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swinny

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19 mars 2017
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GM13 sept. à 11 h 26
Sujet: Nylanders next contract
I certainly wouldn't offer eight years. That makes contract ending at age 37.
As a UFA, the max would be seven years.

And let's stop this foolishness of what a player wants as any meaning. Every player wants the max.....20% of the cap, so why wouldn't Simon Benoit want 16m?

Leafs decision this year is whether they think it's wise to extend Nylander now, or take their chances on him being a UFA, or just spend that Nylander money on another UFA next summer.
Here's my guess. Leafs don't sign him. Here's to hoping that Nylander stars for the Leafs. Leafs make a deep playoff run. Nylander prices himself out of the Leafs.
Be interesting to see how Nylander reacts to the pressure of NOT having extension.

Oh, your 9.25m. yep I think that is pretty appropriate. If the Leafs were offering 9.25m X 7 today, I gotta think Nylander signs now.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 sept. à 18 h 12
Sujet: The only nylander trade Id do
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SomeonesOffended</b></div><div>Yeah getting a 40 goal scorer and point per game player would totally suck how could I forget</div></div>

When we’re giving up a player who is a better goal scorer than Nylander was at the same age and is cost controlled? Who plays exactly the style we need in our lineup? And we’re also giving up multiple picks? And when we can’t even be sure we’ll be able to re-sign Nylander and even if we do the probability is we’ll completely blow up our cap structure and make it next to impossible to sign Hughes and Nemec to their impending extensions?

No matter how good you think the value is here, it makes absolutely no sense for New Jersey to do this. We’re better off actually using our picks to try to fill other roster weaknesses (like goalie) rather than increasing what is already a position of strength for us (winger), and sticking with Mercer.

I don’t actually think there’s any universe in which it makes sense for New Jersey to trade for Nylander, unless we’re first trading Bratt or Meier. And that isn’t going to happen.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 août à 21 h 16
Sujet: Is the a Joseph deal that makes sense
This is a smart move for both teams.

Sens lose Joseph but get a good 4th liner and clear enough space to sign Pinto

Vegas is hungry for more and a guy like Joseph would look good on Nicolas' wing, really good. Good upgrade for a small amount

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>swinny</b></div><div>Joseph had a down year, but the game is there 100%.

Very underrated two-way player imo. His metrics suffered last year due to the Sens injuries, but as a 3rd line option, could fit a lot of teams..... just the contract is a bit rich in the flat cap space.</div></div>
lol don't listen to that poster. Look at that :

Points/60 at ES in 2021-22 : 1.89 (Joseph) vs 1.72 (Laughton)
Points/60 at ES in 2022-23 : 1.18 (Joseph) vs 1.45 (Laughton)

Joseph better defensive + PK results

In this poster's books, Joseph is a dead weight 4th liner while Laughton is worth 1st + 2nd :tearsofjoy

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>swinny</b></div><div>Long contract? Lol

3 years isn't long. And when the cap goes up and Joseph does what he can truly do, it is a deal that falls in line.

He isn't overpaid by that much.</div></div>
He was overpaid by a million in a down year, but UNDERpaid in 2021-22, he had 30 ES + PK points in 69 games while being a TOP NHL PKer as usual.

He probably might not even be overpaid once again on this contract. He could be a cap casualty for Ottawa to become cap compliant but I am hoping they trade Kubalik for a pick instead (Joseph had a better ES production rate than him over the last 2 years. There's not even PP time for Kubalik, who needs that absolutely)
Forum: Armchair-GM31 juill. à 12 h 18
Sujet: Opening Night
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>swinny</b></div><div>Bear is out until Januray, so there is a lot of runway to figure all that out - although I think his contract will fall in the $3 million range (assuming you went as low as you did thinking proration?).

Even without Bear, I see the Stars being President Trophy candidates. Arguably the best top 9 in the NHL (if Johnston doesn't regress, I am not sure it much of an arguement), a 4th line thhat looks more like a 3rd line, and a more than functional blueline and in Oettinger, one of the top 5 tenders in the NHL.

The sheer fire power this team has offsets any defensive questions some may have. They are gonna score..... and a lot.

Bear is a pretty thought, but not sure he is remotely necessary.

Signed.... a Leafs fan</div></div>

Didn’t know Bear was out as well. Figured he’d get more than that but was a little puzzled as to why nobody had picked him up yet. We were just discussing Jani being out to start the year in a different thread and I was looking at remaining RHD options. Thanks for letting me know. Cheers
Forum: Armchair-GM31 juill. à 9 h 44
Sujet: Going 11-7
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>swinny</b></div><div>I get this argument, but......

At the end of the day, I think filling out the lineup will be a TDL thing. The 11 forwards that project to start are more than capable.of winning regular season games. Further, Keefe went with the 11-7 alignment during last year's playoffs with some success. Games they won.

The real issue is the lack of defensive depth. Laggeson is the #8. Yikes. At forward, Tree &amp; Co. have options..... and these options will be exercised so that smart decisions can be made going into 2024-25....

I never said this was a perfect solution, but it is the solution moving forward right now.</div></div>

Yeah that is true well we see this a lot with the leafs like kerfoot on the first line just trying to sneak by with utilizing whatever they can I see you're point I am hoping to see some more balance these days with such a good core, the talk about sailing through the regular season well actually the core has worked very hard to have good regular seasons look at the point totals and I think Bertuzzi and Domi will help those guys a lot this year so they don't get so overworked in the regular campaign and probably have even better playoff results because of that
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. à 6 h 22
Sujet: Please
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>swinny</b></div><div>Defintely not knocking Nylander's value. Love the guy.... I just don't see a $10 million winger.

You aren't wrong in that the market dictates what players get - eye of the beholder. But Nylander's comparable really are Fiala and Bratt. Similar game styles, similar analytics. Now, if they dictate the market, and the cap goes up $5 million, then it puts Nylander in around that $8.5 million range. Term then becomes the sticky point. Is he asking $10 million over 8? Which if he is, and the cap rises as it did before, then by year 4 it's a good deal. If it's $10 million over 3, I walk away.

And.... you forgot to bring up Cody Franson.... they guy that came off a career year, was asking like $4 million a year at the time. Misread the market so badly, he ended uo in Buffalo for league minimum. Going back a ways, but it is to your point.</div></div>

Agree, but alot of it has to do with team structure. Nylander is producing at pretty much a 90-95% rate as his 3 teammates, but is paid at 65%. Bratt's pay is in line with his team, Carolina is infamous for having a structure through the team...so in a way, if nylander is on the open market or looking to resign with his "new team", hes probably similar to fiala, bratt, gaudreau, etc...but in toronto its a pretty substantial underpayment compared to his teammates.

and youre right, its term and cap increase, matthews, nylander are probably not at their last payday OR going to settle at a discount for a team seemingly in the same place they were six years ago results-wise.

The players, their agents can also see the diminishing prospect pool, draft picks and continued short term solution searching in goal and ufa that the leafs do, with really no further result

Not to say it happens but teams like detroit and philly for example have young teams on the up with multiple Blue chip prospects AND cap space.
Forum: Armchair-GM17 juill. à 11 h 50
Sujet: Stack Laval
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>swinny</b></div><div>No. Given where Minny is, it is impossible. Not even Tom Cruise would pull that off.

The Wild have 3 goalies: Gustavsson (RFA), Fleury (will be UFA) and Wallstadt (arguably the best of the 3).

2024-25, it is safe to say with $14 million in dead cap, Wallstadt is making that team, unless his season completely nosedives - which is unlikely as his numbers look an aweful lot like this guy named Wolf...

I am not a Wild fan at all, but I can tell you that trade is flat out terrible. Beyond terrible. It's so bad Wild fans can't be bothered to bring out the pitchforks.... and that is IF Monahan is a PPG healthy player.</div></div>

Yeah, my line ''Not impossible, but... optimistic'' was mostly sarcastic. Sorry if it wasn't clear.
It's yet another example of somebody who thinks an unhealthy veteran's performances from 7 seasons ago has enough trade value to get a young A+ prospect and more.
We all know from which game the guy has picked this habit...
I still don't understand why people look at video games to gauge trade returns instead of real history. It's not like the data is not available!
Forum: Armchair-GM17 juill. à 0 h 13
Sujet: Is Brodie On The Way Out and Does Vancouver Make Sense
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>He really doesnt have top 4 upside. When he played for us his best traits were on the third pair and PP. With Rielly it was a disaster and once Niemela comes along its back to the third pair again

<div class="tweet"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Connor Timmins, signed to a 2x$1.1M extension by TOR, is a useful defenceman to have near the bottom of the lineup. <a href="https://t.co/qQC9OELi2w" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/qQC9OELi2w</a></p>— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) <a href="https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1623752171492630534?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">February 9, 2023</a></blockquote>

</div>

Hes a good third pair guy but on this team we have Brodie, Klingberg, Liligren so no spot making that 1.1m an expense we should move on from

Added to the fact his PP times gone thanks to Klingberg makes little sense to keep him

Trade him for a 5th or some depth prospect and move on to a cheaper guy to rotate with Giordano like Jones</div></div>

That JFresh card is outdated and relies too heavily on a small sample size, some of which includes his time in Arizona. After getting a guy games with the Leafs and playing in a more favorable system, his stats improved quite a bit. Granted, this is still based on a small sample size, but the improvement is undeniable. He is still very young and has been defensively good in nearly every level of hockey he's played in. The disrespect is unreal

<img class="for_img" src="https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1113527866773213274/1130351338681798706/image.png" alt="image.png">
Forum: NHL Trades10 juill. à 10 h 29
Sujet: (OTT/DET) - DeBrincat for Kubalik, Sebrango, 2024 4th (DET), 2024 1st (DET)
It’s not fair to judge this trade by what Ottawa gave up to get DeBrincat last year. That was a different situation. He was two years away from potential unrestricted free agency, which is not a long time, but Ottawa got cost certainty for the first year at a pretty low cap hit for a 24-year-old coming off his second 41-goal season, which raised his trade value. Although they didn’t make the playoffs, they benefited from his services at a good price for that season. This year they were trading signing rights to an unsigned RFA who wanted out and was going to arbitration.

Better comparisons would be Timo Meier and Pierre-Luc Dubois. Which of those situations is more similar depends on whether you think DeBrincat already had a contract negotiated with Detroit before the trade (which I believe they could do without Ottawa’s permission since he became a RFA on July 1). If not, then Meier is probably the best comparable, though Meier’s trade value should have been higher because in addition to acquiring his RFA signing rights, New Jersey also got him for last year’s playoff run at a reduced cap hit, which was probably worth a late 1st and more just to rent him for that time. If you subtract that from the package New Jersey got for Meier, I think what Ottawa got here is in the same ballpark.

If Detroit had the contract already negotiated, then Dubois is a better comparable. I don’t think the fact that LA signed Dubois for 8 years and Detroit signed DeBrincat for 4 is relevant – the point is that both teams knew they’d be getting a signed player. Winnipeg wanted roster players while Ottawa went more for futures, but it looks like Winnipeg got a better return than Ottawa. Iaffalo is signed for one season more than Kubalik, and Vilardi + Kupari are probably worth more than Sebrango + the 4th-round pick and the difference between the 1st Ottawa got and the 2nd Winnipeg got, but Vilardi and Kupari are unsigned RFAs, so there’s a lot of uncertainty around how long Winnipeg will be able to keep them around and what it’s going to cost them to do so. Of course, there’s also uncertainty around how good Sebrango and the 1st-round draft pick will turn out to be for Ottawa, but they have control over those assets for at least a few years.

One thing we shouldn’t ignore is that Ottawa got another valuable asset in this trade: Cap space. Instead of DeBrincat at whatever he would have been awarded in arbitration, they now have Kubalik at only $2.5M. What that cap space is worth will depend on what they do with it.

In summary, great trade for Detroit, and probably close to market value for Ottawa given their situation.
Forum: NHL Trades9 juill. à 20 h 28
Sujet: (OTT/DET) - DeBrincat for Kubalik, Sebrango, 2024 4th (DET), 2024 1st (DET)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>You know what's fun?

Ottawa got DeBrincat from Chicago. For 7th overall pick + later picks.

Detroit got Kubalik from Chicago. For free.

Detroit got DeBrincat from Ottawa. For Kubalik, nobody prospect, and a potentially low conditional first.

Holy f*cking L for Dorion, all thing considered.</div></div>


I mean if you really think about it. It’s somewhat similar value to what they paid for him to begin with. They get a first that has the potential to be in the mid 15-25 range in a decent draft. They get Kubalik who is probably valued around a late first, early second round pick with his low cap hit, they get Sonrango who was a third round pick in 2020 and was great in the world juniors. Then they get a fourth which closes the gap even more.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 juill. à 18 h 39
Sujet: Well its a move not sure it makes it better
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>swinny</b></div><div>Fair commentary. Where Brodie can chew the minutes, there is value to Borgen's game.

So a follow up question is..... if a prospect D was attached, making this a larger deal, would that work?

Example: Brodie and Niemela for Borgen and a 3rd? Something along those lines? Would that sufficiently address what you have pointed out, or is this more about NHL ready?</div></div>

That might be more interesting depending on how close Niemela is to the NHL, but this is more about current NHL contributors considering both the Leafs and Kraken are trying to contend. Borgen just fits Seattle’s contention window so well that he holds more value to the Kraken than what another team would reasonably give up for him. For that reason, I highly doubt Francis trades Borgen.