This doesn't really apply to only Marner, but all RFAs on teams who will be going up against the cap (Point with TB, etc.) I think it's been made pretty clear that any offersheet that doesn't get a return of 4 1st rd picks, automatically gets matched when it comes to Marner, as Dubas has made his current cap situation being able to manage a $10.5mil cap hit for Marner this season, and that any OS Marner would probably sign would just be a pressure point to force the Leafs to match, not because he actually wants to leave.
But let's just say no deal has been signed and the season has started. Any deal signed at that point would have a greater cap hit for the 1st year. The longer into the season it takes, the bigger the cap hit (see Nylander situation last season as an example). If there is a hold out for, lets say for about 30 days until the beginning of November, a hypothetical OS from CBJ is signed by Marner at $10.5mil aav for 5 years, just under the 4 1st's threshold, so the compensation would only be 2 1st's, a 2nd, and a 3rd. Due to the contract being signed 30 days into the season, and following the algorithm provided on CapFriendly for RFAs signed after the season has started, and using the model that the season is 180days long, Marners cap hit for the first year would be $12.6mil, with the following 4 seasons at a $10.15 cap hit.
This situation would put the Leafs having to swallow a $12.6mil cap hit *in year 1*, but only getting the 2nd highest bracket of RFA compensation. Would they be able to manage?
If my math is wrong, please fell free to let me know.
Removing OS from the equation. You can apply this kind of contract to Leafs signing Marner themselves after the season has started. The outlook isn't good with regards to the cap hit. Better sign him before the season starts!!!!
McDavid, Connor
250 000 $)
Blazingbat11 a aimé ceci.
CapFriendly
CapFriendly