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Big John T
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Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 mars 2019 à 17 h 25
Sujet:
Leafs signed Joseph Duszak
still waiting on him signing with the Leafs. If there has been a delay there must be another offer, but that just means other GMs think highly of him and in the end there's no better opportunity for him than with the Leafs.
recent NHL signings (NCAA in bold):
<strong>2019-03-12 Max Veronneau (F) Princeton Univ. Ottawa Senators </strong>
2019-03-12 Philipp Kurashev (F) Québec Remparts Chicago Blackhawks
<strong>2019-03-11 Jake Lucchini (F) Michigan Tech Pittsburgh Penguins </strong>
<strong>2019-03-11 Quinn Hughes (D) Univ. of Michigan Vancouver Canucks </strong>
2019-03-09 Justin Almeida (F) Moose Jaw Warriors Pittsburgh Penguins
<strong>2019-03-09 Adam Huska (G) Univ. of Connecticut New York Rangers </strong>
Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 mars 2019 à 12 h 53
Sujet:
Attempt
"I want Dougie Hamilton, but I won't bother even to make a possible offer and just include Kadri. I clearly don't give a damn if Carolina is interested"
Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 mars 2019 à 12 h 51
Sujet:
Would this happen
Just post what you actually believe, stop performing to try and convince others.
Rielly said a naughty word, it blew up in public, and the NHL is suspending him for a game.
As for the roster-post, I would like to see Sandin and for him to get a taste. I don't know if there are any downsides
Forum:
NHL Trades
12 mars 2019 à 12 h 40
Sujet:
(VAN/PIT) - Gudbranson for Pearson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kaljakori</b></div><div>Bad dman for a meh, but overpaid, mid-6 forward. What is GMJR doing?</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>toque</b></div><div>Can't believe any team would be in on Gusbranson with that contract. Him and Jack Johnson as a pairing..</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ProfessorFuzzymuffins</b></div><div>I am now convinced that Jim Rutherford lost his mind after winning consecutive Stanley Cups.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CFMan</b></div><div>Gudbranson is Badbranson. Vancouver Wins, Pearson is a good 3rd liner.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MountRoyal514</b></div><div>Gudbranson was a perfect d-man for a different era : really big and really mean. Those attributes are far less useful now, he hasn't surpassed 15 points in a season. But Pitts has injuries and I guess that forced their hand. And the per-season cost is pretty much the same.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jasondomitrovic</b></div><div>I think Pittsburgh wins because Tanner was doing nothing for us. Gudbranson could improve greatly with the influence of Gonchar because the skills that Serg has Gudbranson needs. This is the key element and Pittsburgh had to add a D man.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rangersandislesfan</b></div><div>I think Vancouver wins the trade. Pittsburgh adds defence to help them out but I don't see it as a fair deal. I see Pearson having more value than Gudbranson.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>They needed someone to keep teams honest. They got a guy who went toe to toe with wilson who tried to jump him and won.
People aren't looking at this trade right. The penguins won this trade. He'll help clean up some of the thuggery. They unloaded pearson which had to happen. I hope they bring in Angelo for the forward spot now.
Too worried about his defensive stats. He'll be fine. He has a lot more talent around him now.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PrisonBull</b></div><div>I can't believe the Canucks got an NHL playerer in return for Guddy. He has the worst +/- in the league. Much like the Spooner/Gagner trade, the contract is a wash with the Canucks saving $250K in cap space. Big win for GMJB.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>punchmaster11</b></div><div>What in the name of Mike Lange is GMJR doing?!</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>oilersfan089</b></div><div>Wow, another weird one. I guess Pitts really need a dman to fill some holes caused by injuries, but Gudbranson? I'm sure they could have traded Pearson to Edmonton for Russel, who is at least more useful and doesn't take as many penalties as Gudbranson (*_* )/`83pms`\( *_*) and a glorious -27 (but who really cares about +/- in our advanced stats age "\(~.~)/"). Don't even ask about his advanced stats. Vancouver gets another overpaid bottom 6 "vet", which I'm sure they're fine with. Speed on the back end (skating and puck movement), a youthful top 6 that is offensively potent, and a bottom 6 full of overpaid "vets" that will probably throw everything at a playoff run when it comes. But an aging roster in Pittsburgh isn't winning anytime soon utilizing Pearson in a bottom 6 role; they have enough players that can slot in there right now. I'm guessing they look at how the Islanders have been winning and realize they need more grit, strength, and size on their back end, simply to get out there against the Isles big 4th line (Martin, Clutterbuck, Cizikas); that is a mean line that isn't well contained in the East style of play.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Missouri</b></div><div>OH! Penguins :shakehead Horrible deal. He is a large defenseman but still. You had to trade forward help for him!</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>awesome</b></div><div>Should have got Vancouver to retain a bit, Gudbranson is not worth 4mil a year from the looks of it, it is nice to have somebody to beat the other teams goons up but 4mil is a lot for an enforcer that Sullivan may or may not play(I.E Reaves)</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BoltsPoint21</b></div><div>If you think Pittsburgh in anyway won the trade... I have no idea what to say.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Erik Gudbranson (to Penguins, ahahaha) is a terrible, truly, truly terrible defender. Just, like, so bad. <a href="https://t.co/iy0AIesLxc">pic.twitter.com/iy0AIesLxc</a></p>— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) <a href="https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1100130596217647104?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 25, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gregb569</b></div><div>all wrong once again</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>thelastlongbow</b></div><div>Gudbranson is also an RHD while only being 27. I don't think this is as bad a trade as they're saying.</div></div>
The trade verdict at this point is:
58 - Vancouver wins
4 - Fair deal
4 - Pittsburgh wins
<a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/g/gudbrer01-advanced-5on5close.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Gudbranson possession stats for 5on5-close</a>: 59.2% CF, 58.3% FF
Gudbranson has led the entire Penguins in Corsi/Fenwick since the trade, without sheltered zone starts.
Crosby not getting punched is just a bonus
<a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/pearsta01-advanced-5on5close.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Pearson is scoring at 1.8 G/60, 85.9% CF, 56.1%. </a>
Both have played 6 games. It's early, but there is a good chance of this trade working out for both teams.
Let this be a lesson to all the negative nancies who pooh-pooh any potential trade. You can't win anything if you don't take action, and there's no trophy for the person who wishes the hardest to get the lopsided trade of their dreams. A dozen opinions on a forum weigh up to diddly squat in reality.
It's so comfortable to go after UFAs, but most of them end up being anchors. A GM with guts can get a better deal in the trade market.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
8 mars 2019 à 16 h 26
Sujet:
Sens need cap hits
Sens aren't buying out anyone
Russell isn't waiving his NMC, just like Lucic isn't. Edmonton will be forced to protect them both in the expansion draft
Edmonton should:
loan out McDavid and Draisatl to another league to save money
force all the players with NMCs to ask for mercy and a trade
collect another top draft pick to reinvigorate season ticket sales
I doubt any of that happens, Edmonton is stuck in the valley of pathetic hopelessness just like Minnesota
Forum:
NHL Signings
8 mars 2019 à 16 h 19
Sujet:
Vegas Golden Knights signed Mark Stone (8 Years / $9,500,000 AAV)
It will be really interesting to see how well Vegas does this year.
The expectations are so high, anything short of a repeat will feel like a failure after emptying their cupboards to win now, and Seattle is probably going to try the exact opposite. Hopefully Seattle just vacuums up all the bad contracts and doesn't go after a single star player in UFA.
You heard it here first. Zaitsev and a 1st to Seattle for them to leave the Leafs alone
Forum:
NHL Signings
8 mars 2019 à 16 h 14
Sujet:
Vegas Golden Knights signed Mark Stone (8 Years / $9,500,000 AAV)
This does not make signing Marner any easier
It was so smart for the Bruins to sign Pastrnak early before he had proven himself and before star salaries escalated as a percentage of the cap
Forum:
Armchair-GM
8 mars 2019 à 14 h 51
Sujet:
Kap for Severson Devils Fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Juice</b></div><div>If you're already moving Kapanen out in a trade for D...who else are you moving to free up $6m + in salary?</div></div>
It's either add nothing at all until Marleau is gone and the 4RFAs+3UFAs are extended the year after, or trade Nylander. I don't think Zaitsev will waive for a dump like Ottawa.
The biggest improvements in the next 2 seasons will be adding Liljegren and Sandin to the roster. Then we will do absolutely everything to try and win with Matthews.
Might as well cash in Nylander's value today, and invest it into players who will be on their ELC during the Matthews' 3 year cup window and have salary cap available for the D we need.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
2 mars 2019 à 16 h 57
Sujet:
Oilers next season without trading good young tal
Sekera is back, Gagner is scoring more than Spooner, Oilers are healthy, McDavid is just off a 2 game vacation
The team is 4-4-2 in their last 10. Rearranging deck chairs on McDavid's back won't cut the mustard.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
2 mars 2019 à 16 h 51
Sujet:
Trade away garbage
Lucic takes a trade to Ottawa if you pay him $6 million per year off the books in addition to his salary, where the plan is to LTIR retire due to Hossa foot fungus so that he never actually has to step foot in Ottawa
Nobody with a NTC is saying yes to Ottawa. Too much aggravation, the only people who like it there are the ones robbing taxpayers
Forum:
Armchair-GM
2 mars 2019 à 16 h 44
Sujet:
A Great Team We have to Overpay to get what we want
You're stuck with Lucic barring a minor miracle where he wants to leave and join the very team that wants him at his full $6 million cap hit
4 more years, and then the Oilers can start fresh with a 27 year old McDavid hoping to win his first playoff game and start growing again
Optimistically:
$6 million with a cap increase of $3 million per year (the increases have been steady even though revenues have been lagging and the escrow clawbacks climbing)
2019: 6 / 82.5 = 7.27%
2020: 6/85.5 = 7.02%
2021: 6/88.5 = 6.78% *8 team trade list
2022-2023: 6/91.5 = 6.56% **10 team trade list
Those final 2 years will have the Oilers paying purely to dump his cap hit.
Any forward earning more than 5% of the cap must be playing in the top 6 and special teams to deserve it.
Lucic's decline will accelerate given his age + weight + the reffing is allowing a faster game.
Bide your time, encourage him to be a good teammate that looks out for the younger kids.
Bank a bunch of prospects. If you're lucky, Lucic will agree to a trade to a team willing to rent out their cap space for prospects.
If you're really lucky, you can LTIR him for life but there's no advantage doing that before the 2021 season as there are other bad contracts like Russell and there's no buildup of prospects waiting to rush in.
p.s.
This roster is at $88 million for next season. The Oilers are so screwed it would actually make sense to trade McDavid. Imagine if the Penguins were trying to now win their first cup with Crosby -- and he's got a 13 year contract that's not allowed today that softens his cap hit.
Toronto would have in the past entertained McDavid for Matthews straight up, and the Oilers could have flipped Matthews to Arizona for a truckload of picks and prospects.
McDavid may be worth his money but it's a short list of teams that have the cap room and flexibility with NTCs to take him on today.
I'd phone Joe Sakic in Colorado if they win the draft lottery with Ottawa's pick. Especially if there's a lockout coming, McDavid and Draisatl get paid no matter what, and the Oilers are already having trouble renewing seasons tickets with an expensive brand new stadium during an oil slump.
Jack Hughes + Tyson Jost + Nicolas Meloche + 3x COL 1st = 6 first round picks, 21 and under today = at least 4 NHLers hitting their prime when Lucic and Russell leave
That's just McDavid, you could dump Draisatl in NJ or NYI. Or you can hold on for 4 years and have a team that's not as good as if you had been bold
Forum:
Armchair-GM
25 févr. 2019 à 21 h 48
Sujet:
what the leafs could have done if they made another deal
Didn't you just give up Mikael Granlund for scraps?
Spurgeon is 29, Granlund 26. About the same contract.
The difference is Spurgeon probably vetoed any trade thanks to his 20 team no trade list this season
It's going to take a long time to turn the ship around, but MIN has started throwing overboard anything that's not nailed down so they can get younger cheaper players that will peak when Suter/Parise contracts don't take such a big % of the cap
This isn't the deal for Spurgeon, but even Montour got traded by Anaheim which is a good comparable in terms of a franchise
Forum:
Armchair-GM
25 févr. 2019 à 21 h 43
Sujet:
What Are Your Lines With All These Forwards
That right defence looks mighty weak across the NHL and prospect pool. Good luck drafting them when they're 5 LD to 1 RD in the upper end of draft rankings. Inquire about Zaitsev
Forum:
Armchair-GM
25 févr. 2019 à 21 h 40
Sujet:
Lets all ake a moment to realize our current cap situation
s'ok Winnipeg
Leafs will help you out by signing Trouba!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
25 févr. 2019 à 19 h 10
Sujet:
Brady Tkachuk for 2020 OTT 1st Jack Hughes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>You take hughes over Brady 100 times out of a 100. You take Kakko over Brady as well. They just have a higher ceiling. Tkachuk is a going to be a good one but he just doesnt have the franchise ceiling that the other guys are labeled with</div></div>
Even now, it's a 35% chance of Hughes/Kakko or 65% chance it's somebody worse than Tkachuk (for argument's sake), and the kicker is that Tkachuk being 1 year older is more useful to Colorado
I think there definitely was a point in time where Colorado would have done a reverse-trade at some point this season. If you wouldn't do it now, I think that just says timing is everything. This is one trade people will follow-up on years later to see how much closer, or farther apart the outcomes were
Forum:
Armchair-GM
25 févr. 2019 à 19 h 3
Sujet:
Cup or bust
Only 13/21 upcoming draft picks remaining
Better hope the playoffs are fun or there's no going back
Forum:
Armchair-GM
25 févr. 2019 à 18 h 38
Sujet:
Brady Tkachuk for 2020 OTT 1st Jack Hughes
for the record I thought Ottawa was stupid in keeping their 2018 4th overall pick at the time. It was obvious they would be worse the next year, and unable to hurry a rebuild
But it would have been interesting to see Ottawa get back their 1st round pick in a trade, before tanking and selling off all their best players. Obviously they didn't because it would have been too embarrassing, because COL is right at the edge of the playoffs and would love a lateral trade if it made them better now and because OTT doesn't care about being good until they move to a new rink
Forum:
Armchair-GM
25 févr. 2019 à 18 h 30
Sujet:
Brady Tkachuk for 2020 OTT 1st Jack Hughes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stan_Bowman</b></div><div></div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>This makes no sense</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JeffW</b></div><div>Even if this made sense, the avs say no</div></div>
With the benefit of hindsight, now that you've seen Brady Tkachuk in the NHL. Maybe you'd rather add him to the team, I don't know if there is a comparable type in this year's draft.
If there's no question the Avalanche would take Hughes, how do you feel about only an 18.5% chance of Hughes (50.6% outside the top 3) vs. 100% of Tkachuk
Forum:
Armchair-GM
25 févr. 2019 à 18 h 13
Sujet:
after the TDL
Dubas played it smart this TDL, and unless he takes proactive steps he probably won't raise the stakes to make a playoff push until 2020-2021 (Marleau is gone, Andersen in final year, Matthews is 23. btw Crosby age 20: finals, 21: won the cup, 22: won olympic gold, took a break and only won 4 playoff rounds over 6 seasons, age 28+29: won cups both years) If he let it ride this year, he'll likely do even less next year.
You get maybe 2-3 years as a contender, and then twice as long recovering.
Matthews is UFA in 2024-2025 so we only get one real chance at a push with him under this contract.
I'd bet on a big 3 year push to start for 2021-2022, once Seattle is in the league. It adds up to a lot of wasted time, but we can't turn back the clock now
But maybe our competition will be weakened next season due to their own trades and contracts, and just maintaining is enough
Forum:
NHL Trades
25 févr. 2019 à 17 h 53
Sujet:
(VAN/PIT) - Gudbranson for Pearson
It's going to be a dirty playoffs. It always was, but even more so with all the TDL acquisitions of extra big bodies hoping for one more contract
Almost all the best teams right now are sneaky dirty. All start brawls after the whistle. Refs are not, and will not be prepared to intervene until things slow down from injuries and suspensions.
Forum:
NHL Trades
25 févr. 2019 à 17 h 12
Sujet:
(ANA/STL) - Del Zotto for 2019 6th round pick
Roster flipping <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/trades/players/michael-del-zotto">https://www.capfriendly.com/trades/players/michael-del-zotto</a>
2020 ANA 7th + Luke Schenn => 2019 STL 6th
great return for a 35 day investment by Anaheim
Forum:
Armchair-GM
25 févr. 2019 à 16 h 50
Sujet:
Stacked as fck
It's going to be a great playoffs
I can't wait to see the upsets against teams that invested everything into winning now
Forum:
Armchair-GM
25 févr. 2019 à 16 h 47
Sujet:
I DONT UNDERSTAND BERG AND OTTAWA
OTT takes VGK's offer over your MTL one 10/10 times.
Would you add Mete into the package?
Forum:
NHL Trades
25 févr. 2019 à 16 h 20
Sujet:
(SJS/DET) - 2019 2nd and 2020 conditional 3rd for Nyquist
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/198379">Here's an armchair GM of a DET/SJS trade for Nyquist</a>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div> I'd say yes for DET to take that high 2nd for one of Glendening or Nyquist, but I don't know about what they need to maintain a positive locker room and avoid Oilers disease.</div>
Forum:
NHL Trades
25 févr. 2019 à 16 h 19
Sujet:
(MIN/WPG) - Hendricks for 2020 7th round pick
Makes sense for WPG to pull out all their cards this year
Laine and Connor are RFAs next year, and Hayes ($5.175) and Trouba ($5.5) are prime aged UFAs
They can extend them all, but the flexibility to load up for the playoffs will disappear until Byfuglien's contract is finished
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