Miller to DC rumors (and ACGMS) are picking up, and for good reason as the caps have money to spend and a gaping hole at 2c with backstrom out. Here are some comps of recent big trades for top 6 forwards. While some of them were at the deadline, only Duchene's stint in CBJ ended up being a pure rental.
Mark Stone returned OTT (at the time) top prospect Erik Brannstrom, cap filler Oskar Lindberg, and pick #61
Max Pacioretty returned top prospect Nick Suzuki, cap filler / mediocre roster player Tomas Tatar, and pick #50
Matt Duchene returned the Avs a first round pick (that was widely expected to be mid/late, not #3), a second, a third, and at the time B level prospect Samuel Girard
Matt Duchene then returned the Sens a top 3 protected first, and a first conditional on Duchene resigning with CBJ
Jack Eichel returned top prospect Peyton Krebs, salary filler / good roster player Alex Tuch, pick #16, and a second
Pavel Buchnevich returned pick #55 and salary filler / bad roster player Sammy Blais
ROR returned (at the time) top prospect Tage Thompson, salary fillers Patrik Berglund and Vladimir Sobotka, and picks #31 and #49
Sam Reinhart recieved B prospect Devon Levi and pick #28
The only players that returned a first AND a top prospect (at the time they were traded) were Eichel and ROR, both of whom were better players when moved than Miller is now. That said, he is a better player than Pacioretty, Duchene, Buch, and Reinhart when they were all moved.
This lands Miller at somewhere more than a first but somewhere less than first + top prospect ++. In this one I went for picks #20 and #46, a B prospect in Iorio, a mediocre salary filler in Eller, and a future second. Swap Lapierre with the first, Iorio with another second, Alexeyev, or Protas, and Eller with Hagelin or any combinations of those if you want.
Miller isn't coming off neck surgery like Eichel and put up 38 points more than ROR when ROR was traded so I think saying Eichel and ROR were better players when traded then Miller is not really true tbh
Miller isn't coming off neck surgery like Eichel and put up 38 points more than ROR when ROR was traded so I think saying Eichel and ROR were better players when traded then Miller is not really true tbh
ROR was also 3 years younger at the time than miller is now and is a much much better defensive player. Eichel is a really weird case to judge. I guess better wasn't the right term but I don't think saying they held more trade value is a stretch
ROR was also 3 years younger at the time than miller is now and is a much much better defensive player. Eichel is a really weird case to judge. I guess better wasn't the right term but I don't think saying they held more trade value is a stretch
I’d think that putting up 99 points is more valued than somebody who is defensively responsible. Miller is coming off an amazing year. I think the Canucks would want McMichael/Lapierre, Iorio, a first and a second if there is retention. Without retention you can drop the second round pick
I’d think that putting up 99 points is more valued than somebody who is defensively responsible. Miller is coming off an amazing year. I think the Canucks would want McMichael/Lapierre, Iorio, a first and a second if there is retention. Without retention you can drop the second round pick
If I could guarantee that Miller would put up 99 points again next season (even with half of his assists on the pp) I would do the Lapierre/first/iorio trade in a heartbeat. There is no guarantee of that however.
The point of this ACGM though is that the difference in returns from ok to good players to great players is never as much as it should be. There are very very very few guys who ever get moved for more than a first, let alone more than a first + top prospect. I don't think Miller quite reaches that tier
I rather have very good young players that mutplie draft picks that will be 20ovr and above. understand that 2023 is a good draft but always a safer route to trade for a player you know for sure
Miller at the worst gets a return directly comparible to what eichel got and since Washington doesn’t have guys comparible to tuch to trade away they have to add more pieces. It takes mcmichael/lapierre, iorio, both this years and next years 1sts for miller 50% retained and we’ll take back hagelins contract
Wow, a non-insane trade suggestion for Miller. But unfortunatley for the Caps, Vancouver fans have a serious addiction to wanting Marino from Pittsburgh. They need their fix. Give "us" Marino, please, please, please.
Miller at the worst gets a return directly comparible to what eichel got and since Washington doesn’t have guys comparible to tuch to trade away they have to add more pieces. It takes mcmichael/lapierre, iorio, both this years and next years 1sts for miller 50% retained and we’ll take back hagelins contract
Since 2016, the only two players who were traded for multiple first round picks without a first round pick also going back the other way were Brandon Hagel this year and Brayden Schenn in 2017. Hagel was 23 and signed for 1.5 million for two more years going to a team which literally could not fit anyone more expensive under the cap. Brayden Schenn was 25 and signed for 3 more years at 5.125 million. Miller will not return two first round picks, a top prospect, and a b prospect.
Since 2016, the only two players who were traded for multiple first round picks without a first round pick also going back the other way were Brandon Hagel this year and Brayden Schenn in 2017. Hagel was 23 and signed for 1.5 million for two more years going to a team which literally could not fit anyone more expensive under the cap. Brayden Schenn was 25 and signed for 3 more years at 5.125 million. Miller will not return two first round picks, a top prospect, and a b prospect.
I think you have to factor in that with the amount of contenting teams like Colorado losing Kadri and having to resign Mack, and all these other teams that are so tight with the cap, getting a 99 points player for 2.8m or whatever it is, is insane. It is a bidding war, so whatever your calculation is, is probably the minimum and it will only go higher with other teams bidding right. You brought up the ROR and Eichel deals, if we say Miller is even worth 1 first less than either, which he isn't due to Eichel condition, but either way, both of their contract were way higher if you including retention both were 3x time the cap hit.
I think you have to factor in that with the amount of contenting teams like Colorado losing Kadri and having to resign Mack, and all these other teams that are so tight with the cap, getting a 99 points player for 2.8m or whatever it is, is insane. It is a bidding war, so whatever your calculation is, is probably the minimum and it will only go higher with other teams bidding right. You brought up the ROR and Eichel deals, if we say Miller is even worth 1 first less than either, which he isn't due to Eichel condition, but either way, both of their contract were way higher if you including retention both were 3x time the cap hit.
Caps don't need retention and I assume any team that trades for him is going to have to immediately extend him to at least 8x7. My point is that looking at comparable trades for other star forwards (and defenseman to be honest), VAN fans are probably going to be somewhat disappointed in the return. As a general rule of thumb, mediocre to good players are overvalued by the league and good to great players are undervalued. Even if Miller was twice as good as Reinhart for example, which he is not, don't expect literally twice the return. Getting that second first rounder or prospect is much more difficult than the first.
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