20 juin 2019
Flames de Calgary
Deuxième équipe favorite
Lightning de Tampa Bay
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>I disagree with that price for Mange. He is still well above average S% this year and points totals is a way better thing to look at than just goals as some players are more of playmakers than finishers. Right now Mangiapane is pace for 52 points (45 goals and 7 assists). The year Bjorkstrand signed his deal he was on pace for 64 points (26 goals 38 assists), Bjorkstrand also has a very solid 2-way game. Teravainen put up 76 points the year he signed for 5.4M (21 goals 55 assists), and he is well known for being an elite 2-way winger. Konecny was coming off a 49 point season (24 goals 25 assists), but he was also younger (22). Buchnevich just signed for 5.8M after pacing 73 points (30 goals 43 assists). There is very little justification out there that says Mangiapane should get 6M. He will very likely get around 5.5M. I get if this is nitpicking but every dollar counts this upcoming offseason.
I don't really get why you brought up Tkachuk's term, obviously the goal is to sign him to a long term deal. Is it the Team Arbitration thing? All that does is prevent him from signing a 1 year deal with the QO then leaving. If he didn't sign that 1 year 9M deal he would still 100% file for arbitration himself. Every RFA eligible does (that doesn't sign an OS first). Team Arbitration filing doesn't prevent a long term contract deal from being made before the actual hearing. Look at Brandon Carlo for example, Boston filed for Arb and then signed him to a 6 year deal before the hearing.
I explained the Gaudreau part in the previous post: 8M x 8y = 9.14M x 7y | 8.5M x 8y = 9.71M x 7y. For Gaudreau to go somewhere else the team would have to pay him quite a bit extra to make up for that 8th year.
Weegar had 18 points that year but had way better advanced stats. I am also not using Weegar as a direct comparable player as I consider them quite different styles. I just think that there is no way Calgary can logically commit to a long term and expensive deal with Kylington after only 30 good games. You dont want to end up with a contract that backfires like M. Pettersson, Mathesson, or Skjei. Without further proof that he is as good as we think he is I just don't think there is a way to justify giving him too much, the Islander's approach with Pelech/Pulock is way better. He still even has 2 RFA year left after this one, so it's entirely possible that he is given a "prove it" deal for 1 year then sign him long term.
I do think you are forgetting 1 very important detail here though, and that is Treliving's RFA negotiation track record. He is so good at negotiating team friendly deals so even if Tkachuk could get 9.5M+ from somewhere else, even if some GM's would sign Mangiapane to 6M or more, even if Kylington proves to be a 5M player. Treliving is more likely than not to get them signed for more team friendly deals.
Thanks for listening to my TedTalk</div></div>
I mean I'm basically on a very similar wavelength overall honestly.
I will say Mangiapane's assists are probably more a product of his linemates (Coleman was shooting like 4% prior to last week, Backlund's only shooting 5%, Dube is the unluckiest player on the planet, Monahan's having a down year and is turning into more of a PP specialist, Ritchie is a black hole offensively), rather than his abilities. Most of his goals are solo efforts, plus he isn't on PP1. That might ultimately be what keeps his price down, but I do think goals cost more (not one of those guys hit even 30 goals, Buch only paced 30, Mang will likely hit 35 for real). I could see anywhere in 5-6 making sense depending on the term.
For Tkachuk, I mostly mean that we shouldn't push back too hard on AAV if we get term. In arbitration we would probably have to give him like, a 1x8 or something, but he can take that and hit the open market. Filing for arbitration is obviously the play regardless (to skip the QO), but we really need to avoid actually going to arbitration, as the Tkachuks are infamous for holding out. So give him the 9mil AAV he wants to skip actually going to arbitration and get 6+ years was my point.
We agree on Gaudreau, 8x8-8.5 just makes too much sense (probably 8.5 given the year he's having).
Weegar does have crazy good analytics, but Kylington does have pretty solid analytics as well and has been one of the best pairs in the league alongside Tanev. Obviously Tanev's defensive prowess helps a lot, but Kylington's been solid at both ends in his own right, and is significantly better offensively than Weegar was (much better playmaker, great offensive instincts, great skater, upside of being a PP1 QB). And again, goals/points are the real money makers in the NHL, even for D. There's a reason Tanev only got 4.5mil, Zub only got 2.5mil, Cernak's under 3mil, Carlo's 4.1mil, etc. If any of them could hit 40 points they'd be making millions more (see McDonagh, who put up 46 points in his contract year lol). I think 3x3.5 is a pretty reasonable expectation for Kylington.
I will say you're right, Treliving is usually a pretty good negotiator (Hanifin, Andersson, Lindholm, and the Mangiapane bridge are some of the best contracts in the league), so that should probably be considered. I'm just not sure it's gonna work this time around (Tkachuk's stubborn af, Gaudreau can always just walk, Kylington has never made more than league min so he'll want a decent raise, Mangiapane might score the most goals since Iggy lol).
Overall I still do think that Monahan will probably be on the move this summer, and we'll have to replace him with someone in the 4-5mil cap range. It might be possible to keep him if the negotiations go well (5-5.5 for Mang, maybe 8.25 for Johnny, 3x3 for Kylington or something) but we should probably try to look for an upgrade regardless. In the context of the last thread (replace Chychrun with Kylington, add 1.1mil to the cap) I think we would probably look to move on from Lucic too. Maybe we could swing something like Kylington+Lucic for Olofsson (as a base). Or better yet, just dump the cap, bring in a decent pick that we can use for deadline upgrades, and try to add Hertl. Probably costs 8-9mil, but top line / Mangiapane-Hertl-Dube / Pelletier-Backlund-Coleman sounds really good, and then the 4th line can be some combo of Ruzicka/Gawdin/Lewis/Duehr/random cheap UFAs (preferably not Brett Ritchie).