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Foppa21

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9 janv. 2017
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Avalanche du Colorado
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Forum: Armchair-GM25 juill. 2022 à 15 h 51
Forum: Armchair-GM22 juill. 2022 à 13 h 57
Sujet: My favorite 2C and a Nuke clone
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qwertymann</b></div><div>Kadri is the only player that bares any resemblance to Horvat or Girard. And with that one player, all we have agreed on is that he was less valuable at the time of his trade than Horvat is now. But you did not prove that Girard is more valuable to an NHL team than Horvat is.</div></div>

I have attempted to do so, but historical trades involving a top-4 defenseman signed to a 5 year team-friendly deal are few and far between. The closest comparison will likely be the Chychrun trade (when it inevitably happens), and the rumors there are two 1sts, a top prospect, and a good young player. Chychrun is no doubt better than Girard, but the term in those contracts clearly carries value in today's NHL and it is extremely difficult to quantify without comparables. Jones is likely the closest behind Chychrun, which we both agreed was too expensive. The question then is how much did the Hawks overpay and can we then compare that to the packages I referenced for Horvat (a 1st and a good young prospect)? Even if you don't consider Reinhart or Buchnevich the same players, that is arguably the going price for a top-6 forward. At a high-level, even if you took out one of the 1st round picks that Chicago paid, a defenseman still appears to be considered more valuable than a forward.

As for my initial comment, you will have to forgive the posturing, but it gets old seeing Girard so undervalued. Bit of a hot take on my part.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 juill. 2022 à 13 h 20
Sujet: My favorite 2C and a Nuke clone
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qwertymann</b></div><div>You keep moving the goalposts on our conversation. The discussion (debate) is that Girard is more valuable than Horvat, not that "Girard is less valuable than either of those guys." You have NOT provided reason to say that Girard is more valuable than Horvat, unequivocally. All you've done is bring up a bunch of players that have nothing to do with either player in our discussion.</div></div>

Neither of us is qualified whatsoever to establish the value of these players on their own, so I'm attempting to establish a frame of reference for our conversation using previously agreed to deals. What I HAVE done is provided reference points for valuing Horvat and Girard, which from my vantage point, favors Girard. Though you seem to be doing all you can to ignore that fact and coming up with excuses (Girard's size, Kadri and Horvat not the same player, etc.) as to why those reference points somehow don't apply.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 juill. 2022 à 13 h 9
Sujet: My favorite 2C and a Nuke clone
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qwertymann</b></div><div>Okay so basically none of these players mentioned have anything to do with Horvat. Admittedly, Kadri is the best comparable but was like 1.5/2 years older than Bo. Bo is a legit goal scorer in addition to being one of the best faceoff centermen in the league. Aside from Kadri's outlier season this past year, Bo is the superior player. But since one of the things that sets him apart from the crowd is his finishing ability.

Goals/82 Games played in previous 4 seasons before trade
Kadri = 25.5
Reinhart (who is NOT a full time center) = 26.8
Buchnevich (who is NOT a center) = 22.4

Horvat = 29.3.

The Seth Jones return was HIGH the moment it happened and everyone knew it, also not the same kind of under-sized defender that Girard is. Chiarot is a 6'3 234lb stay-at-home defender, I dont think I need to point out he is a different kind of defender than Girard.</div></div>

That's my bad on Buchnevich. I was looking through the past three years of trades for comparables and thought I'd remembered him as a C. As for Horvat and Kadri comparable, they're more similar than you think:

Points Per Game: 0.69 (Kadri) vs. 0.64 (Horvat)
Goals Per Game: 0.30 (Kadri) vs. 0.30 (Horvat)
Corsi %: 51.5% (Kadri) vs. 48.6% (Horvat)

They're legit the same player aside from age and a slight edge to Horvat in faceoffs.

As for defensive comparables, it could not be more challenging to find a comparable trade for Girard. If you're arguing that size somehow plays an enormous role in value, then sure, go for it. As for how they compare statistically though, Girard is right there with those guys on Corsi %, points per game, and takeaways. He's also far and away the better zone exit player. We can definitely agree on the Jones overpay though, that's for sure; hence why I argued the value was somewhere in between. Still not hearing an argument as to why Girard is less valuable than either of those guys though.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 juill. 2022 à 12 h 37
Sujet: My favorite 2C and a Nuke clone
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jedihonesy</b></div><div>It has to do with our situation though. We have the ability to re-sign Horvat and we most definitely will unless he wants to leave. So it really isn't trading a rental from our perspective if we plan on signing him. That's why his value to us is much higher than Girard Kaut and a 1st, and if we trade him under these circumstances we will want a high quality piece in return that will fit into our roster that makes sense, which would be new hook. COL needs a 2C and Van doesnt need to trade Horvat, so we have leverage and therefore we ask for very good pieces in return.</div></div>

Then argue that it's not a fit, not that Girard is somehow that much lower in value than Horvat. See my post above regarding similar trades.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 juill. 2022 à 12 h 33
Sujet: My favorite 2C and a Nuke clone
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qwertymann</b></div><div>Im not making any argument or the sort, brother. You said VAN would be lucky to get Girard for Horvat, straight up. Directly, after saying the VAN fan base was overvaluing its player. Using a convoluted trade from the past that has nothing to do with the 1-for-1 you brought up is weird. The burden-of-proof is on you to support your claim that Girard is more valuable than Horvat (because VAN would be "lucky" to swap players).</div></div>

Haha fair enough. I disagree with the fact that the Kadri trade has nothing to do with this one since Horvat and Kadri are nearly identical in many respects, but hey, your call.

<strong>Comparable Center Trades: </strong>
2021: Sam Reinhart to Florida for Devon Levi &amp; a 1st to Buffalo (signing rights)
2021: Pavel Buchnevich to St. Louis for Sammy Blais &amp; a 2nd to New York (signing rights)

Given that Horvat has one year left on his deal, let's argue he's valued at a blue chip prospect and a low-first/high second.

<strong>Comparable Defense Trades: </strong>
2022: Ben Chiarot (pending UFA) to Florida for Ty Smilanic, a '23 1st, and a '22 4th
2021: Seth Jones (1 year remaining), '21 1st, and '22 6th to Chicago for Adam Boqvist, '21 1st, '21 2nd, and a '22 1st to Columbus

Now one could argue Seth Jones is more valuable that he plays on the right side (which Girard is capable of), but given Girard's term, let's say his value is somewhere between Chiarot and Jones.

Feel like that's a fair review of the respective values, no?
Forum: Armchair-GM22 juill. 2022 à 12 h 7
Sujet: My favorite 2C and a Nuke clone
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qwertymann</b></div><div>L.O.L. did you just make that comment after saying VAN would be lucky to get Girard for Horvat, 1-for-1?? Talk about overvaluing your players. This is why its tough to discuss Hockey with American fan bases.</div></div>

Let's have a look, shall we? We'll use the Barrie/Kadri trade as a model since Horvat is such a similar player. In that trade, the Avs got Kadri, Rosen, and a 3rd in exchange for Barrie, Kerfoot, and a 6th. Kadri had 3 years remaining on his deal with Barrie only having one year left. In this trade, Horvat has one year left whereas Girard is signed for the next 5 years on a team-friendly deal ($1m more than Gudbranson, lol). Girard is far and away better than Barrie, and the term in his contract holds immense value in this flat cap world. Horvat is no doubt valuable, but arguing that he is a 1st and a prospect more valuable than Girard is laughable.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 juill. 2022 à 11 h 50
Sujet: My favorite 2C and a Nuke clone
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jedihonesy</b></div><div>we want RHD that aren't small and can play shutdown too. Marin Kaut is 22 and hasn't made the NHL yet. 1st will be late too. This doesn't do it for Horvat because it doesn't fit our needs at all. If u want Horvat ur sending us Newhook or Byram and a 1st since we can sign him next year and there's no pressure to move him. You could try and get Miller without paying as much since he is older and maybe we cant sign him, but u won't be able to sign him either so its a pure rental. But the avs roster would be really good with miller at 2C. It would probably be worth it to get Miller cause avs will probably win the cup again and then new hook will be ready for 2C the year after</div></div>

Is it just common for Canadian fan bases to overrate their players? Genuine question here. I find that it's predominantly isolated to the Habs and Leafs bases, but you thinking that one year of Horvat would get you Byram or Newhook is asinine to me.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 juill. 2022 à 13 h 13
Sujet: Tkachuk doesnt work
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Yeah I’d agree that he’s underrated, but I think that’s because Byram seems to be better than him now, so people see Girard get pushed down to the 3rd pair and value him as a 3rd pair guy, which isn’t fair. I’m not sold that he’s a true first pair guy either though, despite an amazing 20-21, because he regressed significantly this year (especially defensively, but he also put up fewer points in 67 games last year than he did the year before in 48 games). I do understand that some of that was playing with Jack Johnson though, so I think calling him a good #3 on a solid contract is fair.</div></div>

Yeah, I'd have to look at the stats, but he was with Jack Johnson for a good portion of the year. I think he could thrive on the top pair provided he had a partner that matched his play style, but that obviously won't happen on the Avs barring an injury.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 juill. 2022 à 12 h 34
Sujet: Tkachuk doesnt work
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>2nd pair defensemen that are small and shoot left are not valued higher than first line centres that are elite at both ends of the ice. Using rate stats is dumb at the best of times, but especially when 2 seasons were shortened by covid. I could say Girard’s career high is 34 points. What I’ll say instead is that over the past four seasons, Lindholm averages 33 goals and 74 points per 82 games, on top of his elite defensive play, so last season, while it was his career best, is not really much of an anomaly because he’s been good for years and is now in his prime. And I never said Girard’s contract wasn’t good, but it’s not a massive steal. He outperformed it by 700k last year, so he was good but not great. Lindholm’s, as I pointed out, is one of the best value contracts in the league.</div></div>

Fair enough. Again, not arguing that Lindholm isn't a great player here, just saying that he's the type of player I'd be targeting in a Girard trade. If it's futures, then it better be some solid pieces. In my own opinion, I think that Girard is consistently underrated among defensemen, yet everyone seems to want him for peanuts. Hopefully that helps you understand where myself and other Avs fans are coming from.