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doublem24

DoubleM24
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Penguins de Pittsburgh
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Forum: NHL Trades8 mars à 17 h 21
Sujet: (PIT/CAR) - Guentzel, Smith for Bunting, Koivunen, Ponomarev, Lucius, 2024 2nd (PHI), 2024 5th (CAR)
My opinion seems to be different from the consensus here.

My initial gut reaction when the trade was announced was Dubas hit a home run, and giving up a top-6 forward with term and half of your prospect pool for a rental you’re probably not going to re-sign is uncharacteristically irresponsible for Waddell. He’s always seemed to find a way to contend now while also building for the future – probably a smart strategy for a team in a non-traditional small market that probably wouldn’t have the patience for another long rebuild.

After sleeping on it, I still think Pittsburgh got a great return for a rental – more on why later – but I like it for Carolina too. They have a lot of players with contracts expiring this summer and next. (Only Aho, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Staal and Kochetkov are signed beyond that.) They should be able to keep some of them, but they’ll need to make some tough decisions on the others. This is probably the year for Waddell to break from his strategy and go all in. That said, even after this trade they still have all their draft picks this year (pending resolution of the conditions) and their prospect pool is smaller but doesn’t look totally depleted.

Was Guentzel the right guy for Carolina to go after? Obviously we won’t know until he plays for them, but I say yes. They’ve been wanting a goal scorer, and he was the best available, probably the only one likely to have a real impact on this already deep team. I was thinking they would go after Buchnevich because he has another year left on his contract, but for that reason he would have cost them more, and I think Guentzel is a better fit for what they need. The only negative is unless he really loves it in Carolina, I think he’ll be strictly a rental. If he wants a big 7-year contract, I don’t think Carolina will give that to somebody his age, though at least they’ll have a chance to see how well he fits in before they decide what they are willing to offer, instead of waiting to make a pitch for him as a UFA.

Now let’s look at it from Pittsburgh’s perspective. First, let’s remember that Jake Guentzel is a rental. Renting is attractive only because it costs less than buying (at least in the short term). When you trade a pending UFA, you never get back equal value, and to expect that, you would be unrealistic. People are talking like they expected Pittsburgh to get a guy who’s just as good as Jake Guentzel. That doesn't happen when you’re trading a rental.

A lot of people seem upset that they didn’t get a guaranteed first-round pick. This is a very narrow view based on us being conditioned to top tier rentals being traded for a package that almost always includes 1st-round pick, but what is that pick worth? Carolina’s 1st-round pick is #25 based on today’s standings. I think it’s too soon to judge anybody drafted in 2020 or later, so let’s look at the 5 years before that. The #25 picks those years were Jack Roslovic, Riley Tufte, Ryan Poehling, Dominik Bokk and Connor McMichael, so while some teams do find stars late in the first round (Jake Oettinger and Tage Thompson were #26 picks), you’re just as likely to get a guy who never establishes himself as an NHL player. Seems that there’s a good chance that at least one of these guys will become an NHL player, and if it’s Koivunen or Ponomarev, they’ll be there years before a 2024 1st-round pick. That’s worth a lot to Pittsburgh because they don’t want to wait until Crosby and Malkin are retired before the see any benefits from this trade. And by the way, there’s probably a 15-20% chance they’ll get that 1st-round pick that all of you think is so important anyway, in addition to these prospects.

Another thing that makes this a good trade for Pittsburgh is Michael Bunting. Don’t get me wrong – he’s no Jake Guentzel – but he’s proven he can play on the top line with elite players, so he could immediately slide into Guentzel’s spot. I would argue that even if none of the prospects and draft picks work out, it’s still a good trade for Pittsburgh because they got a replacement for Guentzel for two more years at a reasonable cap hit, and they can use the cap space they save by replacing Guentzel with Bunting to add in another area this summer.

Finally, I don’t know if there’s any chance of Guentzel going back to Pittsburgh, but if they have any designs on that, they kept that possibility open by trading him to a team that seems unlikely to sign him.
Forum: NHL Trades8 mars à 1 h 1
Sujet: (PIT/CAR) - Guentzel, Smith for Bunting, Koivunen, Ponomarev, Lucius, 2024 2nd (PHI), 2024 5th (CAR)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>doublem24</b></div><div>I think you're on to something there.

Carolina is always on the progressive side of roster management and it was my main concern in Pittsburgh working on a deal with them - Carolina was always going to win.

This feels like an Eric Tulsky deal with Don Waddell's name on it.</div></div>

Tulsky, Waddell, and Darren Yorke are basically equal partners. There's no such thing as Tulsky controlling the strings. From all accounts, Carolina's front office setup is that Waddell runs the salary cap and trade negotiations, Yorke runs pro and amateur scouting, and Tulsky runs analytics. They collaborate equally.

I don't think that the trade was nearly the fleece that some Pittsburgh fans think it is. Koivunen has second-line upside if he hits. Ponomaryov is very likely going to be either a 3rd line center or a very good 4th line center in the NHL. Lucius is magic beans. Bunting is flippable for a 1st or 2nd round level return in 2 seasons. They did very well themselves.
Forum: NHL Trades8 mars à 0 h 10
Sujet: (PIT/CAR) - Guentzel, Smith for Bunting, Koivunen, Ponomarev, Lucius, 2024 2nd (PHI), 2024 5th (CAR)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mvp13</b></div><div>Not getting a guaranteed 1st is absolutely terrible considering this alleged bidding war. Unless these prospects are the second coming of McJesus, I don't get it. Not an expert but I don't believe any of those are their best.</div></div>

My first two thoughts:

1. Dubas tried to pressure teams into better offers by putting an early deadline on a deal and it backfired, reducing the competition.
2. Are GMs finally regaining their sanity and pushing back against rental prices?

With so many teams going all in the last couple of seasons and multiple GMs being faced with serious pick/prospect shortages, maybe the analysts are getting through with data about just how effective deadline additions are and what acceptable risk is with respect to cost/benefit.

Bad negotiating, buyer's market, or paradigm shift?
Forum: NHL Trades6 août 2023 à 13 h 11
Sujet: (PIT/MTL/SJS) - Granlund, Rutta, Petry, DeSmith, Légaré, 2024 1st (PIT), 2025 2nd (PIT) for Pitlick, Hoffman for Karlsson, Hamaliuk, 2026 3rd (SJS)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensonfire</b></div><div>1. San Jose Sharks traded:

2023 Norris Trophy Winner Erik Karlsson at 10 million x 4
ECHL Prospect Dillon Hamaliuk
San Jose's 2026 3rd round pick

for

Mike Hoffman
Mikael Granlund
Jan Rutta
Pittsburgh's 2024 1st round pick with Top 10 Protection


This is awful for San Jose




2. Montreal traded:

Mike Hoffman
Rem Pitlick

for

Jeff Petry at 4.6875 million x 2
Casey DeSmith
AHL prospect Nathan Legare
Pittsburgh's 2025 2nd round pick


Montreal did good here.





3. Pittsburgh traded:

Mikael Granlund
Jeff Petry at 4.6875 million 2
Jan Rutta
Casey DeSmith
AHL Prospect Nathan Legare
Pittsburgh's 2024 1st round pick with Top 10 Protection
Pittsburgh's 2025 2nd round pick

for

2023 Norris Trophy Winner Erik Karlsson at 10 million x 4
Rem Pitlick
ECHL Prospect Dillon Hamaliuk
San Jose's 2026 3rd round pick


Pittsburgh did better than San Jose, but worse than Montreal.




In conclusion,

There is way too much value in this trade for Montreal and not enough for San Jose.

And Pittsburgh has about as much to lose in this trade as San Jose did when they acquired Karlsson 5 years ago.




The Montreal Canadiens win the trade.</div></div>

This is amazing work by San Jose.

People on a cap site should appreciate what Grier pulled off here.

He got a 1st round pick to dump one of the most difficult contracts in the league, and get almost entirely out of the final two years of it, when his team will be on the upswing. He should not have gotten a 1st round pick here.

Granlund and Rutta are also relatively cheap buyouts next year if they need further cap flexibility at the expense of pushing more cap to the third year.

You also have to frame all of the above with the high probability that Karlsson wanted out. Teams cannot hold on to players forever when that happens. For a rookie GM to pull off what he did is very impressive.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 juin 2023 à 7 h 47
Sujet: Granlund Buyout Bottom 6 Rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>doublem24</b></div><div>I agree that the D needs changes, but didn't want to go too off the wall with the adjustments. I actually think this forward group is realistic and hope these are the types of guys they bring in.

I think POJ can put a decent campaign together, if not I think he could be interchangeable with Ty Smith. Both players haven't really reached their breakout season with both having played less than 150 games.

I believe the best move is to trade Petry, but there are some barriers there. A NMC combined with an upside down contract really limit the market. If they combined him with an asset, I'd like to see him swapped for a left shot D at lower cost and term, that would give them flexibility to shop either Smith or POJ.

If they went that route, I think it'd be valuable for them to sign a depth RD, like Schenn, but it's really hard to say how things will shape up.

What do you think they should do on D?</div></div>

Yeah forward group is good here, no doubt. I think we need a puck moving D that helps with the transition game as a partner for Letang or the 2nd pair. Plus a grittier D for the 3rd pair, like Schenn. For the top 4, preferably someone younger than can be traded for a good return once the rebuild starts. Hanfin is one that comes to mind. It's tough because that market is so limited and it's tough to find elite D. Chris Tanev maybe could be an option, but wouldn't be ideal just because he'd not have value once rebuild starts. Will be interesting to see who comes available, but if I'm trading the 1st it's for a D and preferably the 2024 1st. It's annoying cause Chychrun would've been perfect for us.
Forum: NHL Signings7 juill. 2022 à 13 h 54