Top 4 D remain and if burns, Vlasic, and Karlsson dont slow down and Ryan establishes himself in the league, then the bottom pairing need not be highly experienced as they can be limited to 10-12 mins per game. Whichever Dmen emerge as the best from the Cuda win the job next year. Maybe Merkley, Ferraro, middleton, roy, simek, wood, or DeSimone. Or some cheap vet.
The top 3 lines are strong. Nyqist is a perfect target for dougie. His production will make him easier to acquire in comparison to a duchene, Skinner, etc. and easier to extend reasonably. Assuming a big target like stone or panarin is not out there, Nyquist is the best bargain I see. I figure the wings may not even get a 1st for him (40 point players are not expensive to acquire).
He has been in the top 5 in scoring every year for DET. His actual totals are comparably low because he has no D to play with (last year Braun would have been T-1st in D scoring on the wings), and minimal other forward talent. Still, he ranks consistently among the best forwards in +/- as well, so he knows the two-way game. He's only 29, so he's not old yet.
I bet Nyquist, on the sharks, playing with Burns and Karlsson on the ice most of the time rockets into the 50-60 point range. And he can likely be kept long term for 5M or less (40 pt players don't get 6M-7M+). He'll be a bargain going forward too.
Personally, this is a team that should be good for a long time, does not overly rely on the farm, but consistently give 2-3 guys a shot to ensure a smooth turnover. Perhaps chartier, letunov, praplan, Halb, or some others emerge effectively this year, then they would have a chance to make the lineup going forward. I like that idea, and the same on the D.
On that team, among forwards, only pavelski is an age problem, but his leadership off the ice along is well worth resigning him. On the D, the age is clearly an issue with burns and vlasic, but I doubt we will see a huge dropoff just yet. maybe 20-22 mins for pickles (instead of closer to 24), and maybe 22-24 for burns (instead of 25+). Still, karlsson will be good for 25-30, and Ryan for 20. Leaves little for the 3rd pair.
Goaltending is still headlined by Jones, though Bibeau was an AHL all star and looks ready to get a back up look.
This is a sustainable long term team that should be just as competitive next year and for many year to come as this year.
As a bonus, they get back a few 2nd rounders for future rentals or target who may come available.
The key will be cutting the Karlsson-Dillon-Braun 9M in 4th line/3rd pairing money, and reallocating to top Dmen (like Karlsson) and top 6/9 forwards (like resigning the RFA's and adding Nyquist).
If Dougie can lock up Karlsson long term, then the future is very bright and works.
Lastly, If the sharks succeed this year, and karlsson stays, it will be easy for dougie to go into the Europe and college and snatch the top free agents there to continue to restock the farm and fill out the roster with talent. He did it with M Karlsson, Donskoi, Sorenson, Heed, Dell, and now Suomela , Praplan, Radil, Simek, etc.
Dougie is a master of snatching good FA talent, so I figure there will be another next year that I can't even write in...
Not sold on Nyquist being a good target for that extension. You're throwing away D depth for a 3rd liner. Braun and Dillion are probably two of the more underrated D men in the league. Ryan is not a top pairing guy. You'll be relying on 3 D men to carry the load. It doesn't work like that.
Zero chance that Nyquist signs that low, Reportedly Nyquist wants 5 x 5.5M and talk is that Karlsson wants to go back to the east. And there's already speculation that Karlsson wants as much as McDavid if not more.
If Karlsson does not sign in SJ, then all of this is moot. At that point, the sharks will have lots of space going forward and will need all their D. Clearly, this is contingent on karlsson.
I strongly expect karlsson will stay long term. Other than Soupy, players who have come by trade choose to stay (Jones, Burns, Jumbo, Kane, etc.) This is a great environment, great weather, great fans, great locker room, and a chance to win the cup every year.
As for Nyquist, you gotta take risks. Obviously a guy like Panarin would be great, but the much of the success off the Knights was in finding underutilized diamonds in the rough like Haula, who was stuck on the Minny 3rd line, but averaging 30 pts at EV the two years prior in minimal ice time. Suddenly, he gets a top 6 opportunity in vegas, and boom, he's a 30 goal scorer (well, 29.) nate Schmidt put up 17 pts, +22 in just 15 mins of ice for Washington. He goes to the knights, gets top 4 minutes with some PP time, and just like that, he's a bona fide stud leading the team in TOI in the PO's and putting up big numbers.
Acquiring established stars is both hard and expensive. The key is to find the underutilized, under recognized assets that could be stars in the right space. Then acquire them for cheap and go from there.
Nyquist is a 40-45 pt player. Hard to see him greatly exceeding 5M per. And hard to see much more than the equivalent of a 1st to acquire him.
If Karlsson resigns then one (or both) of braun and Dillon must go as well as Melker. And of course, if they make the deal near the deadline for nyquist, then they can see how he fits before making the longer term call...
Not sold on Nyquist being a good target for that extension. You're throwing away D depth for a 3rd liner. Braun and Dillion are probably two of the more underrated D men in the league. Ryan is not a top pairing guy. You'll be relying on 3 D men to carry the load. It doesn't work like that.
Why is Ryan not a top 4? he has looked very good at both ends to me thus far. Cant quite pencil him in just yet, but we will know by Dec/Jan. he and Burns have made a great little pairing since last year, and I think it works well for both. Ryan put him big points in the A while being strong defensively. No reason he cant play 20+ mins/game...
Dillon and Braun are both solid defenders who can play 18-20 mins on any team. Problem is that there arent the minutes to go around if karlsson is there.
Total of 120 mins for Dmen in a game:
Karlsson 25 (or more)
Burns 25 (or more)
Vlasic 23
Ryan 17
That leaves a total of 30 minutes combined for dillon and braun, and thats assuming karlsson and burns only play 25 and Ryan only 17. if K+D play 26, and Ryan plays 19, that's only 26 mins combined for Dillon/Braun.
Have 7M in two players who are play under 15 mins/night is not good cap management. That's why one (or both) would need to go if Karlsson stays. Also, the sharks have some guys coming up who will likely need a look including Merkley, Ferraro, and even possibly Cimek, Heed, and an outside chance of Wood, Roy, Middle, or Gregoire.
The sharks are aging, especially on D, so they need to transition into a younger team while keeping pickles and Burns as the anchors (and karlsson too). Braun is clearly going to have to be moved or he'll leave for nothing. Dillon is not old, but his $$$ arent great value. They need to introduce some younger players, in sheltered bottom pairing (12 mins/gm) roles. They do this brilliantly with forwards like Hertl, Labanc, Meier who all started with depth roles and moved up. Even Donkey and some of the older newbies were not counted on to score early on and got time to ease into the league alongside established guys. They are doing that well now with Ryan, and will need to continue to do that over the next 2 years as minutes for burns and vlasic begin to decline.
McDavid, Connor
250 000 $)
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