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Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

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Forum: Armchair-GM6 sept. 2021 à 12 h 42
Sujet: The Hertl reality
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>If you sign him for 2 years he's probably looking at closer to 7M per year. If you're wanting to sign him for more than 4 years that will significantly compromise his chances of getting paid big on his next contract as he will be very close to his 30s.

That 11M+ figure is for an 8 year deal.</div></div>

Makar is 22...turns 23 in October...so his next contract starts when he's 28- yet most of that year will be at 29 yo.
I'd look to put Fox in the same type situation...a 5 year deal would have him starting his next contract at 29 and turn 30 5-6 weeks before playoffs.
If you model his deal on Makar's...look to lock him down now at something like 5 X 8.5...for sure that's a discount but he still will have another real good contract after that taking him into his mid 30's.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 août 2021 à 0 h 56
Sujet: Threat level midnight
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>Compher's real dollars cost more than his cap hit Melnyk wouldn't take on that kind of contract. I don't think Compher even played up to his cap hit last season.

Nick Paul I think they'd like to re-sign maybe 2.25Mx4 or something like that would be fair. If they don't re-sign him the minimum I'd trade him for is a 2nd round pick (preferably a 2nd and a 3rd) (I haven't seen enough of Kaut to know what his value is).

Drouin's value is low right now. Some people are considering him a cap dump. Maybe you can trade Compher for him (considering the Habs need another centre).</div></div>


This isn’t the year to trade compher, Avs would be selling low and he hasn’t played up to cap hit but he has speed and if he could put that ability together that he showed in his contract year then it would be worth it to keep him going into his last year, I think he has great value to the right team but I’m still not sure what you’re saying by comphers real dollars, are the sens trying to save money?

I haven’t watched a lot of Paul’s film but his stats aren’t what I like which is why I’m guessing your valuing him at a 2nd and 3rd usually that isn’t requested for someone who hasn’t scored more than 20 points in a season, he has intangibles haha
Forum: Armchair-GM20 août 2021 à 6 h 49
Sujet: Comparing KK to Couturier
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>I don't understand this. You're saying both players are elite defensively and then comparing how many points they got? Points aren't the best representation of how good a player's defense is imo.

I know plus minus isn't the best representation of how good a player is but probably a better representation than points. Couturier has had a better plus minus than the rest of his teammates almost every season. The only season where that's true for KK is his rookie season. KK had a very promising rookie season but seems to have stagnated or gotten worse since then.

Couturier was already taking on some of the hardest matchups in the league in his 3rd season. KK didn't play any shutdown role for the Habs. Maybe we'll get to see that with Danault gone?</div></div>

Yes the goal of this was more to indicate that it can take a while for big young C before they start to produce offensively. Couturier did not break 40 pts until his 7th NHL season despite playing over 18 minutes a game for 4 of his first 6 seasons. He had a 50 pt pace in 5th year and 42 pt pace in 6th year but didn't crack 40 pts due to injuries. Couturier was at least a top defensive player during that time, and while I'm not saying KK is the same type of player... KK did have indicators he could be a strong defensive player in his rookie season.

It's more just to point out KK's production for his age (7 months younger than Couturier when comparing all these seasons) is normal and that if KK was given a bigger role we would likely see significant progression. No where in the original post did I make a case for KK being a future Selke candidate, I just pointed out the praise he got as a rookie.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>I agree with you but I think it's a bit of a stretch to compare KK's defense with Couturier's defense. KK might be a good 2 way player <strong>one day</strong> but his defense is nowhere near what Couturier's was at the same age. It all starts with faceoff percentage Couturier is/was one of the best faceoff takers in the league Kotkaniemi has never averaged 50% in a season (average is about 45% so far).

I predict KK gets 2.5Mx2 so not far off what OP suggested. I just disagree that he's a Selke candidate defensive player.</div></div>

See this point about facoffs is exactly the point I'm trying to make. Couturier is now a top faceoff guy, but in his first three season he was only 46.8%. KK's is 45.9%. Couturier did not enter the league as an elite faceoff guy or a top offensive center. These things take time, sometimes 5 to 6 years, and that is the only thing I'm trying to point out. Habs fans need to be patient with KK.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 août 2021 à 23 h 4
Sujet: Comparing KK to Couturier
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>I agree with you but I think it's a bit of a stretch to compare KK's defense with Couturier's defense. KK might be a good 2 way player <strong>one day</strong> but his defense is nowhere near what Couturier's was at the same age. It all starts with faceoff percentage Couturier is/was one of the best faceoff takers in the league Kotkaniemi has never averaged 50% in a season (average is about 45% so far).

I predict KK gets 2.5Mx2 so not far off what OP suggested. I just disagree that he's a Selke candidate defensive player.</div></div>

I don't necessarily agree with the comparison, but I can't refute it as an idea, simply because there isn't enough to indicate whether KK can, or can not, perform in a defensive role.
There may be a reason for that which staff is privy to, but there's no stats for what they see in drills and practice.

I'm not concerned about faceoffs yet. Couturier was sub 50% for his first 5 seasons as well. It's not unusual for young NHL centers.

I do agree that Couturier was the better defensive player however. Evans would be a better comparison with how quickly both players were incorporated into their teams' defense. Can Evans reach that level of production would be the question then.

The Selke thing I don't see either. There's really nothing there <strong>to</strong> see. If he was clearly dominating possession while on the ice, to the point where goals against were few, I could see it despite not playing a defensive role.
I mean, 2 goals against/60 is better than Bergeron over several years, but Bergeron regularly has a significant goal differential, where KK's was only +4.
So yes, there may be some small indicators if you dig deep and find indications to fit that narrative, but I find it hard to believe the voting committee sees it. Most still stubbornly cling to plus/minus as a highly relevant stat.

I have KK at 2 years @ $2.75M, but either is close enough to what should have already been agreed to.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 août 2021 à 20 h 59
Sujet: Comparing KK to Couturier
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>I don't understand this. You're saying both players are elite defensively and then comparing how many points they got? Points aren't the best representation of how good a player's defense is imo.

I know plus minus isn't the best representation of how good a player is but probably a better representation than points. Couturier has had a better plus minus than the rest of his teammates almost every season. The only season where that's true for KK is his rookie season. KK had a very promising rookie season but seems to have stagnated or gotten worse since then.

Couturier was already taking on some of the hardest matchups in the league in his 3rd season. KK didn't play any shutdown role for the Habs. Maybe we'll get to see that with Danault gone?</div></div>

I think it's to add to the argument that KK can be a good 2-way player even if his point totals appear low at present.
There's no accurate way to identify good defense with statistics. You have to extrapolate from the data which is available. Even strength GF/GA with an eye on deployment and possession metrics is about the best we can do. Some zone stats, like controlled entries/exits are out there as well, but how all these can be combined to accurately reflect a player's defensive ability is still a work in progress.

KK is about even in GF/GA, despite favorable deployment and possession. That would seem to indicate he is not strong defensively, but without more data of him playing a more defensive role, that's not a definitive conclusion.

I can tell you he's more physically engaged, taking possession more often, and turning the puck over less.
I can also tell you he has seemed increasingly less inclined to shoot the puck as well.
If he can keep the rest up and put more pucks on net, there's no reason he shouldn't be given opportunity to play and improve on the defensive side of the game.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 août 2021 à 17 h 16
Sujet: EICHEL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>Yes</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Why would Edmonton have to give up more than NYR? This is a better return than basically every Eichel-to-Rangers trade I've seen on here. Double standard.</div></div> Wow! I was about to post how much I liked this trade.
Then I scrolled down to you to find the same thought.
Holloway, Bouchard, and Puljujärvi all have above average potential to be top 6 forwards or top 4 defensemen.
Bouchard punches the first ticket <strong>RHD</strong>, If he were on the team he would most likely be paired with Dahlin.
<strong>RW</strong> prospect. Among Puljujärvi, Quinn, Peterka, Rosen I am certain the Sabres will find two blue chippers.
<strong>Center</strong> Similar idea among Holloway, Cozens, Mittelstadt, Ruotsalainen, Asplund the Sabres will find two decent 2nd line centers (not one of them will make us forget Jack).
Jack traded to a team out <strong>west</strong>.
<strong>Three picks as well</strong>

We can sit here an discuss Kassian and Koskinen value, but the former adds the long needed grit and the latter a decent GK tandem to keep the Sabres from being embarrassed too often this year.
I make this trade every chance I get. K and K will be gone by time the Sabres are competitive.

Let me add, I think by the time 2022 TDL rolls around Karmanos will be getting at least third round picks for Hagg, Butcher and Miller to add to the future draft picks.
Who knows maybe Koskinen finds his game and returns a pick as well.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 août 2021 à 7 h 33
Sujet: DeMelo D core shake up
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>I mean there gonna need cap space to extend PLD and Copp and get a proper backup for buck. Plus Heinola or Samberg need a spot. So hes probs gonna get moved at some point

That said its probs a 2nd + something else with no retention</div></div>

I guess, he can go for whatever as far as I'm concerned, DeMelo is pretty overrated imo just don't see retention happening if they moved him.

Depending on the season he has and if he even wants to extend in Winnipeg PLD'S raise might be doable with Stastny coming off the books and Beaulieu expiring frees up a bit more but yeah its pretty tight to make it all fit after the Schmidt and Dillon trades.
It's ridiculous that Heinola looks like he's the odd man out this year unless another move on the backend is coming, the kid is ready for the NHL.
Forum: Armchair-GM13 août 2021 à 17 h 34
Sujet: How many points will team have at the end of the season
Thank you all for comments.
This was all for fun, as none of the trades were meant to be valid.
I guess I should have made both of them for "Future Considerations" to avoid the issue of fairness which seemed to dominate the conversation.
This is a sad team.
No RW,
Old GK,
Young Centers.
Underperforming over paid wingers (Skinner and Okposo)
On the bright note for the Sabres, it is likely that they will have many first and second round picks this coming year.
Unfortunately, I do not have a lot of faith in the Sabres ability to draft well.
But the predictions ranged from whimsical (which brought a smile to my face) to thoughtful (which is what I was hoping all of the comments would be).
From a low of 7 (oh my word even I could not live through that season) to highs of 52 and 56 which is close to the 62 pts in 2017-'18 when the team had O'Reilly, Kane and Lehner.
<strong>IMO even if Olofsson is on the team they will struggle to reach 56 pts.</strong>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ZachHymanForTheHart</b></div><div>7
give or take a couple</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>That's pretty generous.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>thewookie1</b></div><div>Sabres decline the Rangers deal rather quickly
Unsure about EDM one though</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>I'd predict a record of 16-61-5. So 37 points.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GoodIdeaAtTheTime</b></div><div>Agreed. Have to get more for Eichel retained $1.5 M.
Sabres probably decline the Edmonton deal too. Essentially getting a 2nd for taking both Koskinen and Kassian cap dumps. Pass.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GoodIdeaAtTheTime</b></div><div>You put the guys in the lineup so it's relevant to how many points/wins they'd get.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Timmah007</b></div><div>Oilers absolutely can not move kosk without a goalie coming back. Reinvesting the cap savings just makes it next to impossible to find a replacement elsewhere.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lenny7</b></div><div>I'll predict that Craig Anderson rediscovers the fountain of youth, leads them to a super surprising 20-40-12 record, and that Kenny Holland signs him to a 3 year, $12 mil deal next offseason to split time with Mikey Smith.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsRSus</b></div><div>23-49-10 for a total of 56pts and 2nd Last ahead of Arizona</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sabres89</b></div><div>Around 50. Olofsson wont and shouldnt be traded. Probably lucky if they score 150 for the season, the question for me is just how many they will give up. My guess is 350.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>IconicHawk</b></div><div>Realistically below 45</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>That's fine, the Oilers reject in any case. Olofsson has less than zero value to the Oilers.</div></div>
Forum: Armchair-GM11 août 2021 à 14 h 18
Forum: NHL Signings9 août 2021 à 19 h 6
Sujet: Vancouver Canucks signed Olli Juolevi (1 Year / $750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>To think the Canucks could have had Matthew Tkachuk instead... but Jim Benning went off the board because he wanted a defenceman.

This is why you take the best player available.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Tmclean64</b></div><div>If they took Tkachuk, (who lacks character and isnt Canucks material), they likely wouldnt have got Hughes or Pettersson. Im fine with the Juolevi pick, kid has a lot of untapped potential.

This is just a spiteful comment, typical for a Laffs fan, the contract is excellent. Good signing by JB.</div></div>

<strong>OK lets just be honest and not get so defensive. </strong>

Juolevi was a terrible terrible pick.

Pettersson was a great pick.

Virtanen has actual character issues.

I'd rather have Tkachuk than Hughes.