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Jamiepo

get off my lawn...
Membre depuis
4 jui 2018
Équipe préférée
Maple Leafs de Toronto
Deuxième équipe préférée
Flames de Calgary
Anniversaire
26 fév 1980
Localisation
Calgary AB.
Messages dans les forums
16705
Messages par jour
17,92
Sujets de discussion
245
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 15 heures
Sujet: Building A More Competitive Leafs team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>Couple of things here. First, Holl has only been in the league one year (not counting the three games or whatever this year) and that was widely considered Freddie Andersen's worst year in the league, so I would say Holl put up those results in spite of Andersen, not because of him.

Second, the charts that you are putting here are for even strength. I'll come back to the PK, but in my opinion this actually shows that Holl is the more consistent player due to how much his expected goals for/expected goals against line up with his actual goals for and goals against. The xGF is a decent predictor of the "mean" that these players will regress to, whether that be a good or bad regression, while the GF is descriptive of what they actually did in 19-20. What I see is that Holl performed a little worse offensively than he should have, while Bortuzzo way overperformed offensively last year.

But, RAPM charts really only tell us so much about defense, and they're not optimized for 4-on-5. So for the PK, I think their player cards are a little more indicative of how they performed short handed. I've never been able to figure out how to get an image into capfriendly, but <a href="https://imgur.com/a/V4ppI5X" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">here's</a> a public link to them. As we can see in the SH Defense column, Bortuzzo's value is mainly in his ability to drive offense, rather than his stingy defense. In fact, he's been below replacement short handed for the past three years (and I would say this is mostly because of his much-beloved willingness to block shots, which analytics would tell us can oftentimes do more harm than good). We only have a one year sample on Holl, so maybe I'm jumping the gun a bit, but he's had better results on a worse defensive team that had worse goaltending last year.

As for our PK being bad without Bortuzzo- maybe. We did let a power play goal in when he was in the lineup the first game too. But even if you don't believe in Holl's ability to step up there, we have guys that should be able to handle those minutes. Faulk has posted some very impressive PK numbers, we've got Mikkola- who has been a PK specialist basically his entire career- waiting for opportunity as well. In fact, the only regular defenseman who has posted worse numbers than Bortuzzo over the last three years is Scandella. In my opinion, Bortuzzo very much shouldn't be an everyday player, trade or no trade.

I do think Blais should be a more regular PK'er and I do like the sort of "intangibles" that Barbashev and Bortuzzo bring to the table which would make me unwilling to trade them, but these are two players that give us very clear upgrades. It's very similar to the Reaves trade in my opinion, where you don't get the "sexy" players necessarily but you get the better players.</div></div>

Are these charts adjusted for for competition? They don’t seem to be. Holl was facing top lines.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 15 heures
Sujet: Building A More Competitive Leafs team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeastModeUnknown</b></div><div>You know I really like your opinion, and you are one of the better known Toronto fans and at least a trusted one in my eyes, but I still think Bortuzzo is more consistent on the defensive end, and the RAPM is backing up what I'm saying, but Mikheyev yes he's better than Barbashev that's a given, but Mikheyev is offensive, he would be more redundant on the Blues because he would be a 3rd line type player who's going to get paid, and get a Top 6 spot soon, which Blues do not have so not sure if the Blues really want to make that type of deal.</div></div>

Bortuzzo has certainly had more experience. So far this year Holl is our best Dman. Better than Brodie Reilly and Muzzin. I certainly don’t expect him to keep up his pace in points but he has been a defensive beast. Blocking shots using his body and contributing in all 3 zones.

I was high on him last season because of what I saw him doing even if he didn’t get the results. I would have never expected that he would have came in so complete this year. He is confident and playing with swagger.

Mid way though the season when everyone catches on you will see his value go flying up. To the leafs he is going to be worth protection in the expansion.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 16 heures
Sujet: What I dont want the Habs to do
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>IMO this is about the only type of PLD trade that makes sense. Although I hate the idea of losing Caufield, this is a case where both teams win. Danault keeps the Jackets competitive now and he gets to remain a top 6 center. Caufield gives them a very good prospect to pick up some of the scoring slack at the end of this season or next year. Poehling gives them a possible 3C or 4C option and Byron can play up and down the lineup.</div></div>

That was pretty much my thought. I will be honest I’m not high on caufield, not at the nhl level anyway. I think his perceived value is very high and this is the type of move that would make sense to cash in on him. If I’m wrong about caufield... you still got pld lol.