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dopplsan
Nah.
Membre depuis
4 sept. 2020
Équipe favorite
Blue Jackets de Columbus
Deuxième équipe favorite
Kraken de Seattle
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MENTIONS "J'AIME"
ÉQUIPES VIA FAUTEUIL-DG
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Hier à 22 h 1
Sujet:
Nose Nukes And Ice Cats Kinda Night
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockey91</b></div><div>Why severely down grade lundell for nothing else? Plus I’m sure boqvist could be had for a second. Keep loustarinen. Hes great on that third line.</div></div>
We'd prefer to have a 2nd, even if it's in 2025. If that works for Florida, definitely keep Luostarinen.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Hier à 22 h 44
Sujet:
Trying To Add More Bite
An AHL winger with one career point in the NHL in four years? Be still my heart. <em>That’s</em> how you build a championship.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Hier à 15 h 23
Sujet:
Merzlikins solution
This is definitely in line with what I'd expect the offseason to look like.
I remember having a lengthy discussion on another ACGM about the Elvis-Campbell swap, and the consensus from Oilers fans seemed to be that even if he's an improvement, the team is <em>so </em>cap-strapped that Elvis-for-Campbell doesn't help any more than just keeping Campbell. I don't think there's any other option for Edmonton other than a buyout; he just costs too much to dump (which are assets better spent elsewhere), and they can't take any cap back. Even ~$1M retained on Elvis wasn't more attractive than the much cheaper Skinner-Pickard or Skinner-Rodrigue tandem.
I'd fully support the idea, and: <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dopplsan</b></div><div>I still aim to give Campbell a try-out with CBJ. Greaves is waivers exempt next season, and I want all the time possible to let him develop - big fan of where he could head.<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/814626">what the hell do I know.</a></div></div> my thinking is exactly in line with this if Columbus pulls it off, but odds aren't good IMO.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Logicalicesports</b></div><div>The caps would give you Kuemper just one for one on Elvis. Both need a change of scenery</div></div>
If this happens after July 1st when Kuemper's signing bonus for the year is paid, that's a particularly attractive option. I'd do that one-for-one and hope for a rebound, just to move on from Elvis without significantly hampering the team/spending assets to do so. Ownership certainly would take the actual money savings, if Washington is okay with it.
As for the other trades: Bean and Boqvist are both similarly fine 7th D in my opinion, I wouldn't mind keeping one or the other around, but both is redundant. Bean has had the better season in terms of inflating his trade value, so it makes sense to move his rights, whatever that pick may be. I'd be fine with keeping Boqvist one more year and seeing if he can do the same next year.
CBJ trading up is fine, but we've also don't have a good history of doing so:
Carlsson (29th) for Dermott (34th) and Dzierkals (68th) in 2015, Aho (35th) Carlo (37th) and a bunch of other 2nd rounders were notably still available (Hintz, Cernak, Sprong, Greenway, Andersson, etc...yikes that draft hurts.
Lynch (56th) for Nilsson (62nd) and Cizikas (92nd) is also notable, in 2009, as well as Moore (21st) for Palmieri (26th) and Mat Clark (37th) in that same draft (double-yikes).
Mayorov (94th) for Smith (128th), Michael Neal (149th) and Jamie Benn (129th) is also particularly egregious.
Trading back has historically been better for CBJ, and is pretty continually proven to be the better option:
2014: Turgeon (63rd) for Elvis (76th) and a 5th the next year
2013: Jarry (44th) for Heatherington (50th) and Bjorkstrand (89th) as long as you think Bjorkstrand > Jarry
2019: Schwindt (81st) for Hjorth (104th) and Voronkov (114th)
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Hier à 11 h 34
Sujet:
24-25
Considering we're icing a lineup right now that includes Christiansen, Gaunce, Meyer, Angle, Pyyhtia, and Malatesta...I'd take this.
It's become clear Elvis needs to go, if he's not traded it's got to be a buyout. I don't think this team is wildly far off, though, there's just so many young/new pieces that need to gel.
Must-go:
Provorov, Elvis
Can stay if they're not regulars in the lineup:
Olivier, Boqvist, Bean
People I'd like to see back in a bottom-6 role:
Nylander, Texier
NHL musts:
Jiricek, Johnson, Chinakhov
Roster locks:
Gaudreau, Laine, Jenner, Fantilli, Sillinger, Marchenko, Voronkov, Kuraly, Werenski, Severson, Gudbranson, Tarasov
If everyone is healthy, that leaves holes at:
Goalie (starter or backup, probably a vet), 2LD, 3LD...and that's really it.
The wings may need a shakeup, but who of Laine, Gaudreau, Marchenko, Chinakhov, Jenner/Voronkov, Texier, Nylander, and Johnson do we ship out then?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Hier à 11 h 28
Sujet:
Off-season GM scenario - Necas
Pretty sure the Canes would rather have Marchenko than Chinakhov. Package as it stands doesn’t really help the Canes that much right now when it comes to replacing Necas’ offense. CC is a decent prospect, but I have my doubts on whether or not he will be any better than Jake Bean. Provorov at 2 and change would be decent for a 3LD role, but if I had to hazard a guess, that would be why the Canes picked up Ty Smith in the Guentzel trade.
The Canes have enough cap flexibility to sign Necas, as well as Jarvis and Guentzel, so it’s unlikely they move Necas without being blown away by an offer.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Hier à 10 h 27
Sujet:
Offseason
I'd take that for Columbus.
I'm wondering if Foegele is going to be a cap casualty, I could see a team offering him $4M+ in free agency. Same with DeBrusk, he might command $5M+. Both are great middle-6 targets/extensions for EDM if they sign for that, though.
I think Drai is going to get $13M+, like Matthews. McDavid and Draisaitl on matching $12.5M's would be ideal, but he may look to get max money since he's been on such a team-friendly deal this long.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 15 h 44
Sujet:
The reason why trading most draft picks is a big reason for our struggles
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MitchJr</b></div><div>All (or most) top teams have less than average prospect pools. That is the way the league has mandated the system works - late round picks << top 10 picks and pretty much all competitive teams gamble TDL to boost their chances. No use belly aching about it now 🤷🏻</div></div>
I am not belly aching. As with previous comments, I am stating that we overdid it. I agree with trades and our picks but too many were massive overpays ie Foligno. Some were good, I have grown to like the McCabe trade and the Muzzin trade I will defend as durability is hard to predict and Muzzin is still at a decent age. We just did it too much and should have focused on both upgrades and keeping certain picks.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 14 h 47
Sujet:
More ideas
Not sure Toronto needs a softer blueline, nor does Columbus need more mid-prospects, but sure. It frees up a spot for Jiricek.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 14 h 46
Sujet:
The reason why trading most draft picks is a big reason for our struggles
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Black61</b></div><div>Doesnt contending require winning atleast 2 rounds in the last 20 years?</div></div>
Playoff contending, then. So much of it is luck. Look how many years the Sharks were a playoff team and they never managed to get over the hump. The Leafs aren't without flaws, but they are very much a playoff contender.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 14 h 35
Sujet:
1 for 1
Farrell likely wouldn't see any NHL time with Columbus, which strengthens Cleveland, and this relieves the defensive logjam for the Jackets. Sounds fine to me.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 14 h 21
Sujet:
offseason
I like where you're head is.
I am definitely in favor of Kulak to the Jackets. In all the various Edmonton threads this year, he was pretty much always my first choice of cap coming back to Columbus. Definitely predicated on moving Provorov, though. Also it allows them to let Mateychuk marinate for a year in the AHL next season, which is a good thing.
Not a fan of Armia. Olivier brings something he doesn't, and he's a cap dump for Montreal they should be paying to dispatch.
Sturm for Texier feels lateral, and I'm not sure it benefits either team.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 13 h 49
Sujet:
offseason
No thanks on armia
No reason to trade for kulak unless it’s kulak and a first for provorov or for bean.
Jackets are set at center with Boone, kuraly, Voronkov, sillinger, and fantilli. They could also potentially add lindstrom in the draft. Only way they add a center is if it’s a proven top 6 center
Forum:
Armchair-GM
21 mars à 20 h 7
Sujet:
Solid Team
This is not Selling High on Nylander. No thanks.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
21 mars à 18 h 6
Sujet:
Solid Team
CBJ say no, we've got plenty of depth players/late picks. Might as well see what kind of magic Nylander has the rest of this year and into next season. Found money!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
21 mars à 10 h 57
Sujet:
Next October with Rossi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MNCountryClub</b></div><div>IMO, MN would accept that or a similar (possibly even less valued) package. I actually think Rossi will be shopped this summer, but that's total speculation so take it with a grain of salt. I'm not sure it will take a ransom type package - I could see Guerin looking for a "fair" deal.</div></div>
I could see Columbus considering trading their own pick for Rossi. But the Habs don't come close to being a middleman there.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
21 mars à 10 h 0
Sujet:
Next October with Rossi
I will probably be the kindest in telling you Columbus politely declines while wondering if you're okay.
You want Rossi, you trade your own top ten pick for him. Period. This offer to acquire someone else's is downright insulting.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
21 mars à 9 h 47
Sujet:
Next October with Rossi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ste_Catherine_Street</b></div><div>He's 23 years old and played over 100 NHL games. He's a former 3d round pick himself. Considering a 2d round pick has a 30% chance to be an NHL payer, your argument is nonsense.</div></div>
Just because he played games doesn't give him more value. His play dictates his value and his play is shown to be a 4-6 dman and nothing more, that means he isn't worth a 1st
Forum:
Armchair-GM
21 mars à 9 h 34
Sujet:
Next October with Rossi
Neither trade makes sense.
Columbus says no to a late pick and Harris for a top 10 pick really easily rejects
And then turning around and giving up all that for Rossi? If you win a trade like that with Columbus you don't waste it on that return
Forum:
Armchair-GM
21 mars à 10 h 56
Sujet:
chychrun
To much noise in the CBJ trade. I'd do Laine for Norris.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
21 mars à 10 h 5
Sujet:
Hurricanes over the top
This post is clearly a troll job.... but <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dopplsan</b></div><div>I’d probably take that for Laine. I think he can thrive, but it’s increasingly apparent it has to be in a specific situation - he ain’t the bus-driver CBJ thought they were getting. CAR feels like it could make it work for him.
Also, remember the cap is going to $87.5 next season. Not sure how much retention adds to the package, but a consideration.</div></div>
This entire post post was clearly a troll job.... but just to make sure we're on the same page, Carolina would want nothing to do with Laine much less give up actual assets to get him. Not knocking the player and his rough luck/situation, just acknowledging reality.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
20 mars à 18 h 35
Sujet:
help bedard to win stanley cup in future
Columbus accepts. Get rid of both picks if you want.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
20 mars à 15 h 35
Sujet:
Honest Thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>Edmonton's situation with Campbell is always going to come down to the salary cap.
Conventional wisdom suggests that unless there's a team willing to take Campbell on as the cap-recapture part of a deal, or to take him for cheap, the Oilers are aiming to buy Soup out in the summer. A few AGM's I've tinkered with for next year have seen Edmonton run a cheap backup to Skinner - I typically use Rodrigue here - because the equal-to-or-greater-than $3M bonus hit that Edmonton is getting from Connor Brown doesn't leave a lot of room for quality investment across the roster. Assuming Edmonton moves Kulak and buys Campbell out, and that the trio of Broberg, Holloway, and Rodrigue all sign for just their qualifying offers, the Oilers are looking at having a hair over $12M to find two top-six wingers, a middle-six winger, a #4C, and a #2RD.
Do I think Merzlikins has a really good chance to bounce back to form on a team that hasn't been as awful as Columbus has in recent memory? Absolutely. But it's coming at the loss of almost $3.5M in cap space (the difference between the sum cost of QO Rodrigue and Campbell's buyout and Elvis' cap hit) and could be the difference between Edmonton having to forsake improvements that are going to be absolutely crucial in other areas of the roster.
If Columbus does this with some sort of retention in exchange for an asset (how much for a first?) then it's much more amenable to where the Oilers are going to be this summer, but I still think that being able to use that $3.5M to add to the skating portion of the roster makes running a rookie backup tolerable, if not legitimately feasible.</div></div>
This is terrific insight on both Edmonton's cap situation and general roster needs. Just to spitball here, it seems like having Campbell on the roster is unsustainable past this season, so it's safe to assume 1) he's bought out, or 2) he's moved without salary retention. With 2, it's unlikely you're getting a team to take that on without taking back a bad asset or paying significantly (which, unlikely EDM bites), so really the only question is if EDM can get a "bad asset" back that's more tolerable than the buyout cap hit.
Moving Kulak and buying out Campbell nets, what, $5.5M in cap savings (2.75M for Kulak, 3.85-1.1=2.75M for Campbell). Maybe there's a two-birds situation with moving Kulak and Campbell as part of the same deal?
If that deal is with CBJ, EDM takes on Elvis at, say, $1M retained? For a 1st, you might be able to get $1.5-$2M retained over 3 seasons? You'd get $5.5M-4.4M = $1.1M in cap savings instead, you're probably still qualifying Rodrigue, so then it's $12M-4.4M = ~$7.6M in cap space for two top-6 wingers, a middle-sixer, a 4C, and a 2RD using that same math? If it doesn't work out, you're looking at a total buyout cost of $1.5M, $2.8M, $1.625M, and $1.625M (minus about 20% of each due to Columbus' retention). That's basically taking a chance on a different goalie, and delaying the buyout a year and lessening the total impact if it doesn't work out. But it's also clearly not enough to sign all 5 other players you're targeting, though I doubt $12M is enough to do that regardless.
I don't think there's a scenario where Columbus retains more than ~$1M, maybe $1.5M for a 1st, and there's not really a scenario where EDM can make it work without half-retention or more (75% with a 3rd team?), and that gets extremely pricey. So it's really either take a chance at upgrading the goaltender and sacrifices the chance at upgrading the top-6/depth/D; or roll with Skinner/Rodrigue, buy out Campbell, and use the space to target those other areas of need.
The more I look at the math...the more I'm on board with "just buy out Campbell". Columbus' best bet is to retain slightly on Elvis and send him to a team with the space, or just buy him out too. Or let him play and delay that decision...it's not like we need the cap space at the moment.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
20 mars à 11 h 28
Sujet:
Honest Thoughts
Edmonton's situation with Campbell is always going to come down to the salary cap.
Conventional wisdom suggests that unless there's a team willing to take Campbell on as the cap-recapture part of a deal, or to take him for cheap, the Oilers are aiming to buy Soup out in the summer. A few AGM's I've tinkered with for next year have seen Edmonton run a cheap backup to Skinner - I typically use Rodrigue here - because the equal-to-or-greater-than $3M bonus hit that Edmonton is getting from Connor Brown doesn't leave a lot of room for quality investment across the roster. Assuming Edmonton moves Kulak and buys Campbell out, and that the trio of Broberg, Holloway, and Rodrigue all sign for just their qualifying offers, the Oilers are looking at having a hair over $12M to find two top-six wingers, a middle-six winger, a #4C, and a #2RD.
Do I think Merzlikins has a really good chance to bounce back to form on a team that hasn't been as awful as Columbus has in recent memory? Absolutely. But it's coming at the loss of almost $3.5M in cap space (the difference between the sum cost of QO Rodrigue and Campbell's buyout and Elvis' cap hit) and could be the difference between Edmonton having to forsake improvements that are going to be absolutely crucial in other areas of the roster.
If Columbus does this with some sort of retention in exchange for an asset (how much for a first?) then it's much more amenable to where the Oilers are going to be this summer, but I still think that being able to use that $3.5M to add to the skating portion of the roster makes running a rookie backup tolerable, if not legitimately feasible.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
20 mars à 12 h 19
Sujet:
Honest Thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dopplsan</b></div><div>H/T caseyflyman for the GSAx/60.</div></div>
FWIW I got them from Moneypuck, they deserve the credit.
I like the idea of a swap, if for no other reason than neither is likely the long term starter, and Jack is reportedly a good-natured, awesome person; not to say Elvis isn't, but both players would welcome a swap and brining that kind of person into this locker room as the backup should only help. And I think he's better than the AHL-backup he's been this season, so it's fine to take that risk.
<em>However</em>, one-for-one is poor asset management given the situation IMO. EDM is in a full cap crunch, we're not. Perception is Campbell is washed/a cup dump, and Elvis is an upgrade. The Peeke trade showed us Columbus is able to move overpaid players with term without retention, too. I think the new GM could shake down Edmonton for at least a mid-round pick in a swap, or a B-prospect. Definitely not a 1st or 2nd, but something to take advantage of the situation.
Forum:
Fauteuil - DG
20 mars à 0 h 9
Sujet:
whats the price
I don't know what it is that has gotten Habs fans so gung-ho with the idea of somehow picking up Kent Johnson, but realistically he's not available for a price that makes sense for the Habs.
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