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jr400

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Forum: NHL Trades8 mars à 22 h 29
Sujet: (SJS/VGK) - Hertl, 2025 3rd (SJS), 2027 3rd (SJS) for Edstrom, 2025 1st (VGK)
I’m voting for San Jose, but I also feel a bit like both teams may have screwed themselves.

I know San Jose wanted to get rid of Hertl’s contract, so the fact that they got a positive return for him is probably good, though having to retain salary long-term again to make it work must hurt.

I don’t understand this trade for Vegas. I don’t see a place in the lineup for him, and he’ll take up almost $7M in cap space next season that they could have used to sign players who seem like they should be more valuable to them, like Marchessault, Hanifin, Carrier, Dorofeyev, Stephenson, Mantha and Martinez. Assuming Stone comes off LTIR by next season and Lehner doesn’t, they now have about $74M in cap hit tied up in players who are already signed, which doesn’t leave much for the guys I just named if they want to try to bring some of them back. The only thing that would make sense to me would be if they don’t think those guys are coming back, so they brought in Hertl to replace one of them. Otherwise it looks like the trade for Dadonov all over again – wasting cap space on a guy they don’t need and will be trying to get rid of before long.
Forum: NHL Trades8 mars à 21 h 19
Sujet: (CGY/PHI/VGK) - Hanifin for for Miromanov, 2024 5th (VGK), 2025 1st (VGK), 2025 3rd (VGK)
They say this “circumvention” rule is fair because all teams can use it, but that’s not true. Teams can use it only if they happen to have injuries that take them to the end of the regular season.

LTIR exists to enable teams to replace players who have serious injuries. That makes sense, but they should never be able to turn it into an advantage. That incents teams to try to get their players hurt, provided they can time it right. I don’t think any team would do that intentionally, but a rule that creates such a possibility is morally wrong.

One way to solve this problem would be to say that if a player is on LTIR at end of the regular season, he can’t come back for the playoffs. However, the NHL isn’t just competition, it’s also entertainment. They don’t want their best players sitting in the press box if they’re capable of playing. The real problem is that the salary cap doesn’t count in the playoffs. They may have decided on that because it’s very difficult to clear cap space after the trade deadline, since you can’t trade away players. I think the rule should be that your team can be over the cap during the playoffs, but under no circumstances can the players you dress for a game have a combined cap hit that’s above the cap. That way you can bring back your injured players, but you can’t stack the team around them with all the extra players you brought in to replace them. Or you could if you could find some other way to take money out of the lineup. Basically, you’d probably have to scratch your most overpaid players rather than your weakest players. Such a team would still have an advantage over a team that’s cap compliant, but not as much as now, when they can dress whomever they want even if they’re way over the cap.
Forum: NHL Trades8 mars à 19 h 56
Sujet: (CGY/PHI/VGK) - Hanifin for for Miromanov, 2024 5th (VGK), 2025 1st (VGK), 2025 3rd (VGK)
I’m getting annoyed by all these people claiming teams trading rentals are getting fleeced. When trading a rental, you can’t expect to get back anything worth anywhere near as much as the guy you’re trading. That’s not how it works. It’s attractive to the other team only because they can get him at a fraction of his value. The only way to get equal value would be to trade him for another rental, which only makes sense if you think you have a better chance of signing the guy you trade for.

Most top rentals get traded for a late 1st-round draft pick (late because you’re normally dealing with a playoff team), plus another one or two less valuable assets such as later picks or roster players who need to be moved to clear cap space. I don’t know much about Miromanov, but based on the contract extension, Calgary thinks he’s a full-time NHL player. That makes him more valuable than a 2nd-round pick, because most of those don’t become full-time NHL players. The fact that, unlike a draft pick, they don’t have to wait for him to develop is also worth something. So Calgary got a 1st, a 3rd that has about a 50% chance of becoming a 2nd, and a player who’s probably worth at least somewhere between a 1st and a 2nd. That’s an excellent return for a rental of any caliber. The only thing you can rightfully criticize is that Conroy accepted a 1st in 2026 instead of 2024. (I suspect Vegas didn’t want to trade their 2024 1st-round pick because they’re hosting the draft, so they’ll pick somebody and trade him later.) If there’s any consolation for that, it looks like it’s unprotected, so if Vegas falls out of the playoffs by then, it could turn out to be a much better pick than any 2024 pick they might have got instead.
Forum: NHL Trades8 mars à 19 h 5
Sujet: (WSH/CAR) - Kuznetsov for 2025 3rd (CAR)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BCAPP</b></div><div>Can someone who follows Carolina explain the fit to me here? Ignoring all the uniqueness of the situation (I think it's a reasonable gamble for a mid pick for his upside if a team trusts its player leadership group to insulate from any such issues), but it seems an odd fit on the ice

I don't watch Carolina beyond when they play teams I do watch so I may just be missing something, but it seems to me they have a #1c in aho, then 3 top 9 C's already in Staal, Drury, and KK. Plus my understanding is Necas is at least comfortable at c and maybe Jarvis too. So why are they of all teams acquiring him?</div></div>

I can see the logic here for Carolina. They haven’t had a good #2 center since Trocheck left. They actually planned for that by acquiring Kotkaniemi and grooming him to step into that role when the time came, but he’s regressed after a strong start this season, and he’s back on the fourth line. Jack Drury is centering the second line now, but it’s his first full season and he’s still developing. Not ideal for a cup contender. Jordan Staal is more cut out for a third-line role at this stage in his career, and that’s where they want to keep him. Necas and Jarvis seem better suited to the wing.

I think Kuznetsov would be worth taking a chance on if he was a pending UFA. The idea of him setting up Guentzel so Svechnikov can stay with Aho sounds intriguing, but I don’t like the commitment to a full season at almost $4M cap hit with all the expiring contracts Carolina has. That’s money they might have been able to use to extend Skjei, Pesce or Teravainen. A buyout would save $1M of that and push another $1M out to 2025-26, but that’s when Slavin’s next contract would be kicking in. Even at 50% retained he seems more like a liability than an asset, so the draft pick was a gift to Washington. At best this should have been a “future considerations” trade, but losing the third-rounder isn’t going to hurt Carolina unless they want to give somebody an offer sheet this summer.

I’m not saying I expect him to fail. The fact that he realized he needed help and got it, and was humble enough to report to the minors after clearing waivers is a good sign. I’m just commenting on what I feel his trade value should have been today. I really hope he embraces the opportunity to get his life and career back on track. That would be a win for everybody.
Forum: NHL Trades8 mars à 17 h 21
Sujet: (PIT/CAR) - Guentzel, Smith for Bunting, Koivunen, Ponomarev, Lucius, 2024 2nd (PHI), 2024 5th (CAR)
My opinion seems to be different from the consensus here.

My initial gut reaction when the trade was announced was Dubas hit a home run, and giving up a top-6 forward with term and half of your prospect pool for a rental you’re probably not going to re-sign is uncharacteristically irresponsible for Waddell. He’s always seemed to find a way to contend now while also building for the future – probably a smart strategy for a team in a non-traditional small market that probably wouldn’t have the patience for another long rebuild.

After sleeping on it, I still think Pittsburgh got a great return for a rental – more on why later – but I like it for Carolina too. They have a lot of players with contracts expiring this summer and next. (Only Aho, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Staal and Kochetkov are signed beyond that.) They should be able to keep some of them, but they’ll need to make some tough decisions on the others. This is probably the year for Waddell to break from his strategy and go all in. That said, even after this trade they still have all their draft picks this year (pending resolution of the conditions) and their prospect pool is smaller but doesn’t look totally depleted.

Was Guentzel the right guy for Carolina to go after? Obviously we won’t know until he plays for them, but I say yes. They’ve been wanting a goal scorer, and he was the best available, probably the only one likely to have a real impact on this already deep team. I was thinking they would go after Buchnevich because he has another year left on his contract, but for that reason he would have cost them more, and I think Guentzel is a better fit for what they need. The only negative is unless he really loves it in Carolina, I think he’ll be strictly a rental. If he wants a big 7-year contract, I don’t think Carolina will give that to somebody his age, though at least they’ll have a chance to see how well he fits in before they decide what they are willing to offer, instead of waiting to make a pitch for him as a UFA.

Now let’s look at it from Pittsburgh’s perspective. First, let’s remember that Jake Guentzel is a rental. Renting is attractive only because it costs less than buying (at least in the short term). When you trade a pending UFA, you never get back equal value, and to expect that, you would be unrealistic. People are talking like they expected Pittsburgh to get a guy who’s just as good as Jake Guentzel. That doesn't happen when you’re trading a rental.

A lot of people seem upset that they didn’t get a guaranteed first-round pick. This is a very narrow view based on us being conditioned to top tier rentals being traded for a package that almost always includes 1st-round pick, but what is that pick worth? Carolina’s 1st-round pick is #25 based on today’s standings. I think it’s too soon to judge anybody drafted in 2020 or later, so let’s look at the 5 years before that. The #25 picks those years were Jack Roslovic, Riley Tufte, Ryan Poehling, Dominik Bokk and Connor McMichael, so while some teams do find stars late in the first round (Jake Oettinger and Tage Thompson were #26 picks), you’re just as likely to get a guy who never establishes himself as an NHL player. Seems that there’s a good chance that at least one of these guys will become an NHL player, and if it’s Koivunen or Ponomarev, they’ll be there years before a 2024 1st-round pick. That’s worth a lot to Pittsburgh because they don’t want to wait until Crosby and Malkin are retired before the see any benefits from this trade. And by the way, there’s probably a 15-20% chance they’ll get that 1st-round pick that all of you think is so important anyway, in addition to these prospects.

Another thing that makes this a good trade for Pittsburgh is Michael Bunting. Don’t get me wrong – he’s no Jake Guentzel – but he’s proven he can play on the top line with elite players, so he could immediately slide into Guentzel’s spot. I would argue that even if none of the prospects and draft picks work out, it’s still a good trade for Pittsburgh because they got a replacement for Guentzel for two more years at a reasonable cap hit, and they can use the cap space they save by replacing Guentzel with Bunting to add in another area this summer.

Finally, I don’t know if there’s any chance of Guentzel going back to Pittsburgh, but if they have any designs on that, they kept that possibility open by trading him to a team that seems unlikely to sign him.
Forum: NHL Trades8 mars à 0 h 3
Sujet: (OTT/FLA) - Tarasenko for 2024 4th (FLA), 2025 3rd (FLA)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>Vladimir Tarasenko confirmed that the Florida Panthers were the only team he was willing to waive his no-trade clause for.

“This was the only place I was thinking about.”</div></div>

So how does that GM conversation go?

Staios: Hey, Bill. It's Steve Staios.
Zito: Who?
Staios: Steve Staios, in Ottawa. You interested in Tarasenko?
Zito: Not really. We’re looking for more of a Barclay Goodrow type.
Staios: Goodrow’s got 6 career playoff goals. Tarasenko has 44. He’s a clutch player.
Zito: I don’t know. We’re happy with our top 6.
Staios: You can put him on the third line. Don’t you need depth scoring in the playoffs?
Zito: Why don’t you try Carolina? They need a goal scorer, and they’ve got two second round picks.
Staios: He doesn’t want go there. He’s got a no-move.
Zito: You’re kidding. I thought he almost signed there last summer.
Staios: He wants to play in Florida. He’s working with the Tkachuks’ uncle or something.
Zito: We don’t need him.
Staios: Everybody can use another scorer. What if somebody gets hurt? Make me an offer.
Zito: Oh, I don’t know. Ah… a 3rd and a 4th. I gotta go. I’ve got a meeting with Forsling’s agent.
Staios: Come on, Bill. I just started this job. Don’t make me look like a stooge.
Zito: Two thirds if we win the cup. That’s the best I can do. And you have to retain 50%. I don’t want to spend the rest of the week trying to clear cap space for a guy I don’t even need.
Staios: Can you give me a 2nd if I throw in Kubalik?
Zito: Go away.
Staios: Ok, we’ve got a deal.
Forum: NHL Trades7 mars à 22 h 15
Forum: NHL Trades7 mars à 20 h 8
Sujet: (CHI/CAR) - Forsberg, Forsling for De Haan, Saarela
Isn't this a fun trade to look back on? Total fleece by Carolina, but did they have any idea what they had, or were they just trying to free up cap space by trading for two guys they could bury? They signed both of them -- twice each -- so they must have seen some value, but they only got a total of three NHL games out of them (all by Forsberg) before losing them both to waivers. Meanwhile Chicago traded Saarela to Florida a few months later, and DeHaan eventually signed with Carolina again after his contract ran out, this time only for one year at league minimum.

I guess you have to give Carolina a big win in hindsight, even though they squandered it afterward, though they did achieve what they set out to do at the time, which was free up cap space.
Forum: NHL Signings7 mars à 19 h 2
Forum: NHL Signings7 mars à 18 h 34
Sujet: Florida Panthers signed Gustav Forsling (8 Years / $5,750,000 AAV)
He’s come a long way from being a 5th round pick who was waived twice. The term may be a bit long for his age, but the cap hit is a bargain for a top-pair guy, and he was a bit of a late bloomer so maybe he’ll be a late fader.

Guys like Forsling are exactly why waivers exists. Carolina had the foresight to trade for him, but no room for him on their roster. I just checked his career stats and I was surprised to see that he never played a game for Carolina. I thought he had gotten into a few as an injury call-up. Maybe I'm confusing him with the other guy they got in that trade, Anton Forsberg. What a steal that trade was for Carolina, if only they knew what they had. They were really just trying to free up cap space.
Forum: NHL Trades7 mars à 1 h 41