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NHLfan10506

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Devils du New Jersey
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Forum: New Jersey Devilsil y a 5 heures
Sujet: New Jersey Devils 2024 Offseason Discussion Thread #1
Devils currently have #10 pick at 81 points

8. SEA: 79 pts (33-34-13): 2 games remaining vs WPG, MIN
9. CGY: 79 pts (37-38-5): 2 games remaining vs VAN, SJS
10. NJD: 81 pts (38-39-5): 0 games remaining

The odds for the final four games are as follow (<a href="https://www.moneypuck.com/index.html?date=2024-04-16" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">per moneypuck</a>)

4/16: SEA 34.3% -- vs -- WPG 65.7%
4/16: CGY 34.0% -- vs -- VAN 66.0%
4/18: SEA 48.8% -- vs -- MIN 51.2%
4/18: CGY 66.1% -- vs -- SJS 33.9%

Since we have the RW tiebreak, both teams would need 3 pts to overtake us. The odds for each:

SEA 3+ points....30.5%
CGY 3+ points....28.8%

Combined...

Both teams gets 3+ points...............8.8%
One team gets 3+ points...............41.7%
SEA &amp; CGY both gets 0-2 points....49.5%

...in other words, Devils pre-lottery position....

8th place............8.8%
9th place..........41.7%
10th place........49.5%

...and when factoring weighted average <a href="https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">lottery odds</a>, the probabilities of NJD actual draft position are as follows

#1 Overall............4.3%
#2 Overall............4.5%
#3 Overall............0.2%
#8 Overall............4.8%
#9 Overall..........29.5%
#10 Overall........46.4%
#11 Overall..........9.8%
#12 Overall..........0.4%

...or if you prefer odds in stead of probability

#1 Overall............1-in-23
#2 Overall............1-in-22
#3 Overall............1-in-650
#8 Overall............1-in-21
#9 Overall............2-in-7
#10 Overall..........1-in-2
#11 Overall..........1-in-10
#12 Overall..........1-in-225

In short, probabilities NJD pick improves/declines

Improves....43.3%
Stays #10...46.4%
Declines.....10.3%
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 10 h 50
Forum: Site DiscussionHier à 8 h 9
Sujet: Cap Errors Megathread
On the <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/reserve-list/goldenknights">Vegas Reserves page</a>, CapFriendly says the signing rights for <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/players/mikhail-vorobyov">Mikhail Vorobyov</a> are to expire on his 27th birthday. Vorobyov turned 27 on January 5, 2024. But <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/813310">Vorobyov's rights were traded </a> on March 6th as part of Hanifin deal (after he turned 27). Perhaps rights didn't expire as he is KHL player?

Other's whose rights should be expired due to 27th birthdate

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/players/yegor-korshkov">Yegor Korshkov</a>
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/players/vladislav-kamenev">Vladislav Kamenev</a>
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jakob-forsbacka-karlsson1">Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson</a>
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/players/aleksi-saarela">Aleksi Saarela</a>
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/players/david-kase">David Kase</a>
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/players/damien-riat">Damien Riat</a>

(and in a few weeks, <a href="https://premium.capfriendly.com/players/vili-saarijarvi" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Vili Saarijarvi</a>)