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UpsideDownQue

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11 août 2017
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Avalanche du Colorado
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Forum: Armchair-GMdim. à 17 h 7
Forum: Armchair-GM23 sept. à 12 h 11
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>It's less about the player and more about the retention. 3x$3M is a hugeee amount to retain and something we literally have never seen - there's only been 10 trades since retained salary became an option where a team retained $3M or more, and every single one of those was an expiring deal - no team has ever retained this high of a cap hit for more than the last 6 weeks of a season, and if Toronto is going to ask Boston to retain a literally unprecedented amount of cap hit (for a team in their division!) it's going to take an egregious overpay, in my opinion. It's not like the Bruins *need* to move Hall right now, regardless of whether or not they're going into a rebuild - something like 2/3 of their forward group is pending UFA this season, so they can go full tear-down without having to move out any cap.

If you're stripping the retention, though, then yeah, Hall isn't worth anywhere near this. He's a fine top 6 winger, he'd probably be an 85-90 point guy again on the Leafs, but I just can't see Boston eating that much cap for that long.</div></div>

I'm not saying its realistic (quite the opposite actually - I made a similar AGM sending Hall to COL with the description "this is pretty unrealistic" - <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/632428/1">https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/632428/1</a>), but there have been some large retention on trades over multiple years. Jeff Carter had around 2.6M retained for 1.5 years, so this is really just increasing the retention by 400k and adding 1 more year. Kessel was also 1.2M retained for 7 years, which is a bit different since its a lower $ spread over more years, but still

I only made the trade return big because of the retention, if were removing that then the value going back to Boston is probably cut in half
Forum: Armchair-GM23 sept. à 11 h 55
Forum: Armchair-GM22 sept. à 23 h 19
Forum: Armchair-GM22 sept. à 23 h 18
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Logan_Ollivier</b></div><div>Nurse isn't even good defensively though. Yost did an article about him. When McDavid's on the ice, he's elite, when he isn't he's below average. McDavid is the one who does it all</div></div>

If you are referring to this article: https://www.tsn.ca/travis-yost-darnell-nurse-looks-like-two-different-players-on-any-given-night-1.1602359

Its a bit outdated, looks like it was using data from 20-21. Nurse had pretty poor defensive numbers (yet still better than Rielly's) prior to 21-22 but actually looked solid defensively last season. Rielly has just been terrible defensively his whole career. Using 5v5 RelTM xGA/60 which essentially accounts for impacts of teammates (like you were saying with McDavid and Draisaitl) to attempt to isolate a single player's impact on xGA rates (this is a good explanation on how "relative to teammates" calculations work if youre interested: <a href="https://hockey-graphs.com/2018/02/21/revisiting-relative-shot-metrics-part-1/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://hockey-graphs.com/2018/02/21/revisiting-relative-shot-metrics-part-1/</a>), Nurse was even while Rielly was at +0.29 xGA/60 (positive is a bad thing in this context - more goals against). Going by RelTM xGF/60 and RelTM xGA/60, all of Rielly's offensive impacts on xG at 5v5 are negated by even worse defensive play

Heres a comparison of their last 4 seasons. I guess we will see next year if Nurse's defensive turnaround is here to stay or if it was just a flash in the pan

<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/WmBpXWuh.png" alt="WmBpXWuh.png">
Forum: Armchair-GM22 sept. à 22 h 51
Forum: Armchair-GM22 sept. à 18 h 8
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