SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

JP_knows_it_all

Membre depuis
11 avr. 2018
Équipe favorite
Canadiens de Montréal
Deuxième équipe favorite
Blackhawks de Chicago
Messages dans les forums
640
Messages par jour
0.3
Forum: Armchair-GM8 oct. 2020 à 11 h 29
Sujet: All plausible destinations AND contracts for top UFAs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CLR</b></div><div>Poehling is not nhl ready . Byron and Lekh are good players but 4th liners. So we need a top 9 LW considering we only have Tatar and Drouin. Considering we need 4lines to roll because we have no superstar , we indeed need a LW to play on the 2nd or 3rd line (depending where we slot Drouin)</div></div>

Tatar-Danault-Gallagher
Drouin-Suzuki-Anderson
Lehkonen-Kotkaniemi-Armia
Byron-Evans-Weal

Indeed, I'd be okay pushing Lehkonen on the 4th (LW or RW, both Byron &amp; Lehkonen play both sides), hence pushing Weal out of the line-up. That's fine, but there won't be lots of $$ remaining. for that 3rd line LW.

Anderson will get around 3-4 years at 3.5-3.7M$ AAV (let's assume 3.5M$). Habs have 10.86M$ of cap space with 18 players. So that's not 7.36M$ with 19 players. Switch Evans UP and Romanov down (he'll start in the AHL), that's + 0.144M$ so 7.5M$. Then, Mete will sign for 2 years at around 1.4M$, which makes it 6.1M$ with 20 players (still need 3). Add a guy like Hudon at 0,7M$ and C.Fleury at 0.77M$ : You'll have 4.6M$ of cap space with 22 players.

That LW would need to be in the 3 to 3.5M$ AAV range. Pretty sure that's what Dorion offered DuClair (he offered him a substential raise from 1.65M$...double? so 3.3M$ AAV?). He'll ask for more. Also, remember they'll have to re-up Gally, Tuna, KK &amp; Danault at the end of the year AND Suzuki + Romanov at the end of the year after that. I think they'll keep the 4.63M$ of cap space, just to make sure they can sign everyone next summer (or should I say next fall?). If only to add a piece at the deadline or eat salary for a year and recoup assets at the same time.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 oct. 2020 à 11 h 14
Sujet: All plausible destinations AND contracts for top UFAs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MelonVK</b></div><div>I'm actually shocked about everyone's prediction that Lundqvist will earn 1m or just under that. How has he not been better than most FA goalies? Even if he's dropped off a bit from his own high standards?

Toffoli will get more years, I'd be surprised of Florida decided to spend another huge contract on RHD where they have Ekblad and Strålman earning a combined 13m, and also Weagar etc. on top of that.</div></div>
Lundqvist juste got bought out. No one is saying he's "worth" 1M$ a year (at least, I hope!), but it's what he'll accept since he still wants to play and still wants to win (that,s what he tweeted the next day he got bought out). If he want to win, there's no way he makes more than 1M$ this season. No competing team will offer him more. And frankly, at this stage of his career, having already earned 100M$ in NHL salary + all the advertisement money he made (probably at least the same amount as playing in the NHL), he's not looking to get paid. He wants a cup. PERIOD. He's already making 1.5M$ this season and the next, so add 1M$ to each year and I'm pretty sure he'll be OK with that ;)

For Toffoli, his inconsistency will hurt him a bit, trying to get that bigger AAV, imho. Also worth noting, in a "2-3 years of flat cap" world, teams will be reluctant to hand out bigger payday than players are worth.

For FLORIDA, I'm with you on that one, but can't see where Pietrangelo could fit...Stralman could be bought out...we'll see! Where else you think he could realisticaly sign?
Forum: Armchair-GM28 sept. 2020 à 9 h 46
Sujet: my prediction with Laine
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lenny7</b></div><div>So, for Laine, you're giving up:
-Overpaid dman, that still has upside but hasn't shown it in a couple of years.
-Decent prospect that was alright in his first pro season.
-Good prospect that hasn't played in over a year, and has a pretty big question mark hanging over him.
-2nd round pick.

IMO, you've gotta give up something that you don't want to give up when you're getting a talent like Laine. Winnipeg has absolutely no reason to, and definitely shouldn't even think about trading him for question marks.</div></div>

Totally agree with you there. I could see a trade between WPG &amp; PHI going down like this : Laine + WIN's 3rd round pick (2021) to PHI / P.Myers + M.Frost + PHI's 1st round pick (2020).

It's fair value on both sides. PHI lose a guy they don't want to in Myers, which needs to happen to get a high end guy like Laine. Still, I don't think WIN does this perticular trade, considering they want a 2nd line C at least for Laine...even PHI hesitate, since they'll be in cap hell next season (2021-2022) trying to resign Hart, Laine, Sanheim, Niskanen, Laughton...
Forum: Armchair-GM10 sept. 2018 à 13 h 49
Sujet: Starting Line Up
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>They just paid that price for Pacioretty and he is only going to play on their 2nd line... ouch.. Guess that's a good thing though</div></div>

I can easily see Max starting on the 2nd line and bumping R.Smith off of that first line after 10-15 games. Chemestry is an important thing, sure, but Pac's 3 times better than R.Smith and would complément Willy and Marchy way better. But! Having a true sniper on each of your 2 first line (Karlsson &amp; Pacioretty) is also very enticing. Remember that Kessel plays mostly on the 2nd and 3rd line, P.Kane played on the 2nd line for a long time, Malkin always played 2nd line center, N.Backstrom is a 2nd line center, P.Laine plays on the second line, M.Barzal was a 2nd line center last year, so on so forth
Forum: Armchair-GM18 août 2018 à 10 h 50
Sujet: see how this works
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>clark</b></div><div></div></div>

Quoting: jp_harvey
There's no signs showing us that Marner will be a bust.
if we're going be stats. Marner fits in well with right wingers 6.7m Pasterak and 7.5m Taresenko assuming Marner goes about 25/50 for75 points. an agent will bring in Draisaitl comparison of course at 8.5m,,,but that isn't the norm. then Dubas counters with hart candidate winger marchand at 6.1m


Marchand became the players he is (offensively) at 28 years of age...Marner is at 20 years of age...apples and oranges

Signing an 8 years contract at age 28 (thru age 36) is sure to see the AAV drop significantly in the latter years of it. If you sign it at age 21, though, you lock all the prime years of the player, which cost a lot and the AAV doesn't drop because of the final 2-3 years...

You're not comparing close to the same situation.

After taking a closer look, J.Gaudreau is a player that fits pretty well the situation of Marner, except he was 2 years older when signing his contract, wasn't a top5 overall picks (like it or not, it still matters for the contract after the ELC), &amp; surely had less GP than Marner when signing his contract (160 for J.G. &amp; 159 for M.M. right now).

So Marner will be compared to Gaudreau 9.25% cap and might get a bit more (9.5-9.6%?). All in all, 9.5% cap amounts to 7.55M$ in '18-'19 or 7.88M$ in '19-'20 (cap at 83M$). So maybe 8 years at 7.75M$ is what he ends up getting.
Forum: Armchair-GM18 août 2018 à 10 h 45
Sujet: see how this works
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DJSums17</b></div><div>The only problem with that argument is that Draistel wanted the money and he got over payed to play on a s**t team. Which are 2 big differences with Toronto and Marner situation. 1 Marner has said publicly that he'd take less to keep the team together (so did Nylander and Matthews and Tavares took less to come here too) 2 Toronto isn't a s**t team so they shouldn't have to pay extra to keep superstars cause they want to stay. Especially ones that are coming off ELC.</div></div>

Draisaitl signed his contract after the Oilers lost in the 7th game of the 2nd round of the 2017 NHL playoffs (they had 103pts that season, finished 4th in the West &amp; 7th in the league). Talbot receiving Vezina considerations, McDavid winning the Hart +Art Ross, L.D. getting 77pts + 16pts in 13GP in the playoffs...they were viewed by many as Stanley Cup contenders for the 2017-2018 season, in the summer of 2017 &amp; in early october/november...s****y team my a$$.

It isn't a good argument since both teams were/are comparable at the moment L.D. signed his contract (2017 for EDM) and right now (2018 for TOR).
Forum: Armchair-GM18 août 2018 à 10 h 12
Sujet: see how this works
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>clark</b></div><div>we'll see, marner at 7m would put him in the top 10 right wingers in the league 8.5m would put him in the top three or four. that's a lot for any player coming his elc. SHOULD he get 8.5m, maybe Dubas gets fired for that.</div></div>

There's no signs showing us that Marner will be a bust. GM's always have the choice of giving a player short or long term. Sometimes, the bridge contract ends up costing a lot for teams so that's why you see teams signing players max term to avoid playing more in 2-3 years time. Also, you can't expect a player to sign for less than his market value just because you want him to. There's always the possibility that the player accept less money to help out the team, but it doesn't happens all that much. The agent's job is to find comparative and start the conversation with those players contracts. You need arguments (very strong ones), if you're Dubas, to counter Marner's agent points...And I really don't know what he could say to counter that Draisaitl comparison except that he plays wings not center (L.D. did too when he signed his contract, he played McDavid wings for most of that season). L.D. had 137pts in 191GP (0.717pt/game) when he signed his contract. M.M. currently has 130pts in 159GP (0.818pt/game). Let's say he has a modest 2018-2019 season (by his standard) and ends up with 62pts in 79 games. He'd be at 192pts in 238GP (0.807pt/game). This is a lot more points and more than half a season more of experience than L.D. Add to that that advanced stats doesn't put one player on top of the other...How could Dubas NOT acknowledge that this comparison is valid, thus is the starting point of their negociations?!?
Forum: Armchair-GM18 août 2018 à 9 h 56
Sujet: Karlsson to tampa
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>clark</b></div><div>it seem to be the new basis of so trades on this site. players on expiring contract seem to have the same trading value as a player with four year contract.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Larkinisking</b></div><div>Exactly, I guess if you're the best D man in the league on an expiring contract. You're still worth a bundle. And unfortunately it doesn't work quite that way.</div></div>

Yeah things have changed very fast. 2-3 seasons ago, he would have fetch a huge package for his team. Now, though, a player like that will fetch a decent roster player (an inbetweener 2nd/3rd line player or #4-5 d-man) + a top prospect + 1st round pick. This is still a lot, but not nearly as much as it used to be for a top player like Karlsson. And this is what they would get by trading him in the next 2-3 months, tops. After that, the return will deminish.