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SlickWilly
Membre depuis
7 nov. 2017
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Blackhawks de Chicago
Messages dans les forums
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MESSAGES
SUJETS
MENTIONS "J'AIME"
ÉQUIPES VIA FAUTEUIL-DG
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 13 h 23
Sujet:
A Little Bit of This and a Little Bit of That
I wouldnt waste a contract slot on Gorman or Kelley. Maybe they get ATOs somewhere. But not NHL contracts
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 12 h 3
Sujet:
Who says no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Snowhawk18</b></div><div>The Hawks say no… doesn’t matter if the pick is first or second overall.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>Whether that pick is 1st overall or not, CHI declines.</div></div>
I think at 2 the Hawks should take this. The way slaf is trending right now... that's likely the ceiling for Lindstrom if everything pans out well. Demidov is a different type of player but you have to be a little concerned with his disinterest in playing the defensive zone. If you want to take a Levshunov at 2, then I'd understand. Slafkovsky would be the absolute perfect complement to Bedard on the wing. I just think with the selection of guys you're drafting here at 2-4, if they turn out the way Slaf looks to be trending, thats a win
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 10 h 53
Sujet:
Who says no
If pick is 1st OA, Hawks say no. If pick is not 1st OA, Habs say no
Forum:
Armchair-GM
lun. à 17 h 10
Sujet:
How much to move up 20 spots
I dont think Barron is enough to move up from the mid 20s to the mid teens, and I certainly dont think Harris + a late 2nd is enough to move up from the mid teens to the 5-6 range
Forum:
Armchair-GM
lun. à 17 h 9
Sujet:
Blackhawks- Sens Blockbuster Trade
The Hawks have so many unproven pieces, it would be very unwise to attempt to turn the corner on the rebuild. If Nazar and Moore dont live up to expectations like Reichel did, then you've just wasted all of Bedard's RFA contract clock
Forum:
Armchair-GM
dim. à 20 h 18
Sujet:
Moving up to 1st overall
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JeffGorton</b></div><div>Those pick value charts always take the average value of the pick. No context between how strong a draft is. Reality is, the difference between Celebrini and Parekh for example is much smaller than traditional difference between 1st overall and 5th. These charts also dont take into consideration the potential of a player during the draft discussions. They just take the data the how many NHL players come from this pick and create a value for it. In you draft in the top 10, you arent drafting for just a bog standard NHL player, you are drafting who you believe will be the best NHL player and for many teams, based on the positions of need. Those values arent taken into consideration when calculating a picks value.
An example of the pick chart not working is the Sharks making a trade with the Yotes in 2022. The trade was 27, 34,and 45 for 11. Sharks ended up getting essentially a late 2nd in extra value but got smoked in the trade because they couldve had Denton Mateychuk, Rutger McGroarty or Jonathan Lekkerimaki with that pick instead of the bums they drafted. The pick chart would say the Sharks won that trade. Everyone else says they lost it very badly.
This trade i proposed gives the sharks 4 things
a top 5 pick to draft a forward of slightly lesser value (Catton over Celebrini isnt that large of a gap) or a Dman like Parekh
a #4/#5 D man right now (Xhekaj has been on the 2nd pair for months now and is actually succeeding there with Savard)
A former 1st rounder with NHL experience in Barron
And a late 1st the next year
The Sharks have 1 future D man on their roster in Shakir Mukhamadullin. Theyll be garbage next year as well giving them another top 5 pick. (There is 1 Dman projected to go top 10 next year and the drop off for Dmen after Hensler is crazy).
Celebrini isnt a franchise changing player. Hes amazing but the gap in potential between him and Parekh is much smaller than then gap between a top 5 forward in 2025 and a Dman in 2025. Argubaly, there are 2 players just as good as him in Hagens and Martone. Add in Misa, Frondell, McQueen and Ryabkin, youve got 6 elite forwards</div></div>
I think people are underselling Celebrini because he wasnt sold as a franchise guy before the season began. His production in college this year rivals that of Fantilli's last year on a team that doesn't have anywhere near the talent that Michigan had last year, all while being 8 months younger. Is he a Bedard? No. But I think if Fantilli and him were in the same draft class, their draft stocks would be almost identical, with Fantilli probably having an edge due to size. But, I will agree that the top 2-5 is pretty close together at this point. In terms of overall value, I think the package is there. But, I'm always a believer in the saying that whoever gets the best player in the deal wins the trade, and the conditions around the Flames pick make it a little bit more of a risk than I would like to take if I was trading out of 1OA.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
dim. à 16 h 27
Sujet:
If Hawks fall in draft lottery
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GuentzelvaniaUSA</b></div><div>Pittsburgh can retain and get way way more for that at the deadline.
They could jest get more for that from anyone.</div></div>
yeah now that guentzel is gone, and assuming he's not coming back and the Pens arent going to be big spenders in FA, they dont really need to shed cap space.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
dim. à 16 h 25
Sujet:
Poll Is Kaapo worth a top 10 pick yes or no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stadel</b></div><div>for 2025 probably not worth it. But interestingly I think if you asked the question as "who is more likely to breakout or say hit 60 pts, Kakko or the guy available at 10th in 2024" that might be a harder answer than ppl realize.
The average 10th overall pick isnt actually all that good, and a lot of people have discussed how this years class might be worse than average. So his trade value probably doesnt warrant it simply because I think you could get more for 10th overall this year than Kakko, but incidentally I might bet on Kakko getting to top six quality more than the guy at 10.</div></div>
I'm not the biggest fan of the argument "the average 10th overall pick isnt actually that good" when calling draft slot value. If you wanna use it to say that the draft is a total crapshoot, then I'll agree with that. But you can constantly find guys of high value in the teens, just because whoever picks at 10 makes a mistake doesnt mean that the 10th overall pick isnt valuable.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
dim. à 16 h 22
Sujet:
Moving up to 1st overall
I guess it really depends on what's gonna happen with that Calgary pick. My favorite pick value tool is puckpedia, and according to them, a fair trade up from 5 to 1 would be something like
SJ Sharks receive : 2024 5th overall, 2024 6th overall, 2024 58th overall
MTL receives : 2024 1st overall
If you think whoever holds the 6th overall pick would accept Barron, Xhekaj squared, and calgary's 2025 1st rounder for it, then its probably of fair value. I think the Sharks in this specific instance would probably prefer more quality over quantity, especially if youre trading the 1st overall pick
Forum:
Armchair-GM
sam. à 16 h 55
Sujet:
Canadiens
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Billy316</b></div><div>He's Luke Richardson's guy
He unlocked his game and helped him transition to a Leadership Role.
After that Kovy became Consistent and his game reminds me a lot of Edmundson back in the 2016 STL right up until his 2021 SCF run with MTL
He's someone who could become more especially under Luke Richardson</div></div>
Ah, thanks for the context
Forum:
Armchair-GM
sam. à 16 h 40
Sujet:
Canadiens
That's a little random but the Hawks probably should take that
Forum:
Armchair-GM
sam. à 13 h 23
Sujet:
Two years out
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>Not a McQueen fan? I'll need to take a closer look. I hear you on physicality in juniors translating to NHL ability. Some kids just grow up faster than others. I'm sure your not a Cayden Lindstrom fan then either?</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>I don't think this opinion is going to age well. But we shall see. I think if McQueen falls in the draft order, it will be because others rise, and not because of his own ability. He is going to be an exceptional top 6 power forward, imo.
Passing on Lindstrom is going going to be regretted by a lot of teams if he doesn't go in the top 5. haha
I disagree. I think there is a ton of potential outside of the top 10, and even into the 2nd round. Iginla, Misa, Chernyshov, Artamonov, Sennecke, Boisvert, Stiga, Brunicke, Badinka, Freij, Hutson, Masse, Basha, Parascak, Kiviharju, Jiricek, I could go on and on. There are so many guys with top of the lineup potential in there.
If we are comparing to last year, yeah, it's definitely "weaker." But last year was an abnormally deep draft, that we probably won't see again for a while. On average, this is a very good draft without any steep dropoffs, aside from after Celebrini and then another somewhere in the mid 2nd to early 3rd, probably. Though, I think the drop off after Celebrini has more to do with readiness than what it will look like with the benefit of hindsight in a few years.</div></div>
I am not as high on Lindstrom as others (would definitely prefer Demidov or Levshunov) but he's a different case than what I outlined. At this time last year, Lindstrom wasn't very noticed by many and definitely wasnt regarded as an elite prospect. February birthday, so not just better than others due to age and earlier development. His game isn't entirely built around his size, as he has good speed and good puck skills. McQueen's draft profile about his speed and puck skills come with the qualifiers *for his size* which never really excites me, and its built on the hope that it will continue to improve. Not to knock the kid or say that he's gonna bust or anything. There's a reason I don't work as a scout! Just trends i've noticed when scouting prospects a year out
Forum:
Armchair-GM
sam. à 10 h 9
Sujet:
Two years out
I'm never really a fan of the tall october birthday prospects who's entire profile relies around physicality a year out. They never end up staying in the top 10 come draft year. So not a big fan of McQueen with a top 10 pick. At this point I would rather bet on the skill guys to grow another inch or two, like McKinney. Yoinking Ehlers would be sick though
Forum:
Armchair-GM
19 mars à 23 h 16
Sujet:
How Far Does This Team Go
im inclined to believe they go pretty far
Forum:
Armchair-GM
19 mars à 18 h 45
Sujet:
If only if
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>I gotta disagree. I know it is hard to trade a player who is having success, but you don't get a good package for players who aren't playing well. And, let's face it, Bedard's future success does not hinge on having Kurashev on his wing, they will have no problem finding guys for Bedsy to play with. Although, I would probably swap those players with some that CHI would ACTUALLY have interest in, because I don't see KD having any interest in Harris or Ylonen.</div></div>
Its not necessarily about Kurashev's value, or his future in Chicago. But if we enter next season with the expected lineup (assuming we dont win the lottery) of Bedard, Taylor Hall, AA, Lukas Reichel who MAYBE starts producing again, and Dickinson, with Nazar and Moore not in the NHL yet, Bedard is inevitably going to regress without a consistent linemate that he has chemistry with. And that to me is worth more than a late first. If you plan on bringing Nazar into the NHL consistently next year and Reichel is going to be a consistent producer, or you plan on signing someone whos gonna enhance Bedard's play so he doesnt have to do it all himself, then go for it. But as it stands right now, I dont know that Im a fan of making the current team worse.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
19 mars à 18 h 9
Sujet:
Bye Bye Macklin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LordStanlersCup</b></div><div>The separation of 0.316%(CHI) and 0.291%(SJS) is not that big that is like 2 wins difference. Ultimately it doesnt really matter though because the last place team still only has around a 25% chance of getting the 1st OA pick.</div></div>
Its not that big of separation for normal teams, but I dont even know if San Jose wins 2 more games this season at this point! But you are right. Gotta rely on the lottery balls either way
Forum:
Armchair-GM
19 mars à 10 h 36
Sujet:
If only if
Both teams should say no. Hawks probably dont wanna trade Kurashev when he will still be one of 3 skill players on the team next year. I also don't think the Habs should trade Volokhin quite yet... Fowler is having himself a year, but college doesnt always serve as the best indicator for goalies and Volokhin's lookin real nice in russia
Forum:
Armchair-GM
18 mars à 15 h 31
Sujet:
Sennies Retool Redditor Disapproved Edition
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hawksguy81</b></div><div>JBD will be 24 in June. Not exactly a prospect anymore.</div></div>
forsling didnt figure it out until he was 25 and on his 4th org. defensemen are weird sometimes. i believe in the tools but not for a 3rd
Forum:
Armchair-GM
18 mars à 13 h 41
Sujet:
Sennies Retool Redditor Disapproved Edition
JBD is intriguing and we could use some RD prospects but probably not for an early 3rd
Forum:
Armchair-GM
17 mars à 23 h 2
Sujet:
Surround Bedard and Team is taking Form
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>batman</b></div><div>For real. Idk why but you might say Biased but i feel like MTL is going to end up with #1</div></div>
Nah. Callin it now its gonna be AZ
Forum:
Armchair-GM
17 mars à 23 h 1
Sujet:
Surround Bedard and Team is taking Form
Plan for life without Celebrini, and you won't be disappointed. Highly doubtful we pass the Sharks back at this point. We win a few too many games and the Ducks will pass us into 2nd. Demidov and Levshunov are the realistic outcome at this point
Forum:
Armchair-GM
15 mars à 23 h 23
Sujet:
Build for Bedard
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kyle_Davidson</b></div><div>Mr Jco5ta5,
I am writing to inform you that you are currently using my profile picture without my consent. This unauthorized use infringes upon my rights and violates my privacy. I demand that you immediately cease and desist from using my image in any manner.
You have been using my profile picture on “Capfriendly” This action constitutes a violation of my intellectual property rights and is unacceptable.
Failure to comply with this cease and desist letter will result in legal action. I reserve the right to pursue remedies available under the law, including seeking damages and injunctive relief.
Immediate Action Required: I demand that you remove my profile picture from your account or any other platform where it is being used. You must cease using my image immediately.
Please respond to this letter within 24 hours to confirm that you have taken the necessary steps to comply with my request. Failure to respond or continued use of my profile picture will leave me no choice but to pursue legal action.
This letter serves as formal notice of your infringement. I trust that you will respect my rights and comply with this request promptly.
Sincerely,
The Fake Kyle Davidson</div></div>
To be fair its a different facial expression
Forum:
Armchair-GM
15 mars à 19 h 24
Sujet:
Build for Bedard
Signing the guy that broke Bedards jaw like the Oilers traded for the guy that broke McDavid's collarbone? How poetic.
In all seriousness, I agree that too much probably doesnt happen this offseason. The reilly smith pickup is interesting, similar to the Hall trade, although im not sure what his value is or if they really need to dump him now that theyve traded away guentzel. If we're not giving Nazar top 6 minutes he should be in the AHL.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
14 mars à 17 h 1
Sujet:
If the Hawks would have sold EVERYTHING
Yeah I mean, the *goal* for this season wasnt to bottom out again. The goal for this season was to be bottom 5 with Bedard developing. Trading the supporting cast, especially if youre not getting much of a return, doesnt really help accomplish that goal
Forum:
Armchair-GM
13 mars à 23 h 55
Sujet:
Who says no
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caerii</b></div><div>"Not the greatest" is really sugarcoating it. He's terrible defensively. Doesn't change anything about what he's done offensively, or his potential, but let's be for real here.</div></div>
He is not terrible defensively. He loses his man quite a bit on the rush, but once set up in the zone, he's fine in the system that Richardson plays. He has created several goals this season by keeping an active stick in the neutral zone. He is miles ahead of where he was advertised in juniors
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