Let’s Face the Facts

Drafting in hockey isn't like drafting in other sports. Out of the top 3 or 4 picks, usually it's a crap shoot. Even in those top 3-4 picks it's not common to find a generational talent.
The reason for that is they draft them so young. 18 is hard to gauge a player. Look at glass. He's 6'2 and 170lbs. There is no way being so light he could handle a full NHL year. He needs to add 30-50 lbs to his frame, then the question becomes can he still play with that much weight added.
You look at some of the other players you can see that. Matthews is 6'2 200lbs, McDavid is 190. His lack of upper body strength though is one of the reasons he totally sucks at faceoffs. It was also why the Oilers got stuck putting a player like Lucic on his wing to try to protect him, because the GM knew he was too small when he first came in.

This isn't to say that glass won't be a good player, the point is, no one really knows what they have till they start to fill out and get to that next level. There have been a ton of players who put up 100+ points in the canadian leagues, (just about every NHL players from canada put up 100 poitns) but that doesn't mean they really make the transition to difference maker player. That very reason is why teams are willing to trade prospects for a known quantity. You can usually tell what you are dealing with when you get a player to the AHL level. Because those are older players, physically mature, and experienced. Trying to judge players before that is not really a great way to go about it. That's why the NHL is taking more and more players from the NCAA. They come out at 21-22 years old and you can see what you are getting. I think 30+% of nhl players now are from the NCAA. It use to be a much smaller amount. NCAA free agents are hot commodities. Alex Kerfoot and Will Butcher last year. For example.
So looking at a stack of 2nd round and 3rd round picks for Vegas doesn't really mean anything. Most of those players in that round will never make it to an NHL roaster.
There are great statistics on this out there. The odds of a 1st round pick turning into a career player is 63%. Mind you that number changes drastically if you remove say the top 4-5 players of every years draft. Those are player most likely to make a team, and takes out like a huge chuck out of the players who turn into career players.
Only about 25% of 2nd round picks turn into a career player, 3rd round picks is about 12%.
I think they judge a career player by 500 games.
So looking at those picks, odds of getting anything out of those 3rd round picks is slim to none, and those second round picks you will be lucky to get 1 good player out of them.
Furthermore, looking at prospects as untradable is nonsense. Unless you can really see them on the AHL level and see what you have, or they are a top 5 pick.
The penguins traded a goalie prospect everyone raves about last year for Brassard. The reason why was clear. Brass was a known NHL quantity who was a good player, the goalie, odds are a crap shoot.

There are not enough words to express how much I appreciate your comment. It must have taken serious time to type all that out. I see what you’ve written and I’ve changed my view on prospects and draft picks. To a certain extent, Glass and Suzuki being our first ever draft picks makes them a lot more valuable in my mind than they really are for that exact reason. Yes, while Glass and Suzuki could one day become franchise players it certainly is a crap-shoot whether they fulfill that potential. I still believe that Tuch and Theodore should be untouchable still since they showed an ability to compete very well in the NHL last season and showed a lot of reason to believe they would only improve this season as well. Thanks for your feedback!