SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

Octopus_Guy

Membre depuis
3 juill. 2019
Équipe favorite
Red Wings de Detroit
Messages dans les forums
239
Messages par jour
0.1
Forum: Armchair-GMlun. à 14 h 19
Sujet: Realistic I think WITH JUSTIFICATIONS I hate being a fan of this team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Octopus_Guy</b></div><div>It's hard to compare Raymond with Seider because they play different positions but I'd say they are about even, both first liners. I want to lock them both up for 8 years. In years 6-8 of those contracts the salary cap will be higher and their cap hits will look like a good deal by then. If either one gets a bridge deal now, they are going to get PAID later.

I think those are pretty fair deals for Kane &amp; Ghost if they want to stay. The AAV on Ghost is high but I'd rather have that on a 3 year deal instead of less money for more term since he's pushing 30.</div></div>

I'm with you on that, I just wish Mo would play like the "franchise" player that he's been touted to be. So many iq lapses, but that gets better with age. The only reason I'm giving him a little less money for little less time. I agree with you on Ghost but I don't think he'd come back for anything less. 50-something points for a d-man is worthy of a bit of a pay raise, but like I said, cannot overpay for him. We have other guys that can run a PP
Forum: Armchair-GM4 avr. à 13 h 9
Sujet: wings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>Anyone willing to waste $2.5M on Perron needs their head checked.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Octopus_Guy</b></div><div>You'll be more mad when you find out what he's making this year. He's getting old &amp; regressing a bit but he's a 0.55 point per game player this season. He's got grit to his game &amp; was the one guy who got fed up that the Wings captain keeps getting targeted.

The crosscheck to the head of the wrong guy was stupid but at least he tried to stand up for the best player on the team. If the Wings don't give him 2.5 another team will.</div></div>

Bruh acting like 2.5m is a lot of money for a half ppg player that can forecheck, applies grit, veteran leadership on and off the ice, protects the puck better than most NHLers and only on a 1yr deal
Forum: Armchair-GM15 mars à 14 h 56
Forum: Armchair-GM13 mars à 11 h 55
Sujet: Lucas Raymond is minus 19
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>No it really is pointless to many factors that a single player has no control over which I listed some in my first post.

Read this <a href="https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/11/01/behind-the-numbers-why-plusminus-is-the-worst-statistic-in-hockey-and-should-be-abolished/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Behind the Numbers: Why Plus/Minus is the worst statistic in hockey and should be abolished.</a>

Since people barely click links, so I've copied and pasted part of it below. Now this was written by Garret Hohl and posted on The Hockey Graphs website. While I do agree with this is his work and by no means am I trying to take credit for his work.

This is sometimes news to those that use plus/minus as a stat. The number is not exclusive to 5v5, or even strength. The plus/minus statistic includes all even strength goals, all goals with either goaltender pulled (as hockey views goalie pulled as even strength), and short handed goals.

This causes some very odd skewing in plus/minus to particular player types.

Including only shorthanded goals means that the power play can only hurt a skater’s rating (or stay even). It also means that a penalty killer can only improve their rating with tallies in the plus column (or stay even). The longer they spend in those situations, the greater the likely skew, regardless of how effective they are in their respective special teams deployment.

The skew is increased further by empty nets. Pulling the goalie is a desperation tactic, that increases the chance of scoring while also increasing the chance of a goal against even more.

This means that players who typically play with the lead and the opposition’s goaltender pulled are more likely to garner pluses than minuses over the long run. Players who are playing from behind and have their own goalie pulled are the opposite.

There is a tendency for penalty killers to play in the lead situation, and power play unit skaters to go out with the trailing situation, so these two factors in general skew in the same direction for skaters.

A handful of short handed and empty net goals may not seem like much, until you realize that the standard deviation in even strength goal differential is only about nine goals.

There is no science or evidence-backed reasoning to the meaningfulness of using some goals and not others. It is simply because it seemed right to the first person who made the rules for the number, and then tradition has kept it that way.

One example I like to use is Mark Stuart of the Winnipeg Jets for the 2014-2015 season:

Mark Stuart carried the Jets’ team-worst goal differential of the 13 defenders when looking at even strength (-3), power play (+0), and penalty kill (-19). He ended the season with the 6th-best plus/minus, with a +5 rating.

Stuart logged huge minutes on the penalty kill and essentially none on the power play. This, plus empty net goals, skewed his plus/minus up despite being the worst differential player in essentially all the situations.</div></div>

This post has more words than the OP does brain cells.