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