I think there are a lot of issues with how this team is being deployed right now, and despite Woodcroft generally being a good coach, I'm not sure why he is making these decisions.
Defensive deployment issues:
The first major mistake is overplaying the Nurse-Ceci pairing, specifically overplaying Nurse. Nurse is not an elite dman, and should not be deployed as one. The Oilers actually have decent defensive depth, with the Broberg-Bouchard pairing being a bright spot recently. Woodcroft needs to stop being so reliant on the Nurse-Ceci pairing and deploying them as an elite top pair, which they are not.
A solution to this is 1. simply play them less and play the Broberg-Bouchard pairing more (maybe running 7D more often), or 2. spread the defensive talent across all three pairs even more, and roll all three pairs fairly equally (Similar to what Tampa did with Hedman, Sergachev, and McDonagh on three seperate lines paired with weaker linemates). My ideal lines are below (those have also been the most optimal lines based on xGoals%)
Nurse-Bouchard and Kulak-Ceci have historically been very good combinations, if Woodcroft is worried about not giving Barrie enough ice time, play Broberg more too, he's been good, plus Barrie gets PP time.
Forward deployment issues:
Forward combinations are more complicated. Kane's injury has definitely made it harder to find lines that work. I think for now the best line combinations are:
There's no reason why Nuge-McDavid-Hyman shouldn't be the first line. Hyman is the perfect supporting winger for McDavid, and he has very good chemistry with Nuge too. Nuge has also shown that he plays significantly better when he plays with better linemates, not when he's thrown on the third line with two fourth liners (why do coaches keep doing that). This line has been good when together this season.
The second line is not as simple with Kane out (and partly because Draisiatl hasn't been as amazing as he normally is this year). Yamamoto has generally been a pretty good winger for Drai, and I think he and Holloway's speed could be deadly along Drai. I have no idea why Holloway isn't getting more chances higher up in the lineup, he's looked really good. When Kane get back he probably replaces him, but Holloway should not be on the fourth right now, especially when Janmark, Kostin, and Foegele have all got looks in a top 6 LW spot recently.
The third line has been pretty good in the past, and Foegele and Mcleod have pretty good chemistry. I also think Puljujarvi could be very good with Mcleod if they played together more. The fourth is kind of just the left over pieces, but Kostin and Janmark have been ok when together. I could also see someone double shifting with those two and running 7D, or have Ryan out mainly for PK.
I think Woodcroft needs to build the lines based on chemistry, and not switch them up every 2 seconds based on individual performance, sacrificing the lines building chemistry.
McDavid, Connor
250 000 $)
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