Projecting solid growth from current prospects to determine where our needs may lie as our theoretical cup window opens. This identifies our core as Werenski/Gavrikov/Boqvist with Laine/Sillinger/Johnson as the forwards to build around. (Bjorkstrand being more flexible but still an important piece).
Nyquist and Voracek will likely be packaged and traded at deadlines unless they prove to be significantly more valuable in getting Johnson/Sillinger/Marchenko playoff experience. Some of these players are sure to no longer be here as Jarmo has expressed his interest in making player for player trades as early as the 22 draft. This roster suggests, at the very least, that we don't have room for Bemstrom or Bean (or Boqvist if you wan't to make that exchange) and packing them for an upgrade would leave clean room for some current roster prospects to play into higher roles.
Given the roster at hand there are a few positions that CBJ can target for obvious upgrades. It's hard to see this team winning a stanley cup or contending by this year as it's hard to project either Cole Sillinger or Kent Johnson being tops of the league (Point/Stamkos, Crosby/Malkin, Backstrom/Kuznetsov) but I think projecting them to O'Reilly/Schenn on their post-bridge contracts is within the realm of possibility (Laine here being the Kucherov/Ovechkin/Tarasenko/Kane elite winger). Here, I used Sam Reinhart and Anthony Cirelli as comparables for Kent Johnson and Cole Sillinger's respective bridge contracts.
In order to be Stanley Cup contenders, the D corps is going to have to carry a lot of weight and a lot of that will fall on Zach Werenski living up to his contract and being able to carry a pairing a la Hedman or Josi. Boqvist and Gavrikov should be able to provide top pairing value but CBJ still need another defenseman that can play one of two roles. If Boqvist can pair with Werenski or serve as a 3rd pairing offense driver, this RD could form a matchup line with Gavrikov (a la McDonagh/Cernak). Ceulemans can certainly project into this position, but its too early to tell. In this scenario CBJ would use Boqvist like Sergachev and expect him to provide offense from the 3rd pairing while shifting up with Werenski when behind. If Ceulemans or another defenseman are capable of being very dynamic (while taking hard matchups) with Werenski then Boqvist can play comfortably with Gavrikov and form a good, versatile 2nd pair.
Jack Roslovic has been growing and has been a dynamic transition player and is a good complement to Laine who is a pure finisher in the O zone. He isn't quite good enough at connecting plays or extending zone time but Cole Sillinger could develop into the pivot that can help with both. If instead Kent Johnson is paired with Laine then CBJ will need a strong transition player to put opposite of Laine (or their 2nd line) assuming Cole Sillinger slots in the middle of a 5v5 play driving 2nd line. It remains to be seen whether Chinakov can put it together, but it's possible that either he or Marchenko can develop into players who drive zone entries and 5v5 offense. Kent Johnson fits well here in that he can distribute to either side but if Sillinger slots in here Bjorkstrand could move up and form a matchup possession 2nd line. In either case Texier and Jenner will profile as players that can take on a matchup role and work along the boards, if Bjorkstrand is forced into the 3rd line they could be adept at controlling the neutral zone as well. Kuraly helps establish a relentless forecheck line whose only objective is to get O zone faceoffs for better lines. Foudy could play well here if he can establish a foothold and continue his defensive growth. Voronkov's skating doesn't quite match but he should be able to bring a physical presence that is valued in the playoffs.
This team projects as a deep but ultimately low ceiling team that could use a player or two who are the full package unless a high percentage of prospects hit ceilings. Development from young players could change this, but it is a team who is predicated on individual talent that doesn't always work in concert to enhance their linemates (Laine, Roslovic, Bjorkstrand, Marchenko, Chinakov, Texier). A dynamic in transition and playmaking C/RW would round out our needs for the Top 6 in the most optimistic development case. Complementing our shooters in Laine/Sillinger/Chinakov/Bjorkstrand and Marchenko and our O zone dominant players who struggle with skating against top matchups in Laine/Sillinger/Johnson. It wouldn't hurt to have a strong and flexible forward for our middle six in case Texier, Chinakov or Marchenko don't pan out. A defensively responsible playmaker can help unlock Chinakov or form an excellent and potentially high level matchup line with Bjorkstrand and Sillinger, or even furthermore shore up the deficiencies of Roslovic and Laine on the same line. Our D corps needs a couple of pieces but has the depth of assets to be tweaked into the right shape at the right time. Here, an aggressive rush stopping and zone-exiting defenseman who can free Werenski or form a shutdown pair with Gavrikov looks the best. A different defenceman who can provide strong offense from the 3rd pair is another option but requires the most growth of(or departure from) Boqvist.
Jarmo has talked already about he need for more size to protect the young players but it is unclear if that is a need long term as we have bigger bodies coming to play and the youth will likely grow in confidence and stature over the course of the next two years. If not, Debrusk/Greenway/Luke Schenn look like the best size that can play and fit in our team concept. Whereas weaponizing cap space to get some goonery like Milan Lucic or Zack Kassian could be a savvy move as the team grows.
Here we have around $2 million in cap with optimistic projections for Sillinger/Johnson/Marchenko and some extra defenseman with Kuraly falling off in 1 year and Jenner/Bjorkstrand in 2, giving around $12 million for the next contracts provided the salary cap hasn't largely changed by then (please).
There still is a large degree of risk with the projections of forwards Chinakov/Marchenko/Texier and defenseman Boqvist/Blankenburg/Ceulemans so moving one or two of these players (Bean/Voracek/Nyquist/Bemstrom/Roslovic/Robinson being pieces available in packages as well) for some insurance or more certain projections could be a wise move. Cirelli, Karlsson and Erikson-Ek would be immediate fits on ice (and in room) that allow Sillinger and Johnson time to develop and can theoretically fit the salary cap structure (though at varying acquisition prices). Necas is a young playmaker who could complement Laine as well but still with a large degree of risk. JT Miller could fit but would certainly accelerate the timeline, make the salary cap hard and probably require moving Voracek early. Marner/Forsberg/Kyrou/Meier/Ehlers, are the highest end players to fill the top end but likely out of reach for the same reason (they would require moving multiple core pieces or high draft picks). Chychrun or Sergachev are strong targets for more certain D projections as well, though they would likely come at the cost of Boqvist and/or other prime assets. Dumba/Petry would be great Werenski partners and insurance, if they are available at the right price, and their cap hits should fall off before it becomes difficult with other players. The most important part for Jarmo and this group are making changes while maintaining leadership and lockerroom excellence.
In terms of the 2022 draft, Savoie/Nazar/Lambert and Gauthier/Geekie/Yurov profile as forwards available with our picks who could fill those roles. Jiricek and Mateychuk (Mintyukov as well) profile as defenseman who fill different but still projectable roles for 24/25 or after and could be available at CBJ picks.
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