Quoting: Sean4417
Arizona would definately be interested in a middle 6 forward that has a 3.5 cap hit but only 750k in actual dollars. Education is good before commenting
I don't think Arizona has any interest in trading futures for a rental.
I think your valuation is "right" in a vacuum. I'm a fan of Kerfoot. I also think he'll end up returning quite a bit less.
You've got about a dozen contenders and pretenders above the cap right now. The teams that can use Kerfoot and "value" him, don't have the cap space. The teams that have space are generally not in the market to trade futures or can spend that $3.5M better (example: Toronto, trying to move him out to make room to sign Sandin and flexibility). There are only 11 teams in the league that have enough cap space to absorb Kerfoot's contract without sending money back, and they all know Toronto wants/needs to move Kerfoot.
Somebody is going to get a pretty good player for cheap. Kerfoot and the Leafs aren't the only one in this boat. The teams with space just need to sit patiently. The pressure is all on teams over or at the cap.
In the case of Arizona specifically, they don't want to be better this year. They could go 0-82 and not much care. Kerfoot is only worth to Arizona what they could flip him for, and the market is obviously not great. They already have guys to flip that need retention, and they only have two retention slots left. So why trade a second and fourth and waste a roster/contract spot on Kerfoot, when someone else is eventually going to pay them futures (which is the only thing they really want to add) to take bad contracts?