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handsomeIAN

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30 avr. 2019
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Hurricanes de la Caroline
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Forum: Armchair-GM6 juin 2022 à 11 h 56
Sujet: Strome Unqualified
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dickie_boon</b></div><div>that goaltending is awful and id think strome gets qualified hes solid</div></div>

I've heard reports that they may not qualify and that's what this whole scenario is based on. I think that they certainly should do so. They didn't qualify Pius Suter last year!
As for goaltending, these are three guys that came in with pedigrees in the draft (well, two of them) and haven't gotten much of a shot. They've been decent where they have played and I'd expect that you should get average goaltending out of them at the cheap. That's better than what Toronto got last year and let's you invest elsewhere with no risk and some upside. If it doesn't pan out you can move to replace them. Better than tying up big money and term in an even older goalie that you just hope to be average, anyways.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 mai 2019 à 18 h 53
Sujet: Lou OSes Marner 11M AAV Sign Karlsson Instead and Fire Babcock
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>joshelkin</b></div><div>Maybe they reach a middle ground in this scenario, but it wouldn't include Pulock/Dobson/Wilde. I'd rather keep Pulock, not accept a cap dump in Zaitsev, and just pay the 4 firsts if these are the two options</div></div>

The thinking here is that Lou signed Zaitsev in the first place, and these guys tend not to change their opinions about players very quickly. I guess they might want to give up four firsts. I'd take that tooif it came to it.
Four 1sts from the Isles, a team that wildly overperformed this year that is being managed by an imbecile, could turn into some lottery picks. You could end up with Alexis Lafreniere, because they wouldn't be lottery protected. So just the possibility of including lottery protection would pretty much force NYI to come to the table.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 mai 2019 à 15 h 59
Sujet: Lou OSes Marner 11M AAV Sign Karlsson Instead and Fire Babcock
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Why would Ottawa do that trade? I'd rather wait for the offer sheet, instead of make a trade you don't like. Rather hold the long term cap space instead of spending it Karlsson.</div></div>

There's no scenario where the Leafs should not be spending all their cap space every year (or any team, really). You need to pay attention to the long term outlook, obviously, but if rebuilding you should be weaponizing it every year to acquire assets and if not you should be maxing it out to compete/acquire assets. Held cap space simply expires; it's a waste!
Acquiring the best D in the league on a long term deal, who is a RHD, is maybe the best possible use of cap space for the Leafs right now. The time for them to compete started three seasons ago with Matthews, Marner and Nylander on ELCs, instead, Lou clogged up the cap with half-measures designed to "build character" because he considers hockey teams his own personal doll house and doesn't understand aging curves or the salary cap. So instead, the time to compete is now, while they are still young.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 mai 2019 à 16 h 55
Sujet: Being Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lenny7</b></div><div>Wowzer. "Anaheim seems pretty dumb".
<strong>
Things that YOUR GM/Management team did that probably weren't that great:</strong> SIGNED NIKITA ZAITSEV TO A 6 YEAR DEAL.

THEY ALSO OVERPAID AND SIGNED PATRICK MARLEAU TO A 3 YEAR DEAL. (Side note: If all of us knew 3 years ago when they signed him that they'd be putting themselves in cap trouble, how did your management team, which is CLEARLY smarter than anyone in rinky dink old SoCal, not see this coming?).

THEY ALSO WAITED OUT NYLANDER AND STILL OVERPAID HIM.

It took them picking in the top 8 3 years in a row (And 4 out of 5 if we consider Rielly...) to amass any talent whatsoever, and they lucked out with a ping pong ball to get Auston Matthews. Congrats to what is clearly a management team that is far superior to everyone else. Interesting and fun fact: The one year that they didn't pick in the top half of the draft, they took Freddy Gauthier (The Ducks took Shea Theodore 6 picks later).

<strong>Bad things Bob Murray has done:</strong> Sign Perry super long term.

Sign Kesler super long term.

<strong>Good things Bob Murray has done:</strong> Had a team that won the Pacific 5 years in a row. Signed Rakell to one of the most team friendly deals in the league. Signed Kase to an extremely team friendly deal. Drafted Comtois in the second round. Drafted a pretty significant group of prospects without picking in the top half of the draft (Steel, Larsson, Comtois, Terry, Olivier-Groulx, Morand, Lundestrom, Mahura).</div></div>

I was maybe the harshest critic of GM Lou in Toronto and roundly called him out for signing Marleau, who I claimed was a 3rd line winger at the time he signed and only going to get worse. I also thought the Zaitsev deal was excessive in term. I hated pretty much everything he's done and think he's a bad GM.
ANA employed Randy Carlyle for how long? Carlyle is the worst and most damaging coach you could employ in the league. I don't think their player moves have been especially good or bad for the league average, but hiring/not firing Randy shows a real dearth of judgment.
I like Kase a lot and said that he's probably elite 3 years ago.
Almost all teams are bad at mgmt. Only a few have recently gotten good to decent at it (CAR for awhile now, maybe TBL, COL lately, maybe TOR *fingers crossed, possibly NJD) and the rest are bad and a few are actively hurting themselves (ex: Chiarelli, Holland, Lou, Lombardi, Bowman, Tallon, Fenton has been a wrecking ball lately).
Don't take a personal if I say ANA "is probably dumb". Most teams are "probably dumb".
Forum: Armchair-GM10 mai 2019 à 15 h 46
Sujet: Being Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lenny7</b></div><div>By any chance, are you just throwing team names out there and trying to make him stick somewhere now? Apart from Ottawa (who he wouldn't waive for), the other three teams that you named all either have their own potential cap issues (Anaheim if Kesler doesn't go on LTIR), or have the money to go out and sign an actual big name (NYR/NYI).

Next it'll be "Well Arizona is a cap floor team, so they should give up Chychrun so that they can get to the cap floor with Marleau".

Come on man.</div></div>

ANA has an internal cap, so I mentioned them. They also seem pretty dumb so who knows, maybe they think Marleau is good. Lou is the one that signed him and has the cap space. It was stupid to sign him then so I wouldn't rule out him acquiring him now. NYR, I'm not sure what they will be doing. I think that you can rebuild teams pretty quick but if they were looking to tank they could be a floor team. Unlikely though, I agree they're probably hunting. OTT is the best fit really.
I don't think it makes sense for ARZ.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 mai 2019 à 15 h 42
Sujet: Being Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lenny7</b></div><div>"Salary dump" and "rosterable" can be put in the same sentence (Though 'rosterable' isn't a word, so it probably shouldn't...). I would never say that 100% of cap dumps don't still end up in the NHL, because they often do.

Here's a short list of reasons why he's a cap dump though:
-Toronto needs to shed cap. In this case, Zaitsev is the mediocre player that you're shedding, and he's owed a ton of money. Therefore, he's a cap dump.
-Nobody is going to step in to save the Leafs from themselves. If Zaitsev is moving, it's because the Leafs need to move him. Therefore, he's a cap dump.
-Zaitsev is a bottom pairing dman on any team with a solid D core. If this is the case, he's being overpaid, and is therefore a cap dump.</div></div>

Zaitsev has 5 years left. Can you name a historical cap dump deal that happened with this kind of term left? I can't.
You wouldn't trade him to a team with a "solid" RHD side. You'd trade him to one that has no one there but an injured Stephen Johns, plenty of cap room and a window they perceive as closing. So the Stars make sense. Reiterate: anyone trading for him necessarily believes he is a top4 player. It doesn't matter what the Leafs think of him. It matters what the other team thinks. Maybe no one out there wants him, but if they don't he's not moving. Not as a cap dump, unless the Leafs are throwing top prospects and 1st rounders into it. It cost Teuvo Teravainen+ to to dump two years of injured Bryan Bickell. The price to "dump" Zaitsev is prohibitive.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 mai 2019 à 15 h 37
Sujet: Being Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>As for Marner, I think he'll get a bridge. 3x9 works, or maybe they go 5 years with him and he gets 10.5. An 8 year deal would be huge. 12 maybe? I don't think he wants an 8 year deal.</div></div>

I'm sorry, I didn't know that Mitch Marner was the best player in the NHL. I thought he was just a very good young player, probably elite, who came off a really good season where he had a lot of power play success and played with a bonafide elite center.
I don't understand how people believe that this guy should be paid more money than any player except Connor McDavid. They should honestly trade him or take the compensation if someone offers him that, or let him stew as an RFA. I'd be shopping him to see what I could get if his demands held at close to $10M for a long term deal as is. Wouldn't necessarily trade him but I'd see what offers were.
I would say the unjustified and crazy scenario is paying this guy McDavid money when every comparable says otherwise and he's an RFA.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 mai 2019 à 15 h 23
Sujet: Being Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>totally, completely, 100% untradeable. He has a full no movement clause. He has a 35+ contract. He has a signing bonus that needs to be paid in full if he's bought out, and even if he's bought out the team that buys him out gets 0 cap relief. There is one feasible destination for Marleau, and it's toronto.

the marner contract isn't feasible either.</div></div>

You could have just said "Marleau is probably untradeable" and that would have been fair.
A team like OTT wouldn't buy Marleau out, they'd play him. If you read what I wrote you'd see that after July 1st his money is paid save $1.25M. The contract would save Eugene Melnyk $5M real dollars. If you think it's unfeasible that Eugene wouldn't be somewhat interested in doing this, well, maybe you don't know Eugene. It's more whether Marleau would facilitate it or a similar deal.
I think the Marner contract is probably more than his real value. What do you think he'll get?
Forum: Armchair-GM10 mai 2019 à 15 h 13
Sujet: Being Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lenny7</b></div><div>"People say you won't get anything back for him, but the thing is, you would; anyone who would trade for him thinks he is a Top4D and is going to expect to pay something for him. A mid-level prospect and a mid-round pick seems fair."

:tearsofjoy :tearsofjoy :tearsofjoy

I love these. You could ask just about every Leaf fan what the teams biggest need is, and they would either say "Top pairing RHD", or "Top 4 RHD".

It's also great because most people overvalue their own players/prospect. YOUR OWN FANS don't even think this guy is a top 4 dman. If he was, they wouldn't all be trading him away in every friggin' Leafs thread. Any team that's going to invest $20+ million dollars in this guy is going to want some sort of compensation to do so.</div></div>

Look, NO ONE would trade for someone with this salary and term and harbour him as a SALARY DUMP. That is the unrealistic scenario. The only teams trading for Zaitsev will necessarily be one that believes he IS a rosterable D, hence they will be expecting to pay SOMETHING. If a Zaitsev deal gets done, there is zero chance you will see it getting done where a team takes him on as a salary dump; something will come back as a hockey trade.
GMs often have different thoughts then a fanbase or an analyst. This is not unusual or prohibitive of a deal and history demonstrates this clearly.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 mai 2019 à 15 h 5
Sujet: Being Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>So you say Heed is good and he signs as RHD UFA for 1.2m. But Zaitsev and his 4.5m gets a return in a trade. Now I think Zaitsev is OK but wouldn't Heed and the Stars be 10 times signing for 3m?
Hence the trouble with trading 4.5m Zaitsev, thinking you get something in return, however than expecting to sign a competent NHLer for 1.2m</div></div>

The NHL isn't exactly the most efficient league in terms of player evaluation and roster construction. Exhibit A: VGK is a top 5 team cobbled together from what other teams considered garbage. Never before has it been more obvious that most NHL mgmt teams are very stupid and nearly none of them could be accused of being particularly innovative or creative. Heed's contract projection comes from Evolving Wild's projection model, and I kicked in a little extra money.