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Miles_Togo

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11 juill. 2020
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GM12 mars 2021 à 18 h 37
Sujet: A trade that pushes this team over the edge
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>So what you are saying is you'd rather have Sandin and Lili instead of Muzzin and Brodie, and you want Dermott in the top 4 and Holl on the top pairing?
Dermott could be on the top 4, but if you want to be a contending team it's good to have depth and a good top 4. Dermott is probably going to Seattle, which is too bad, but someone has to go to Seattle, so it's fine. Justin Holl, as good as he is, is not a top pairing defensemen. He's a good 2nd pairing guy, but not top pair.</div></div>

What I am saying is that I want the team to actually properly develop D. Something they have never done and continue to do poorly. It has nothing to do with wanting players in positions they are not ready for. It is about getting players ready for positions. Starting 3 years ago Leafs fans raved about how Dermott was going to be this great top-4 D and how Toronto was doing this amazing job developing him. Throughout that same time they threw temper tantrums every time I said the truth - which is that with the exception of his rookie season the Leafs have done an absolutely dreadful job of developing him and that he would not develop into a top-4 D until they started doing the right things (getting him an appropriate mentor partner, challenging him up the lineup when times are calm, getting him special teams time) which they never did. Instead they left him as the most sheltered third pairing D in the NHL, without a proper mentor, and then when a bunch of injuries hit they would throw him, completely unprepared, up the lineup in a hectic situation where he was guaranteed to fail. Properly developed Dermott might have been the top-4 RD the team had been looking for. The kind of D scouts thought he coudl become - but hasn't and won't in Toronto. Maybe they wouldn't have needed to sign someone like Brodie for a 5M cap hit until he is 34.

The same thing - but even worse has happened with Sandin and Liljegren. Back in 2015 Dubas outlined his philosophy of development. He has done - with Sandin and Liljegren - exactly what he said he would never do because it was too harmful, and has not done the things he said the team would do. Both of them have essentially maxed out their development in the AHL. While getting ice time is better than getting none, Liljegren will essentially not develop further in the AHL. He needs to either take the next step or not. In order to successfully do so the team needs to make a spot for him the NHL in a way where he most likely be successful. The Leafs not only will not make a spot, but when he has played games in the NHL it was with the most inappropriate partner he could have possibly played with. Guaranteed to fail. No surprise with the Leafs. Sandin, will not only probably not develop any further in the AHL, but as a player whose main asset is his IQ, playing with and against lower IQ players (as the AHL is at a lower level of competition this year than it has been in the past) will probably make his transition to the NHL less likely to succeed. When they did play him in the NHL they mainly played him with completely inappropriate partners.

It was an is unlikely that the Leafs will bring both of them into the lineup full-time the same season. What they should have done was brought Sandin into the NHL full-time last year with an appropriate partner and then Liljegren into the NHL this year with an appropriate partner. As they didn't do that, bringing Sandin into the NHL full-time this year with an appropriate partner and then Liljegren next year with an appropriate partner would have still been better than what they have done.

There is little chance now that they will them both into the NHL next year full-time (the team will be even more in "win-now" mode then after all). Their careers and potential and being wasted away by an irresponsible team.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>And Sandin and Liligren are good bottom pairing guys, but Toronto got Bogosian because they wanted an even better bottom pairing. This is about having an above average defense core and not an average one. The leafs wanted a d core fit for an elite team. Sandin and Lili are not nhl ready on an elite team at 21 and 22, and why did they need to be? They have plently of years ahead of them. They will likely turn into the defensemen everyone thought they would be. You are way too impatient.</div>

Either properly develop players or trade them while they still have value. Lots of teams choose to trade and sign players instead of developing. If the Leafs' want to go that route, I completely support them in doing so, but when you do that, you trade your prospects when their value is high. Sandin and Liljegren are not young - people who think that simply have no idea what the development curve is for first round draft pick Ds who don't go to college - and these are players who have been playing pro years - not stuck in the lower comp junior leagues when they were 18/19. Furthermore the team knows that their development in the A is essentially maxed out - which is why Liljegren was on the taxi squad for the last 10+ days instead of "developing" in the A. This had been confirmed earlier when the media asked Sandin what the team wanted him to work on developing in the AHL on the day he was sent down, and Sandin said they just want me to get lots of ice time. You can be sure that Sandin and Liljegren are running out of patience. And they should be. It is their careers and long-term future that the Leafs are ignoring.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 mars 2021 à 18 h 11
Sujet: A trade that pushes this team over the edge
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>I'm rooting for Travis Dermott to be the Shea Theodore of the Seattle Kraken.

And you must know how much I hate to be reminded of that.</div></div>

If Dermott gets away from Toronto soon enough he could probably develop into a top-4 D. But because Dermott is already 24 and the Leafs' have spent more than 3 years training him to be nothing more than an extremely sheltered third pairing D, it will be hard for him to break out of that. I like him though, and I think that most teams would take a chance on him.

However, Theodore was 21 and ran into the problem in Anaheim of a young Lindholm and Fowler ahead of him. He was also exempt from the expansion draft and Anaheim traded him to expansion draft considerations. So the similar trade would be 21-year-old blocked on the left side Sandin going to Seattle for expansion considerations. But that won't happen - and Sandin's career will suffer from the lack of opportunities and being on a team that has no interest in properly developing him.
Forum: NHL Trades12 mars 2021 à 18 h 2
Sujet: (TOR/CBJ) - Lehtonen for Vehvilainen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>Tell that to <a href="/users/Miles_Togo" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Miles_Togo</a> . He's convinced they suck at developing prospects.</div></div>

Hey remember when I said that this pure idiotic fantasy that every single other Leafs fan on here had that a bunch of NHL ready D would be super happy to not play would
in reality cause problems and that at least one D would be demanding a trade before the trade deadline?

As always I was completely right and as always the people who spend all of their time in a fantasy land (like you) were completely wrong.

This was a stupid signing, by an organization that fails to use the most basic common sense, fails to properly evaluate where players fit together, and promises players roster spots when they shouldn't.

And what did they get for this dumb signing?

A player who demanded out after 9 games and after having been promised a spot which the team failed to come through on and it will have damaged their Euro free agent pipeline going forward (which might actually save this management team from itself).

A player who did not deserve to be on the roster blocked Sandin and Liljegren from being able to compete for the #7 spot or from getting into games despite both of them having essentially maxed out their development in the AHL. Definitely damaging the relationship Sandin and possibly damaging the relationship with Liljegren too.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 mars 2021 à 14 h 59
Sujet: A trade that pushes this team over the edge
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>Please stop with this "the leafs suck at developing their prospects" nonsense. He hasn't played because the leafs are a contending team and have good defense depth, leaving no room for Liljgren. He's going to be in the bottom 6 next year when Dermott and Bogosian or Lehtonen are gone.</div></div>

You are free to continue your cult-like beliefs about the Leafs' developing program - but no one outside of that cult will believe it.

The Leafs spent the previous three years with perhaps the worst right side in the league and had no interest in giving a Lilly a shot. Then, despite having two NHL-ready D in the AHL the team had so little faith in their ability to bring either into the lineup that they went out and signed 3 free agent Ds (Brodie, Bogo and Lehtonen) and openly spoke about how they were not even giving either Lilly or Sandin the opportunity to compete for a spot during camp. The team chose to do that - and they chose to do that because they completely suck at developing D prospects and instead rely on every other team to do so for them. And being a contender is no excuse for not developing your prospects. All good contenders do both. The Leafs' don't.

This is a team that is so terrible at development that they have managed to turn Dermott from one of the best 3rd pairing Ds in the league 3 years ago - a D who provided plenty of offense, while also being strong defensively, and someone who all Leafs' fans felt would be a strong top-4 quickly - to a shadow of himself today, playing 12 minutes a game with zero dynamism to his game.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 mars 2021 à 14 h 2
Sujet: A trade that pushes this team over the edge
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>python3504</b></div><div>yes and in this offer is multiple 2nds and 2 first round prospects, 2 of the top 4 prospects for the leafs. i think its a bit of an overpayment.</div></div>

Did the trade change?

I am seeing a 2nd and 3rd round pick (and neither for this summer), plus Abramov who was a 4th round pick and Liljegren who despite being a massive draft steal and getting the most massive advantages according to all the Leafs fans I talk to (with him from day 1 being with the Marlies and under direct control of by far the greatest development program in the history of the universe), and despite the Leafs' having a terrible D right side from 2017 - 2020, has played the third fewest NHL games among the 31 first round picks from 2017 (only ahead of #31 OA Kostin and #28 OA Bowers who went the college route).

Even if there was no retention, I would turn this down if I was Nashville. With retention I wouldn't even consider it.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 mars 2021 à 18 h 13
Sujet: DID LA want a DYNAMIC LD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafloyalist</b></div><div>so who do u think he was talking about, they mentioned offering byfield, i would assume itd be byfield plus some as byfield isnt a legit nhl player yet</div></div>

I think that Blake has simply assessed his LHD prospects: Anderson, Hague and Bjornfot during their games in the NHL this year and has concluded that they don't have a dynamic LHD to play in the top-4 long-term (meaning that he doesn't think that Clague has what it takes to get there, while Anderson and Bjornfot are not dynamic). Therefore, I don't think that Blake has a specific player in mind, but has a specific type of player that he is looking for (25 or younger, dynamic LHD) and he has ensured that every team in the league knows that he is looking for that type of D (if he was looking at one D specifically then he would have kept things quiet and just kept negotiating for that one specific D). There are not a ton of D out there who match that description, so what Blake would be willing to give up would depend on what another team is willing to give. And he undoubtedly dangled those high end C prospects to see what kind of interest he can get, then he takes the best trade option. If Ottawa was willing to trade Chabot or Columbus was willing to trade Werenski then I am sure LA would be willing to trade a player like Byfield. Most of the other D who fit the description would get a return of much less.
Forum: Armchair-GM28 févr. 2021 à 14 h 59
Sujet: Vilardi to TO
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AkiLumme</b></div><div>Yeah I think a trade centered around Sandin for a Kings C prospect would be more fitting with what the Kings need. I would want Vilardi or better in return though (ducks for cover).</div></div>

I do think that LA will likely trade for the 25 or younger dynamic LHD that Friedman says they are looking for and they will likely trade one of their high-end forward prospects (still including Vilardi in that group) in the process. I doubt it will be Sandin, although I am sure LA will inquire about him (as it was rumoured that Blake wanted Sandin when he traded Muzzin).

I do think that Sandin is more likely than not to get traded at some time over the next year and half though, because I think that relationship has been fractured.
Forum: Armchair-GM28 févr. 2021 à 14 h 26
Forum: Armchair-GM28 févr. 2021 à 14 h 4
Sujet: Vilardi to TO
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tryger</b></div><div>The problem here is (1) Vilardi has already graduated and Sandin has not (2) That Sandin couldn’t beat out Dermott and Lehtonen for more ice time this season tells me he’s not ready yet (3) Vilardi is already a Calder candidate and eating real minutes at the NHL than Sandin (4) could you please show the prospect ranking list that has Vilardi and Sandin close? They have always been in different draft tiers.</div></div>

Pronman's list of best under-23-year-old players (this includes both NHL players and prospects) from January 8th had:

Sandin #71 in his high-end/very good bubble tier (top-line or pairing and second-line or pairing bubble)
Vilardi #91 in his very good player tier (second line forward/second pairing D)

However, I would not trade Vilardi one-for-one if I were LA, despite LA having tons of C prospect depth with Byfield, Turcotte, Kupari, Madden, and despite Sandin actually fitting what Friedman said Blake is looking for, for the simple reason that Vilardi is a big C who is already filling a regular NHL role who they have no reason to trade.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>I don’t want Sandin if I’m Blake, I want Lehtonen, Vilardi is the Kings best graduated prospect if a team wants him, it won’t be cheap.</div>

Lehtonen is 27. Friedman said Blake is looking for a 25-or younger dynamic LHD.

Incidentally, saying that Sandin couldn't beat out Dermott or Lehtonen for ice time is misleading. Keefe made clear in camp that there was no competition for roster spots, so beating someone out was not possible (the view at The Athletic was that Sandin was far better than either Dermott or Lehtonen in the sole pre-season blue vs white game, and having watched the game it seemed really clear that Sandin easily better). Dermott requiring waivers on a team with zero cap space meant that there was no chance he was going to get moved off the roster. Lehtonen being an over-seas free agent who Toronto promised a roster spot to on a team that is obsessed with keeping that overseas free agent pipeline open no matter what, meant that there was no possibility the Leafs' were going to play Sandin over Lehtonen (despite the latter rarely getting into games because even though he is strong offensively Lehtonen can't play defense at all and his defensive numbers are arguably the worst the league).
Forum: Armchair-GM27 févr. 2021 à 14 h 6
Sujet: Different LD ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ZiggyPalffy</b></div><div>That's because you know not just the Kings fans will laugh at you, but so will everyone else on here.</div></div>

Again - who cares about an AMG. Friedman didn't do an AGM..... oh my gosh.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>Our long term weakness is RD, not LD.</div>

Your GM apparently completely disagrees with you. No surprise.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>Anderson has 3+ Calder votes already.</div>

Because that is how year end awards work. Is there anything you do know? Not that any NHL GM would assess their team needs by made up award voting anyway.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>I don't need an egotistical know-it-all that doesn't know anything about my team to tell me otherwise.

Enjoy my ignore list, kid.</div>

And yet, again - I recognized exactly what your team needed weeks ago, Dreger confirmed it was what Blake is specifically looking for and yet you continue to double down on believing the exact opposite and that is, again, why no one should care about what fans like you think.
Forum: Armchair-GM27 févr. 2021 à 13 h 16
Sujet: Different LD ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ZiggyPalffy</b></div><div>That's funny because all summer long Kings fans said they'd draft Byfield, aquire a LD, Vilardi would be 2C, Byfield and Turcotte would not make the team, Anderson would be in the top 4, Clague and Bjornfot would see games, and here we are with all that happening;)</div></div>

Fans understanding that a team as weak as the KIngs are on the LD would be using LD prospects is not something hard to figure out at all. It is basically what almost every team that is extremely weak in a certain position has a tendency to do (the exceptions being legit contenders who almost always fill that position by signing or trade, or weak teams that don't want to discourage development of very high end prospects by bringing them up too soon - so what happened with the Kings this season in terms of who was played was the most obviously predictable thing in the history of hockey). Then the team uses that situation of seeing how their prospects looked in those roles to assess the long-term fit and needs for the team at that position while the fanbase always thinks that those prospects are amazing and their long-term needs have been met. The team instead recognizes that some of those prospects are unlikely to be future top-4s on a competitive team, and/or that they don't fit together the right way for where the team sees itself several years down the line and/or they realize that they have a hole or something missing from their envisioned future lineup - for instance, a young dynamic LHD. Blake knows a lot about D and a properly built D-core and according to Dreger this is what he thinks: "Rob Blake of the Los Angeles Kings is another one looking for a defenseman…25-and-under, he specifically wants a dynamic, left-shot defenseman." So I should care, at all, that some Kings fans like you think the exact opposite?
Forum: Armchair-GM27 févr. 2021 à 13 h 1
Sujet: Different LD ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ZiggyPalffy</b></div><div>First of all, those are rumors. Second of all, almost all Kings fans on here don't believe it.

It's funny because you think you know better than the Kings fans on here some of which have been season ticket holders since the 80s. If your ego is that big, I can't help you and this conversation is over.</div></div>

Again - Dreger said exactly what I had said - and exactly the opposite of what you continue to say. You can say it is a rumor, but it is the very rumor you based this AGM on. And Dreger said that this was specifically what Blake was after, whereas he usually hedges his guesses and rumours - adds a lot of "I think" statements etc. None of that here at all. Fanbases always think that their team is going to do what they want the team to do. Teams almost never do that.
Forum: Armchair-GM27 févr. 2021 à 12 h 6
Sujet: Different LD ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ZiggyPalffy</b></div><div>It's common sense if you're a Kings fan lol.</div></div>

The last thing that I have ever cared about in my life is what fanbases (my own and other teams') think is common sense.

We had this discussion two weeks ago when I said that that LA's biggest need was a young LHD with top-4 potential and you felt that LHD was not a need at all for the team and RHD was a big need.

According to Dreger they are looking for the exact kind of D I said they would be: "Rob Blake of the Los Angeles Kings is another one looking for a defenseman…25-and-under, he specifically wants a dynamic, left-shot defenseman."

You still disagree and think that the Kings are looking for the exact opposite kind of D from what Dreger said they are specifically looking for - because that is where "common sense" leads fanbases.

Dreger could be wrong, but usually when someone like Dreger says something that specific it is because the team wants that floated out there so all other teams know that that is what is they are looking for.

If they were looking for Ekholm and Fabbro then they would simply deal with the team.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>We already have Bjornfot, Anderson, and Clague who have already shown they can play 20+ minutes in the NHL. If the Kings are going to give up a high end player, it'll be for someone who is already established.</div>

Tons of D show they can play 20+ minutes in the NHL. Doing so for a few games - especially on a team that either has weak D on that side or is facing a lot of injuries - doesn't mean anything. Teams will test out D to see what they have and if they don't feel that what they have is a fit for where they ideally see their D long-term they look elsewhere.

It was easy to see that among Bjornfot, Anderson and Clague, Bjornfot is the only one who has decent potential of being a real top-4 D and he is not dynamic at all.

They have tons of great F prospects. Outside of Bjornfot their better young D prospects are on the right side.

There are few dynamic LHD who are established and are 25 or younger right now. Most of those will not be getting moved: Dahlin, Werenski, Sergachev, Provorov, Heiskanen, Hughes etc. Maybe Blake can acquire someone in the group just below that with his high-end F prospect pool - but there are not many there who are established. Only 22 25 or younger LHD have played more than100 games and that includes non-dynamic D like Zadorov, Graves, Mueller, etc. But, nothing was said about the D being established - LHD - dynamic - 25 or under.

When Nashville traded Jones they had a log jam with Weber and Ellis ahead of Jones on the right (Josi and Ekholm on the left).

There are not many situations with log-jams on the left resulting in LHD either being played down the lineup from where they otherwise could be, or not in the lineup at all.

I think that Bean is the best example - stuck behind Slavin and Skjei, with Hayden Fleury also there. Another example would be the logjam that Colorado has on the left with Girard, Toews and Graves playing ahead of Byram. And another is the logjam Toronto has on the left with Sandin.

Bean is not exempt from the ED (Sandin and Byram are) making him someone who I think could be moved.

Incidentally here are the top-14 (by Pronman from a month ago, based on potential - only giving the top-14 as those were the only ones he deemed as having top-pairing potential) LHD who are under the age of 23 (in order):

Dahlin, Hughes, Heiskanen, Sergachev, Girard, Chychrun, Byram, Sanderson, Romanov, Smith, Harley, Sandin, Heinola and Bean.

That potential should matter far more to LA than someone who is established right now - but you think they are looking for someone to play with Doughty right now. I think - and had before Friedman said a thing - that they are looking for a LHD to bring some dynamic play to their second pair and that is the bigger benefit to them long-term.
Forum: Armchair-GM27 févr. 2021 à 1 h 36
Sujet: Different LD ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ZiggyPalffy</b></div><div>Mete and Butcher aren't dynamic, Bean and Sandin aren't established like the Kings want, and lastly trades like this always catch people by surprise.

Ekholm and Fabbro make most sense to me because they aren't "untouchable" and one of them is on the block. Yes, Kings said they are looking for a "dynamic LD 25 or under" but they also said they want someone who can play with Doughty and Doughty loves playing with defensive D. They get a defensive LD to play with Doughty as well as a dynamic #2 RD under 25 that could potentially replace Doughty someday and they do not have that. By the time Ekholm is a UFA, Bjornfot and Anderson will be able to take the LD torch. It's a win win.</div></div>

I am going exactly with what Dreger said:

"Rob Blake of the Los Angeles Kings is another one looking for a defenseman…25-and-under, he specifically wants a dynamic, left-shot defenseman."

Dynamic, left-shot defenseman, 25-and-under.

Nothing at all about "established like the Kings want" - that's what you want. Would they ideally want that? Sure - as would every team, but Seth Jones trades happen once a decade at most, and the most important criteria according to Dreger were: 25-and-under, left-shot defenseman and dynamic.

Ekholm and Fabbro do not make sense for what Dreger said.
Forum: Armchair-GM27 févr. 2021 à 1 h 6
Sujet: Different LD ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ZiggyPalffy</b></div><div>We are. Apparently upper management is content long term at RD with Doughty, Roy, Walker which I am strongly against.

Long term Bjornfot, Anderson, Clague is fine, but it looks like they want to upgrade now.</div></div>

This is where I believed LA's management would be assessing things. Of Anderson, Clague and Bjornfot only the latter is someone I would consider to likely be a real top-4 going forward, and he is not a dynamic D.

Of the LD you mentioned: Ekholm is well above 25, Dahlin won't be traded, Werenski...can't see it, Romanov - no way (but Mete will probably be traded), Lindgren...I guess it is possible (but certainly not Fox, who is a RD anyway), Sergachev - no way Tampa is trading that kind of piece, Chychrun - can't see it, Pettersson - who knows with Pitts right now, but is he really a "dynamic" D?, and Dunn - probably.

So among the candidates you listed I really only see Dunn as a real possibility.

But I would add Mete, Bean and Butcher. And, personally, I would also add Sandin .