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Reason

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Forum: Armchair-GM30 janv. à 1 h 19
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sens65</b></div><div>But that's where you're wrong though. Yes, the Sens suck right now but they want to add more veterans, not get rid of one of the only good veterans they have. Plus, Giroux loves living in Ottawa (his hometown) and this is basically a Tavares pajamas situation so there's no way in hell he'd ever be traded.

And EVEN if they ever did put him on the market the asking price would be a blue chip prospect, which I highly doubt you would be willing to give up for him. I'm talking a Tom Willander type prospect.</div></div>

Oh, I don't think Giroux will be traded to Vancouver. What I said was it makes sense for Ottawa to trade Giroux. Your offense is stacked and Ottawa needs to solve their defense &amp; goaltending more than acquiring prospects. Giroux is the biggest piece you have.

In a bubble, I'd agree that a blue-chip prospect is a fair asking price for Giroux, however, I think moving him for a Top-4 RHD or a permanent solution in net would solve most of your teams' problems (Goals Against). Moving Giroux to a team in need of a Top-6 center for draft capital that the Senators can flip for a Top-4 or a starting Goalie makes a lot more sense. Ottawa has had 4 or more goals scored against them 24 times this season, even the highest-scoring team (COL, 3.95 GF/GP) in the league can't beat that goals-against rate. Yeah, I get that Giroux is a good player, but he has a limited amount of time left whereas your core is still all in their early 20s. No point in Giroux playing on a bottom-5 team in need of serious upgrades.

Giroux for a Top-4 defender or a solution in net would be the best places to start.
Forum: Armchair-GM31 déc. 2023 à 18 h 57
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Reason</b></div><div>Your opinion is certainly valid and you make some good points but I disagree with some of them.

Kunin was traded after having a 13 goal 22 point season with his career highest point total being 31 and goals being 15. Dube had 45 points last season and has had back to back 18 goal seasons. Although they may be comparable to a degree, I think Dube is the more valuable of the two. When it comes to cost, Ratty may be Vancouver's top rated center prospect but that says more about Vancouver's lack of center prospect depth than it does Raty's potential. Raty floor is an AHL player, his ceiling is a decent two way 3rd line player, and that is what Dube already is. So if Raty hits his celling you are getting a player around Dube's level. The 3rd is essentially paid incase as insurance as you are already getting a known value asset and Raty may not reach his ceiling, the 4th is for the retention. I feel like that's a pretty even value deal.

See I don't see Murphy as being on a risky contract at all, for a top 4 RD 4.4M is a bargain. I'm not saying Murphy is a top pairing guy but he's certainly a top 4, and his underlying numbers would certainly be better if he wasn't playing for Chicago. I think his style would be a good fit with Hughes and the difference in $ between him and Boeser would open up space for Vancouver to resign Bear. Essentially this trade allows Vancouver to trade from an area of relative strength to add a top 4 RD and a fringe top 4 RD, that is a significant boost for a team that currently has a Hronek, a bottom pair RD (Myers) and a 7th D in Friedman.
Out of curiosity, when was this one bad season for Boeser? The guy has fallen between 45-55 points in every single season he has played. Injuries aside (which are a concern), he has paced himself as a 65 point player over his career. I know his defensive game was poorer last season but overall his offensive numbers have been fairly consistent. His offensive numbers aren't bad but by adding all the additions here and substracting the players going out, I still think this team is far better after these moves.</div></div>

I've worked up comps for Dube, keep in mind these were traded as RFA's vs in-season with retention to be fair so that for sure would speak to increasing Dube's value.

I went back a while and we've got Burakovsky. I think he's a worse comparable than Kunin. Burakosky is 6'3", Kunin is 6'0" and Dube is 5'11". Dube is in the under sized scoring winger with questionable defence and Burakosky was large fast winger with questionable defence. I think Burakosky sets a pretty good ceiling for value here, which was a 2nd, 3rd and a sweetner. So the range is a 3rd (plus sweetener) to 2nd, and 3rd (plus a sweetener).
For interest here was the last 3 years of performance of each player on per game basis leading up to the trade and Dube's last 3 years
Dube Kunin Burakosky
g/g a/g g/g a/g g/g a/g
.22 .53 .24 .14 .19 .36
.23 .18 .26 .24 .21 .23
.22 .13 .18 .20 .16 .17

Also keep in mind Kunin was 2 year youngers during those seasons. So Idk man the more I look at it, the more Kunin looks like a great comp, but it will depend on how Dube does this year I guess? Also advance stats put Dube's defence as very bad to be clear.

I agree Raty's value isn't crazy, that's why I put it a second, which I think is fair at this point. The point about him being the top center prospect wasn't to suggest he was worth more, just more why the Canucks really shouldn't trade him.

I think in season let's say no retention 3rd and 4th with another 4th with retention.

Last season was the season I was talking about because I think the greater value of Boeser is his defensive play plus his scoring. Like I said I see him as Toffoli, who would be the comp. Personally, I'd say keep Boeser and find a way to trade Garland for the RD maybe tap 4th and 3rd you're using the Dube trade. Maybe target Jensen or TVR who I think are both better choices and there seems to be interest from Washington for a trade like that (I prefer TVR for the lower hit).

If you can get the Hayton trade done at that cost I think it's probably a smart move, but I really hate losing Hoglander.