SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

Kalopsia

Membre depuis
27 juin 2018
Équipe favorite
Capitals de Washington
Messages dans les forums
630
Messages par jour
0.3
Forum: Armchair-GM23 juin 2023 à 13 h 48
Sujet: First Post v2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HughMann413</b></div><div>On this current roster, yeah, Nylander wouldn't find a spot on the PP. But with the one I built...he would get plenty of time. Nothing wrong with a right shot on the right side of the PP. People tend to forget that traditional right wingers are right shots. I've never been one to worry about "elite" Defensive forwards not being on the top line. The first line SHOULD be your best point producers. (I have my reasons for putting Backy on the top line, btw). I've also always thought that Wilson's point production limit is about where he is now. <strong>Nylander, in a good situation, could easily be a 45+/65+ guy.</strong></div></div>

So playing on a line with Matthews and on a PP with Matthews, Marner, and Tavares isn't a good situation? I think the only better situation he could be in for point production would be playing with McDavid in Edmonton. Joining the Caps would be a massive downgrade in offensive support.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HughMann413</b></div><div>Backstrom is a whole lot more important to the Caps than Oshie. Don't get me wrong, I love Oshie, but in my mind Ovi-Backy are my hockey equivalent of Jordan-Pippen. They are PB+J. You can split em em, but it'll never taste as good as when they are put together...toasted of course 😉

Tarasenko frequently played on a line with Ovi and Malkin in international play. Most Russians in the NHL are close(few exceptions). And it wouldn't just be for Ovi...Suz and IM are gonna need good mentors/examples.

You said it perfectly...A "2C" on an AHL team. Not a good sign that this far into his development that he is only trusted with 2C on the little club. Everyone acts like he is putting up 40/40 in the AHL. VERY Overrated by Caps fans.</div></div>

I agree Backstrom's going nowhere, I just think Oshie is gonna be treated pretty much the same way. IMO they're gonna be stapled together on the 3rd line and given sheltered minutes in the hope that they can stay healthy for the playoffs, or in Backstrom's case just not hurt the team as much as he did last season.

That's not really a lot to go on for Tarasenko. Also, Suzdalev was born in Russia but raised and played all his junior hockey in Sweden. He'd probably be looking to Backstrom more as a mentor.

They never posted the lines anywhere, but the team Hershey went up against in the finals had last year's 4th OA pick Shane Wright playing for it, and from what I remember he wasn't on their top line either. AHL teams tend to put vets in those positions.

Literally nobody put up 40/40 in the AHL this year. It's not a high scoring league, particularly for young prospects, with the highest scoring U22 player recording 58 points in 68 games. And even by the standards of that low scoring league, Hershey was a low-scoring team, ranking 7th out of 8 in goals scored in their division.

I'm not saying McMichael's season was spectacular, but I think he's perfectly ready to be a 3C in the NHL and still has room to grow and improve offensively if given the chance to play in a more open system with better wingers.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 juin 2023 à 13 h 7
Sujet: METROPOLITAN Trade partner and Bergeron one more time
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AgentWebster</b></div><div>Where is the value in Tom Wilson for a first round pick? Explain it to me. In 10 years he only played three full season and those three full seasons came in his first four years. His style of play with his body breaking down does not justify a first round pick. In the last three years he’s played only 158 games of regular season out of a possible 246. I think you need to reevaluate what Tom Wilson is worth. With Washington on the verge of a rebuild a second round pick, and even a prospect is more than fair. Although I did not put a prospect in the deal, so if you wanna beat me up for that fine.</div></div>

I love how often people make claims about Wilson being injury prone based solely on looking at his games played numbers. Ok, lets go through his career season-by-season.

2013-14: Played 82 of a possible 82 games.

2014-15: Played 67 of a possible 82 games. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capitals-insider/wp/2014/07/09/a-quick-injury-update-on-tom-wilsons-ankle/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">He missed the start of the season due to a broken fibula he suffered in a fall during the offseason.</a> Rumor was it was a skateboarding accident. Definitely not related to his style of play.

2015-16: Played 82 of a possible 82 games.

2016-17: Played 82 of a possible 82 games.

2017-18: Played 78 of a possible 82 games.

2018-19: Played 63 of a possible 82 games. This was due to suspension for the Sundqvist hit, not injury.

2019-20: Played 68 of a possible 69 games. This was the first Covid-shortened season.

2020-21: Played 47 of a possible 55 games. This was the other Covid-shortened season. The games he missed were from the Carlo suspension.

2021-22: Played 78 of a possible 82 games.

2022-23: Played 33 of a possible 82 games. He missed most of that time due to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gkMvtFXe1M" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">a chance knee-on-knee collision in the neutral zone at the end of the previous season in which he tore his ACL.</a> Had nothing to due with his style of play. He also missed 7 games for a hairline fracture in his foot that he received blocking a shot. That's the only significant injury he's ever had that can be attributed to his style of play, but it was due to his strong defensive work rather than his hitting.

TL;DR - Wilson's never had a significant injury due to his hitting.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 juin 2023 à 10 h 1
Sujet: Filhawk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>SPECIFICALLY, it was WSH fans who started, and ALSO incessantly post, the Mantha dump trades. They started out with WSH fans thinking they could get something for him, which is ridiculous. And every other fan base knows it too. He is a cap dump, can't stay healthy, he is overpaid, the Caps need cap space, and CHI is one of very few teams that can provide that for them. Those things create leverage. Also, there are studies on what picks are worth, what cap dumps cost, and how actual salary dollar amount effects the price of cap dumps, which CHI fans have used to determine prices. It isn't hive mind. It is being informed, and standing your ground on what cap relief costs. CHI doesn't need other teams garbage. We need assets that our rebuild can benefit from. These Mantha dumps have been going back and forth for months now. So where have you been?</div></div>

Yes, most Caps fans think he's a cap dump. I don't agree, but he's one of those players who becomes a fanbase's whipping boy. For what it's worth, the local Caps media person with actual connections, Tarik El-Bashir, thinks the same way I do - he's available, but they won't pay to get rid of him. From a Q&amp;A earlier this month:

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div><em>Is the ticket price to offload Anthony Mantha (paying a good chunk of his salary and adding a sweetener) steeper than just keeping him, hoping the new coach turns out to be an Anthony Whisperer and, at worst, a depth guy who covers for injuries and rest? I.e., are we stuck with Mantha? — Scott P.</em>

I suspect the Caps are going to make an attempt to move Mantha this offseason. But, like Kuznetsov, I don’t see MacLellan making a deal just to dump his salary. (I also don’t see them buying him out, for what it’s worth.)</div>

No Caps fan though, and no other fanbase, thinks he'll cost a 2nd rounder to dump. Here's the last few offers by non-Caps or Hawks fans where Mantha's the main part of the deal (I'm leaving out ones where he's part of a trade up to #5 for example, since it's too muddied to determine exactly how he's being valued).

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4262887">To the Avs with 700K returned for the 2024 COL 4th</a>

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4314213">To the Habs with the Caps' 2023 and 2024 4ths for no return</a>

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4313515">To the Canucks with the Caps' 2023 2nd and 2024 4th for Brock Boeser</a>

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4313462">To the Leafs with 1M in retention for no return</a>

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4312519">To the Habs for Mike Hoffman (1.5M retained) and Rem Pitlick</a>

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4312173">To the Habs with the Caps' 2023 2nd for Rem Pitlick and the Habs' 2023 3rd (OP comments on the trade, "might be a reach")</a>

As bizarre as it is to say, I've found Leafs, Habs, and Canucks fans to be much more reasonable in their offers for Mantha than Hawks fans have been. The Hawks are the only fanbase that keeps doing Mantha + 2nd for nothing despite Caps fans saying every time that it's not happening.

If you've got studies on cap dumps feel free to post them. It'll be interesting to see how the players involved compare to Mantha. Over his time with the Caps Mantha has 58 points in 118 games, which is a 40 point pace. He's only gotten second unit powerplay time, so almost all of that came at even strength. His 5 on 5 P/60 is 1.73, which puts him in the same neighborhood as Tyler Seguin, Bo Horvat, and Logan Couture. His 53.3 SAT% is the second highest amongst Caps forwards over the last three seasons (min 82 GP), and despite how lazy he might look on the ice the advanced stats have said he's good defensively every time I've seen them. Put it all together and that's a strong third-line winger. Is that worth a 5.7M cap hit? Obviously not, but that's his floor. Even if he doesn't bounce back, a player like that can be moved at the deadline with retention for a pick or two. If he's on pace for 30 goals come the next deadline, he could return a 1st. Personally I think the Caps will just keep him and see how he does under Carbery. The Caps aren't at all desperate for cap space except in unrealistic ACGMs where they trade for or sign 3 top 6 forwards.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 juin 2023 à 3 h 24
Sujet: First Post v2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HughMann413</b></div><div>Nylander had 87 points last year. Was +10. And had 70 TK compared to 37 GV. Wilson in his BEST year had 52 points. Yes, Wilson is physical. Yes the fans love him. But to get a player like Nylander and put him opposite of Ovi is a no brainer in my mind. Especially with Nylander just now going into his prime. I also don't like labeling most players as "not going to move". The Caps have always been pretty closed lip on their dealings. Also with Carbery just coming from Toronto, I feel like more Leafs are coming out way. :)</div></div>

I don't think the difference is as big as you're making it out to be. You're leaving out that Wilson's elite defensively while Nylander's very much not. At ES their production is closer than it seems. Wilson's was down this year, obviously due to returning mid-year from a torn ACL, but over the four previous seasons he had 1.86 P/60. Nylander over the same span had 2.14 P/60. The thing that really separates them is that Nylander gets first unit PP time with Matthews and Marner, while Wilson gets second unit PP time with a tired Ovechkin who was out with the first unit and Lars Eller. I think Nylander's PP production would crater in Washington because A) it's a significantly worse supporting cast, and B) how do you incorporate a right-shot sniper onto a PP that's already built around getting the puck to a different right-shot sniper? If they keep Forsythe's 1-3-1 set up I don't know where you put Nylander. Even if they move to something else though, how do you design a PP around both Ovie and Nylander? I can't think of a way that wouldn't force one of them to go underutilized. If you keep Wilson though and they stick with something built around the 1-3-1, then he slides right into Oshie's slot in the middle and probably adds 10-15 points a year to his total.

Also, the Caps were tight-lipped under McPhee, but MacLellan's a straight shooter. He doesn't dodge questions and he pretty much always does what he says. He just seems tight-lipped because the DC hockey media is non-existent so he never gets any interesting questions. He said he wants Wilson to retire a Cap, Elliotte Friedman got pretty much the same feedback when he probed about the Wilson situation a week or so ago, so the only question for me is how long it takes after July 1 for them to get the Wilson extension finalized.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>Oshies great, but sacrifices need to be made if we are going to follow through with our promise to Ovi.</div>

It's kind of weird to me how you're totally willing to overlook Backstrom's massive decline because of his service to the team, but you also want to kick Oshie to the curb. Backstrom's the much, much more dire medical situation IMO. There's no precedent for a guy making a comeback from the surgery he had, and MacLellan seemed extremely pessimistic about Backstrom's chances of improving this summer.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>How is a 50 point producer with a little snarl a bad fit? And how is a likely hall of famer who can do about everything a bad fit? Especially when there is a connection with Ovi.</div>

I mean, I'd rather just keep our own 50 point producer with a lot of snarl who's beloved in the organization. As for Tarasenko, I don't think he's a likely hall of famer but I wouldn't mind him. What's his connection to Ovie though, aside from being Russian?

The two of them together seem like a bad fit though because you've already created a top line that needs to be heavily sheltered with an aging Ovechkin, crippled Backstrom, and swapping Wilson for Nylander. Then you've constructed another line here with Bunting-Strome-Tarasenko that's also nothing but offense, and you've run out of cap room so you're left with basically two 4th lines that'll be forced to play a lot of tough minutes because of the makeup of the top 6.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>McMike is not a center...never will be. In my opinion as well, he will never be more than a Gustav Nyquist type guy. And that's probably too high of a ceiling. I personally prefer Lapierre. But that's me.</div>

McMichael hasn't been given a shot to be a center at the NHL level, which IMO is a big part of problem - he's a much better fit at center than win. At the AHL level this year he got to play center and definitely outperformed Lapierre. His boxcars won't jump out at you, but the Bears played a very D-focused style and nobody on that team had gaudy point totals. The fact that he was the 2C on a team that won the Calder Cup is enough for me to want him to get a real shot at C in the NHL.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 juin 2023 à 14 h 45
Sujet: Kuznetsov and the Russian persuasion
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>amullican</b></div><div>Yeah seems like I still overestimated it a bit. Which means Wyshynski's trade is a crazy over pay. I'm not the best at gauging trades where somebody retains salary lol</div></div>

It's also possible the groupthink on this site is off on Kuzy and teams don't view him the same way we do. I think people who are closer to the game and know how much coke and other drug use, pain killer abuse, etc goes on around the league probably don't care a whole lot about Kuzy's history with coke, while a lot of fans seem to think it makes him a locker room cancer who'll lead impressionable young teammates astray.

That said, I think if it was Carolina's 1st instead of Drury and Suzuki the Caps would probably take it. The Caps already have a ton of center prospects who probably have 2nd line upside, so Drury and Suzuki would just further clog up the system.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 juin 2023 à 16 h 23
Sujet: Toronto Golden Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingExLeafs</b></div><div>Back in 2020 Leafs had to give up the #13 pick to get out of the Marleau contract which was 6 million and had 1 year left.

The Kuznetsov contract is 2 million more and has 2 years left. Granted, Kuznetsov still has game left, but he isn't an 8 million dollar player anymore. So unless there is a team out there that will take him for free the Capitals will have to give up a highly valued asset to get rid of him.</div></div>

Marleau was 39 (and would be 40 by the start of the next season), coming off a 37 point season, 4 years removed from his last 50 point season, and had a 6.25M cap hit. He also had a full NMC, and only accepted the deal to the Canes because they agreed to buy him out so that he could go back to San Jose. From what I recall the Leafs were also over a barrel and desperately needed the cap space because they'd just signed Matthews to his 5 year 58M extension and still needed to extend Marner that summer.

Kuznetsov turned 31 a month ago, is coming off a 55 point season and is one year removed from putting up 78 in 79 games, and has a 7.8M cap hit with a 10 team NTC. The Caps could very easily keep him and ice pretty much the same roster they ended the year with, so there's no pressing need to get rid of him.

Do you honestly think these situations are remotely comparable?
Forum: Armchair-GM19 juin 2023 à 16 h 3
Forum: Armchair-GM19 juin 2023 à 14 h 28
Sujet: Buffalo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Arh613</b></div><div>I would think that is true, but maybe if the sabres added something like a B prospect or another mid round pick that could be enough to dump Mantha + only move back 3 spots and acquire a bottom 6 forward who can play wing or center and is somewhat cost controlled. I threw in Bryson at basically league min to be like a 6/7 D if that's of interest as well. Is there something to be added that would make the Caps move back or are they most likely to stand pat and see who falls to them?</div></div>

The Caps problem is that they have too many bottom six forwards and not enough top six. They've also got their top 6 D pretty well set and a few guys who should be competing for the 7th D spot (lucas Johansen, Hardy Haman Aktell, Gabriel Carlsson if they give him a QO). This trade doesn't really do much for the Caps.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 juin 2023 à 14 h 3
Sujet: Caps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Aasen6</b></div><div>Iorio isn’t close to the nhl level yet. Rathbone absolutely dominated the ahl last year and is a legit nhl caliber d man at this moment. </div></div>

Iorio's a year away at most and has shown consistent growth each year since being drafted. I don't know how 14 points in 37 games is "dominating" for a 24 year old offensive defenseman in the AHL, and playing 14 minutes a night in 11 NHL games doesn't seem like proof he's a legit NHL defenseman.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>If you just wanna base players off where they were drafted and not how they actually play I guess mark stone sucks cause he was a 6th round pick and pavelski is a bum cause he was a 7th rounder right?</div>

Nice strawman. Neither Iorio nor Rathbone has established themselves in the NHL yet, so their draft pedigree is still relevant. Iorio's ceiling is much higher than Rathbone's.
Forum: Armchair-GM18 juin 2023 à 23 h 43
Sujet: Tommy Boy
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Terry_AkiSauce</b></div><div>"Robertson, young LW with high goal scoring upside - worthless. Brodie, worthless cause we're trying to get younger!" What buddy? Unless you guys re-sign Orlov, who's playing in your top 4 on the left side? Whos playing in your top 6 on the left side? And a first? For 1 year of Tom Wilson... Horrible trade</div></div>
Robertson looks like he can't stay healthy. He might not be worthless, but his value is going to be low until he shows he can play more than 40 games in a season.

The Caps' left side is Sandin, Fehervary, and Alexeyev. Brodie is more of what the Caps already have in Fehervary, Jensen, and TVR, and his 5M cap hit would take up valuable room the Caps need to upgrade their forwards. Leafs fans include him in trades to the Caps all the time for some reason (I guess they look at the Caps D contracts and think they need a LD because they miss that Fehervary's an RFA), but he's a terrible fit in Washington and is probably worth less to them than he would be to just about any other team.

A 1st in 2024 for a year of Wilson isn't close. The Caps don't view him as a rental, they view him as a core piece and will probably have him locked up on a new contract within the first few days of July. Here's what Eliotte Friedman said about him in his podcast a couple days ago.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>During the Final I really didn't get a chance to look into it too much. I heard the reports, I'll be honest I didn't hear any of the information myself, but I heard the reports, so finally I looked into it now that the SCF is over, and Jeff, I got rejected... I was rejected like Bam Adebayo was defending me. I was told it's not happening. I was told that the Capitals want to keep him, and they consider him a big part of their future. So someone said to me "make up other stuff like you always do, don't make up that one.</div>