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drewjenks

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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GM28 avr. 2020 à 1 h 45
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockeytor15</b></div><div>Tell me how his stats are even near similar to Kerfoots?</div></div>

<strong>Alex Kerfoot - First 2 NHL Seasons</strong>

14:09 = Average Ice Time
157 = Games Played
34 = Goals Scored
51 = Assists
85 = Points

0.217 = Goals / Game <strong>(Loss)</strong>
0.325 = Assist / Game <strong>(Win)</strong>
0.541 = Points / Game <strong>(Win)</strong>
2.304 = Points / 60-Min <strong>(Win)</strong>

-------------------------

<strong>Conor Garland - First 2 NHL Seasons</strong>

13:36 = Average Ice Time
115 = Games Played
35 = Goals Scored
22 = Assists
57 = Points

0.304 = Goals / Game <strong>(Win)</strong>
0.191 = Assist / Game <strong>(Loss)</strong>
0.495 = Points / Game <strong>(Loss)</strong>
2.186 = Points / 60-Min <strong>(Loss)</strong>

-----------------------

<strong>"Tell me how his stats are even near similar to Kerfoots?"</strong>

Seems like you're looking for conflict where there isn't any:

- Garland is clearly the better goal scorer.
- Kerfoot is clearly the better play-maker.
- Kerfoot has an edge in points per game.
- Kerfoot has an edge in points per 60 min.
- Both players were 23 in their first season.
- Both players were 24 in their 2nd season.
- Both players are 5'10 and close to 170 lbs.
- Kerfoot plays at C while Garland plays RW.

I didn't even say Kerfoot's stats were better (even though there's an argument for it).
I said their stats are similar, which is true (even if we add in Kerfoot's current season).

I should also note that Pierre Engvall's rookie stats are similar to Garland's rookie stats.
Engvall is younger than Garland as will (he's also 6'5, kills penalties and can play center).
Engvall could very well end up being as good or better than Garland in the near future.

And buying out a contract like Kessel's would likely net Toronto a 2nd round pick (or better).
Factor that in and Toronto would giving up <strong>Kerfoot + Engvall + 2nd + 2nd + 3rd</strong> for Garland.
Why give up 2 similar players (two of Toronto's best 3rd line center options) plus 3 high picks?

<strong>I'd 100% take Garland over Kerfoot straight up, but I stand by my comments.</strong>
Forum: NHL Signings20 avr. 2020 à 15 h 39
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>Well lets see how this go around is going to turn out. The common "con" of his scouting reports from what I recalls was:

-Low work ethic and compete level
-Struggled to pull himself out a slump
-Defensive game </div></div>

I remember reading a couple (translated) articles about him last fall.
Both mentioned that his compete level and 2-way game have improved since his first KHL season.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>I'm surprised some of the bigger market teams in cap crunches didn't drive up the price.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tormundgiantsbane</b></div><div>I think he could really make a big comeback on this Columbus team</div></div>

Agree. I wanted the Leafs to sign him to compete with Kerfoot at center (hoping he could make Kerfoot expendable).
I figured someone would offer at least $1,500,000 x 1-2 years (he's only 25 and he definitely still has middle six potential).

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AwesomeMatthews</b></div><div>He's back baby hopefully he won't disappoint again.</div></div>

I really do think he's gonna surprise some people.
He was only 18-22 during his NHL stint. Very few players are NHL ready at that age.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SKATES21</b></div><div>My tops for this guy is 30 points with about 10 goals. Cant see him getting the ice time, descent line mates and lacks the skill level to produce much more.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lord_Simek</b></div><div>I’d say that output is about right. I can see him possibly getting around 15 goals and 40 points depending on who he plays with.</div></div>

<strong>I'm going to apply some highly speculative math to project Grigorenko's statistics:</strong>

<strong>STEP 1</strong> = Set a baseline for his NHL statistics (selection = his last 2 NHL seasons)

NHL Baseline (2015-2017) = 50 points in 149 games = 0.34 points per game = 28 points per 82 games

<strong>STEP 2</strong> = Calculate his statistical improvement over 3 KHL seasons (assumption = his 1st year KHL stats equal his NHL performance)

First KHL Season (2017-2018) = 23 points in 45 games = 0.51 points per game
Last KHL Seasons (2018-2020) = 93 points in 102 games = 0.91 points per game

-- Points per game in KHL season 1 (2017-2018) = 0.51
-- Points per game in KHL seasons 2/3 (2018-2020) = 0.91
= Points per game improvement rate between periods = 1.79

<strong>STEP 3</strong> = Calculate NHL goals per game inflation rate since Grigorenko recorded his baseline NHL statistics:

-- NHL average goals per game (2015-2017) = 2.74
-- NHL average goals per game (2019-2020) = 3.02
= Goals per game inflation rate over period = 1.10

<strong>STEP 4</strong> = Apply KHL improvement rate + NHL goal inflation rate to Grigorenko's baseline NHL statistics:

-- 1.79 KHL improvement rate x 0.34 NHL points per game = 0.60 points per NHL game
-- 1.10 NHL goal inflation rate x 0.60 NHL points per game = 0.66 points per NHL game
-- 0.66 NHL points per game = 54 points per 82 NHL games

<strong>Projection = Grigorenko plays at a 54 point pace during the 2020-21 NHL season</strong>
Forum: NHL Signings11 févr. 2020 à 13 h 13