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justaBoss

What in tarnation
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Forum: NHL20 févr. à 22 h 56
Sujet: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafsfan98</b></div><div>At this point, we all have a pretty good idea who's going to be in the conversation for the Hart and it's that time of year again... So here's my hart list (top 10) if I could vote (Feel free to quote this post and make your own!)

1. Auston Matthews
2. Nathan Mackinnon
3. Nikita Kucherov
4. Cale Makar
5. Quinn Hughes
6. Connor McDavid
7. David Pastrnak
8. Sam Reinhart
9. Thacher Demko
10. Artemi Panarin</div></div>

The league has famously kind of used other rewards to justify where the Hart goes. If Kucherov gets the Art Ross and Matthews the Rocket, then MacKinnon is likely getting the Hart. If Mackinnon wins the scoring race then it'll be Kucherov that gets league MVP. The Selke nominations kind of follow this pattern too (early congrats to Barkov now that Bergeron is no more)

If McDavid (and I think he could legitimately cruise at 2.00ppg for the rest of the season) wins the scoring title then I think Matthews gets the MVP apropos of Colorado was making the playoffs anyways and Kucherov didn't buy himself any voter favour with his half-assed All-Star appearance.
Forum: NHL2 janv. à 16 h 49
Sujet: World Juniors 2024
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafsfan98</b></div><div>They aren't deep and their top isn't as good as Canada's top, despite Canada being much thinner</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>There's no way they are the favorites still with how they've played. I'd take Slovakia or Canada over USA at this point</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafsfan98</b></div><div>Canada is the team to beat IMO... The winner will end up having to go through Canada if Canada doesn't walk on everyone</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafsfan98</b></div><div>Defence is thin...

And again: "In comparison to Canada"... Not to a team like Finland</div></div>


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>WJC_Enthusiast</b></div><div>I respectfully disagree.

While acknowledging my bias as a Canadian, I believe Canada is the team to beat. The US struggled big time against Norway. I unironically thought Norway was the better team in the first period.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>WJC_Enthusiast</b></div><div>I would tend to agree</div></div>

Good call guys
Forum: NHL3 janv. à 13 h 30
Sujet: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #2: Early Overreactions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>Well, first thing is probably that Draisaitl wouldn't be as high up in the numbers either without McDavid lol, but I decided not to take him away from these lists simply to show appreciation to him too, since he's also a great player in his own right. Seeing the names that kept popping up here too more often than others, this is also an appreciation post towards to Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov, cuz man those two are good, and would definitely deserve some more individual accolades and appreciation, but alas it's simply not possible now when there's this McDavid guy.</div></div>

Good stuff. I'm sure MacKinnon and Kucherov are happy with their names on the Cup rather than any individual awards; and I'm sure McDavid would trade any of those for 1 Cup; but it is interesting to see how consistent the #'s 2 -4 guys over that span really are as well as Malkin a couple times early on when he was really dominant.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 nov. 2023 à 7 h 9
Sujet: Do the Oilers have enough confidence to trade an unprotected pick
What's the high reward for the Oilers? Allen and Savard are just okay players at this point in their careers. They might be upgrades on what the Oilers have now but that pales to what they would miss if that pick ends up being top 5 or even top 10. In terms of dumping Campbell, if the cost is 3 1sts to dump him, it's simply not worth it, but even if that's the measure a top 3 pick would be more valuable than three bottom 10 picks, and the 5th overall is slightly less value than three 27OV picks.

The intrinsic value of getting a top-10 selection for the Oilers could be far greater than the Oilers getting away with dumping Campbell for a mere top-10 protected 1st place. That's only amplified if whoever they draft would be NHL-ready. Worst case they buyout Campbell and stick that ELC player into the lineup.

On the other hand, the risk for MTL is pretty low in comparison, Allen at full cap hit is probably worth like a 3rd, and Savard may be a 2nd at best. MTL's 2nd probably ends up being somewhere between 42-47 OV but even if they somehow fall to 32nd in the league, any 1st rounder the value comes slightly ahead of the 28th OV pick. So, on that front they end up basically breaking even with the likelihood that they end up ahead. So, the only downside is having to take back Campbell's contract at a heavily discounted rate/ for free.


So, it's really high risk - low reward for the Oilers and low/medium risk - high reward for the Canadiens. To answer the title, no they wouldn't have the confidence, only 25% of the teams that are out of a playoff spot at this point make it in, and the chances for a bottom 5 team in the standings to do it is super low.
Forum: Armchair-GM27 août 2023 à 1 h 6
Sujet: Rebuild due to boredom
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>turtlemountain</b></div><div>CoachCoach - thanks for the response! I was more mentioning that other guy because he went through the thread name calling and then disappeared when people earnestly tried to engage.

As for the list of players: of course we don’t know who would be willing to sign where, personal lives, etc. My intent wasn’t to literally say: sign each of these guys. The point of listing so many options is from those 8+ guys, I feel like you can at least find a handful of options that are more compelling than the options Detroit committed to long term.

Detroit did some of them (again, I like Petry at his low cap hit. Ghostbear at a high hit for 1 year is totally reasonable). But the Yzerplan has had some big misses imo.</div></div>

Already mentioned above but I just want to echo that as a Wings fan that has truly dug into this, and looked at these signings, I don't view any of the signings as big misses like some surface wings fans and fans from around the league do. You've provided sound analysis so I believe you're one that can come around on this and I'll explain:

- There is probably no reasonable, or especially sustainable way, the wings can seriously compete before the 25-26 season (likely Yzerman aware for some time)

- As a former player, Yzerman likely believes strongly in winning culture, setting a standard, etc etc you get the picture
- There is also the business side of hockey and the Wings have missed the playoffs for what will be close to 10 years, with a fan base used to success
- The Wings had some players in their prime, or entering their prime (Hronek, Larkin, Bert) that decision day was closing in on for new contracts
- Importantly to the above, would these players want to continue on a directionless team? One that has not been very competitive their whole career (long enough now)
- either move on from that era (Larkin, Bert) completely (delaying success further down the line), or try to figure out what is worth keeping around
- Yzerman chose to become more competitive and I completely support that. Didn't exactly have pick of the litter on UFAs though as a result of the last decade.
- This results in Chiarot, Maata, Kubalik, Perron (good!), Copp being signed. Does it improve the team? Definitely. Does it send a message to the team we are trying to improve? Definitely.
-Lots happened last season that needed to be cleaned up and Larkin even acknowledged there were a lot of things in the dressing room that were addressed - In addition, Bert injuries, Vrana issues, Hronek looking great but terrible at the same time. And of course, the decisions on re-signing Larking, Bert etc.
- This results in making the most of the situation, acquiring more assets (ASP, Boston 1st), keeping Larkin and moving on from a fair amount of the older regime.
- But the important bit is keeping Larkin - Thus, we don't have forever to go before being competitive and the young guys grow with a team trying to compete.

Back around to earlier point: 25-26 as first year we might seriously compete (but keep in mind, playoffs before then are desirable).
- Chiarot 4 years at 4.75 - expires in 2026
- Maata 1 year and then 2 years at 3 mil - expires in 2025
- Copp 5 years at 5.625 - expires in 2027
- Perron think we all agree was very good signing and is up this year
- Kubalik also short term and used in trade
- Compher 5 years at 5.1 - expires 2028
- Holl 3 years at 3.4 - expires in 2026
- Ghost, Walman, Petry, Kostin, Fischer are all low-risk, low-term, low-money deals that likely make this team better.
So the conclusion here: Yes, a few of these guys are overpaid and a few got probably what they were worth on the open market. A few got a bit more term than what was maybe desirable. THAT IS HOW WINGS GOT THEM TO SIGN HERE.

But here is the big couple of points:
- Only a couple of these guys are signed past 25-26 when we expect to be competing
- They should be relatively easy to get rid of contracts if necessary, and the wings have a good cap situation
- They should help mentor the young players and provide support - heck, Copp and Compher aren't exactly going to be washed at 31 are they? Likely are very good middle six 2 way players to pair with Kasper and Danielson to ease them into their role, and also help the team win now and then.
- The ones like Chiarot and Holl that everyone think are terrible have been role players in the past, have playoff experience, and would be fairly suitable as 6/7 dmen vets on a competitive team
- Would they be paid too much in that role? Yes, but for only 1 year on a team with no current cap issues that could easily get rid of them IF HAD TO
- Are they blocking the young players? Hardly. I am all for making the prospects earn their spot and now they have to. If these guys are as bad as some believe, they easily should earn that spot. But the competitive culture created is so much better! Many of the prospects are not yet ready and there is no one to block, yet we are still becoming more competitive now, and that is what the direction is trending towards. Build through the draft, subsidize through trades and ufas.

We can't pretend to know everything that goes on in the league, but reality is that not every player wants to go to Detroit, and not every player is a fit. Yzerman can only sign willing parties and at times may have to pay extra for those that are willing. We also don't know what offers these players had from other teams - lest we forget Chiarot was traded for a 1st. Now, that's not to say gun to his head he absolutely had to sign Holl and Chiarot. But let's face it, they play a depth, solidifying, veteran presence role on a team with a lot of uncertainty and change. Some Steadiness is likely a good thing, and yes, that even means their presence on mid-term deals. Their experience, grittiness, and even expendability (easier to scratch when beat out than a fan favourite lol) can be positives. Many of these signings have improved the team, improved the competitive culture of the team, and not handcuffed us long term or blocked the prospects from a spot. There is more depth for injuries as well. Checks across the board from me.

Sorry that is a lot, hope some of it makes sense. Just trying to honestly explain what has happened, why it has happened, and that it all fits into a reasonable plan for success. I personally think they earn a playoff spot this year.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 août 2023 à 10 h 48
Sujet: Rebuild due to boredom
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Billy12Bob</b></div><div>There's a thing called reality that comes into play too. Or do you have a habit of ignoring it?

Detroit have one good RD in Seider. Who would you have Yzerman sign instead of Holl and Petry? Were they even available this offseason? What would they have cost?

Detroit have three prospects on RD in ASP, Tuomisto and Gibson. None of them will be ready this year or even next year.

Detroit have two ready prospects on LD but they are both still recovering from season ending injuries with a shoulder surgery for Edvinsson and they won't be ready for the opening game.

The signings Yzerman have done this season are not blocking any prospects from getting icetime since there is no prospect ready to play when the season starts and on the right side there won't be anyone for at least two more years.

The two of you are both ignorant fools!</div></div>

Thanks for the name calling. I have a lot of thoughts but I’ll hold my tongue lol.

To directly answer your question, I wouldn’t be making long term commitments to players who are marginal. Chiarot is overpaid. Holl is overpaid. Both got term.

There are always options on the market that are able to provide cheap depth and play up on the lineup. I like the Petry move as a cheap stabilizing depth player. I think targeting Ghostbear at 1 year is a reasonable gamble.

To provide you with a few alternatives because you asked so nicely, here are a few off the top of my head:

- Caleb Jones just signed for peanuts with Carolina
- Dumba’s deal in Arizona seems like a reasonable risk (similar to Ghostbear)
- Hamonic and Ian Cole both signed for cheap if you want a vet
- Kyle Burroughs is a cheap depth option that can be buried in the AHL once you’re done with him
- Lybushkin was available for cheap as a trade option like a week ago
- Durzi as a young right shot option was a bit more expensive but probably fits Detroit’s window better
- Every year there are tons of young guys that pass through waivers due to a log jam on their roster. Leafs ACGMs post Timmins for a 4th daily because they worry about him being a waiver casualty

These are just deals I remember, I’m sure there are others you could pick pretty easily. Detroit committing money and term to guys that are stop gaps is not necessarily aligned with what I would do.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 août 2023 à 10 h 9
Sujet: Rebuild due to boredom
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>Exposed my ignorance of Detroit's defense...sure man, whatever floats your boat.

It's a fairly accurate statement that DET has been adding meh D-man for a good while now, to the point they have to place a $3M dollar player as a healthy scratch, and have no room at all for any of the youths you mentioned unless injuries happen.

You're reading too much into this trade. It's a 7th D swap between Suter and Määttä, neither one is a lock to make to the lineup. DET gets a 2nd for taking in a worse player, although they'd play the same role. That trade wouldn't change anything for their core.</div></div>

Not sure how calling Chiarot, Holl, and Maatta mediocre is a controversial take. Chiarot at $4.75 and Holl at $3.4 for 3 more seasons is more than just a stopgap measure.