should be fun 18-19

Connolly 169th in the league in goals last year, playing 70 games on a 3rd line. With 31 teams, there are 186 top six forwards. Even if goal scoring is evenly distributed, and if not being a healthy scratch anymore or getting to play all 82 games wouldn't help Connolly score more goals, there should be 17 teams that would score more goals if they had Brett Connolly as a top six forward right now.

Trading him and a 3rd for a high risk high reward prospect beats losing Conno for nothing as a UFA next summer, sure, but unless the Caps are willing, internally, to give Shumakov a chance to play with the other Russians, there's a decent chance he doesn't break through at the NHL level this year. Does someone else move up to the third line and score like a 2nd line winger, there? Maybe DSP or Gersich comes close, enough? Or is having Vrana in the mix for a whole year already enough that you don't worry about it?

I see Edmonton being more desperate to rent a proven middle six goal scoring winger in his prime than NYI (because Edmonton have three great centers to try to win around, while NYI have one), but of course Ho Sang is about the Isles' fifth best forward prospect by now, so maybe they're ready to cut bait, and get someone proven to keep the ship a little bit steady, where Edmonton wouldn't be willing to give up anyone as valuable? Get that 3rd down to a 4th and a future 5th, and I'd bite, after which I'd stash Ho-Sang in the AHL, offer him a cheap bridge deal for Christmas, and bring him up for a look shortly after he accepts.

Play the guys who aren't waiver exempt, and see if any of them catch fire enough to develop some trade value. Stick Kempny on a second power play unit so he has some trade value in case you need his cap space next summer to chase after a Seguin or a Karlsson as UFAs. Moving Niskanen or Holtby alone won't be enough, and moving both in the same summer could be devastating. With Johansen moving up next summer, they kind of have to be ready to move on from Kempny.... so I hope he keeps playing a lot of easy minutes with Carlson and getting lots more points.

Imo Connelly isn’t nearly as good as you think he is....

At best he would be on the 4th line and at that point I would rather have the picks than the player.

I think Bura will have a good year and if he doesn’t I would play gersich up there no need to keep a guy (bc)who isn’t part of the future when there’s equal or better replacements already here.

You also focus on goals for him. He’s a right place right time type of player.... which is why his shooting % was so high. I doubt he’ll be able to repeat what he did this season. Just like Oshie did the year before. Difference being Oshie is more talented and plays in a top 6 and the caps top 6 has 2 of the top 10-15 centers in it.

His even strength points per sixty minutes were within a thousandth of a point per sixty of Wilson and Burakovsky. I think they tied for like 188th in the league in that stat? Eller was better. The other top liners were better. Oshie was injured last year and should bounce back if he's not playing through a concussion. I think Wilson's contract was ridiculous. I think Connolly has yet to show he can be a top six player, so he might take a medium term deal with a tiny raise to, like, 2M a year, at which point they'd be silly not to sign him for as long as he wants, and then once he signs, they should give him more chances to prove himself as a top six player, and get twenty goals a year out of him for 2M.

There's a lot of bias among Caps fans on this board toward guys drafted by the Caps. Connolly was drafted higher than Kuznetsov, in the same year. DSP was a second round pick a year apart, among a slightly deeper crowd. They're both pretty decently skilled hockey players.

But more than that I think we're all divided on here as to whether the Caps are pedal to the metal trying to win right away, in which case even if Connolly is in the press box, you keep him, or whether they're gradually retooling to try to stay relevant post-Ovechkin. Before the playoffs I think we all agreed that it was either retool or rebuild, but the Cup win changes a whole lot of what options are available. Without that Cup win, they don't sign random guys like Shumakov. With that Cup win, they can PTO guys like Vermette, Lehtonen, and maybe even Emelin, and keep whoever is in game shape, while their waiver-exempt kids keep cooking in the AHL, to help them stay relevant later.

Those seven playoff goals that Connolly scored, they each counted as much as the two playoff goals Stephenson scored. In a one for one, Connolly for Ho-Sang is fine. But since Connolly was 6th on the Champs in playoff goals, and 8th in points, the Caps could reasonably ask the Isles to toss in a 4th, or a good AHLer. https://www.nhl.com/capitals/stats

I know that teams want to value their own first round picks a lot, and that a former free agent doesn't count quite as much even though he was picked much higher in a different first round, but so far JHS has, in parts of two seasons, played on a pace for a dozen goals in his rookie year, and a bunch of assists. In three years, he might be better than Connolly. He probably will. But this year he probably won't. If you're trading one for the other, it's probably because next year JHS might be cheaper than BC, but how many bonuses are in JHS' contract right now? Is he even cheaper right now? I don't think he'll be cheaper next year, or significantly better within the next two years, so I'd shrug, keep Connolly, and keep that third line together that helped Burakovsky and Eller do so well in the finals.

If you want a cheap prospect from the Isles for a third, it looks like they still don't have a spot for Fritz on their roster. Maybe offer a 6th to get him to Hershey? he's outscored JHS in Bridgeport. Then you get to keep Connolly, and still add a forward prospect from a team like the Isles that has an embarrassment of riches there? My objections to trading Connolly and a 3rd for Ho-Sang, in order, are: 1. the Isles pass because they're tanking and adding BC to their second line makes them win more games by adding twenty goals to the mix (between him and Komarov, I think they might replace a lot of the offense they lost in free agency, unless Lee was just a product of Tavares, 2. Shumakov is a high risk high reward signing. He could score 55 points this year, or he could score two and then announce he hates playing in North America and isn't coming back, in which case as you've said, you're relying on Shane Gersich who has one NHL point in his post-college audition of eight games, or you're moving Smith-Pelly up to the third line, where he's certainly got enough skills with the puck, but his skating might make him a liability, and 3. Connolly was 6th in playoff goals on the champions so he is worth more than a non-playoff team's fifth-best forward prospect. Isles need to sweeten the pot. Maybe if they throw in Fritz for the third, maybe.... but the Caps are still losing on value. Connolly's ESP/60 equalled Wilson, so his ceiling for this year is top line passenger. As a former top 15 pick who just turned 26, he can still keep learning and improving. Barzal might set him up for 30 goals.