And brought in Lou ???

Panarin wouldn't cost draft picks would he. Putting Barzal on a line with marner and he puts up even 90 what do you think he will demand? You are also banking on teams helping you out of a situation that now has inflated every top RFA by 25% in salary how many teams are going help you and not want top prospects, core players or a 1st you now don't have. Also, i have been saying since last offseason that marners value is round 9.5 seeing he would have only one 90+ season so take him and watch the side effects of inflating his contract. Before you say MTL sheeted Aho he was offersheeted at market value hense why teams had no issue.

My point is that Lou wouldn’t have offered Panarin 12.5 if he didn’t think he could sign BARZAL

And how many GM's bank on every other player signing at market value and get screwed. It happened to EDM when they did it to Penner, it happened to PHI when they sheeted Weber, it even happened to TOR even though Matthews is around market value based off pts/game. Lou offered Panarin that salary cause he was a UFA and wouldn't cost him picks and seeing he was a UFA would have no impact to Barzal. Marners contract would even if he puts up 80 pts his salary demand will be round 10.5 based off marner offer. If Lou does this he is banking of Dubas matching the offersheet and messing up the leafs. No team truly thinks Marner is worth 12.5 and is only doing it so the leafs need to dump core players at a discount.