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DripBayless

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Oilers d'Edmonton
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Forum: Armchair-GM6 mars 2022 à 15 h 8
Forum: Armchair-GM26 févr. 2022 à 14 h 40
Forum: Armchair-GM12 janv. 2022 à 16 h 30
Forum: Armchair-GM10 janv. 2022 à 16 h 35
Forum: Armchair-GM31 déc. 2021 à 13 h 8
Forum: Armchair-GM11 déc. 2021 à 13 h 41
I think you're on the right track but you've overlooked previous lessons learned: Nugent-Hopkins hasn't been a very effective winger for McDavid historically.

We saw the duo play often last year together and while the shot metrics at evens were pretty good (54.5 CF%), lines with McDavid that didn't feature RNH as his dedicated LW cashed in on more of those shots by a noticeable margin (51.3 GF% with versus 60.3 GF%). I would point out that the duo had an xGF% of 59.2% so some bad puck luck was clearly at play. Expanding that window out to consider the entirety of their careers played together shows a very similar phenomenon: they should be dominant together but the on-ice results are only a hair above average.

It's a line combination I'd consider only if:
1. The losing streak continues to drag on
2. Foegele finds chemistry with Draisaitl

I'd prefer to run a top six of:
Foegele - McDavid - Puljujarvi
RNH - Draisaitl - Hyman

Hyman and Puljujarvi are virtually interchangeable but the 97-13 connection has always seen puck and shot domination from the top line (the second Jesse starts converting he's going to cost a fortune). I would hope Hyman being a stronger checker than Yamamoto frees up more opportunity for Nugent-Hopkins to utilize his shot more. Foegele needs the jump start badly and the known chemistry between RNH and Draisaitl maintains Edmonton's ability to still run two scoring lines at even strength. Pulling too much off that second line only stands to water down what Draisaitl has to work with.

Half of the problem with the Oilers' inability to find that permanent chemistry with McDavid is that he doesn't need someone dedicated to passing to him: that's either a defenceman's job or nobody's at all as Connor continues to show that his biggest strength lies in being the fastest puck carrier in hockey history. All he needs really is traffic and a shooter: if we look to the Maroon - McDavid - Draisaitl line and where their success came from, it was as simple as having a cerebral, damn fine shooter accompanied by someone willing to make a career out of going to the net. I hate how "Hockey 101" the breakdown ends up being BUT if Puljujarvi continues to learn how to weaponize his shot and where he is on the ice, you have half of the puzzle figured out already. Promoting Foegele to that #1LW spot is to strictly see if he can be a better Pat Maroon.

Equally, keeping Draisaitl paired with other transporters and players that can recreate what McDavid does on the ice via committee I think is the key to unlocking the Oilers' second line: if the duo of Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman can keep possession of the puck akin to how McDavid does (granted, by a totally different style; you're looking at the combination of forechecking and straight playmaking here as opposed to just being literal Jesus with the puck), then Leon can and will continue to capitalize at the rate he does.

I think the bottom six remains hopeless for the interim, but I'd consider running 7 defencemen for the foreseeable future anyways. I don't think this club can or should try justifying having more than one of Kassian, Ryan, Shore, and Turris in the lineup at a time. Like two at a time is pushing it. Hate them or love them for what they bring, the math is clearly showing that they're getting obliterated at 5v5 and it'll continue to be an issue until either the coach is replaced or Holland smartens up and brings in *something* of substance for that pair of lines. I would happily run a third line of McLeod - Sceviour - Yamamoto and just forgo any minutes to the fourth line, but given how unlikely that would be, I think the best course of action is to keep those two lines in the blender until something learns to stick.

Pairings are perfectly fine, if I'm running 7D and Russell's out for a bit, I would imagine you could split Broberg and Keith at evens until the old greybeard has his legs underneath him again. I think Koskinen's career as an Oilers goaltender is on the line tonight against the Hurricanes. If it's the same old tune, he never plays another game as the starter for this club after tonight unless something happens to Skinner. Smith coming off of IR will likely coincide with a Koskinen trade.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 oct. 2021 à 17 h 38
Forum: Armchair-GM4 oct. 2021 à 17 h 2
Forum: Armchair-GM4 août 2021 à 7 h 38
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Do you not understand the words "right now"?

There's no comparison there.</div></div>

Not only is Gibson not elite, he doesn't even deserve a starting job in the NHL.

Among the top-45 goalies by 5v5 minutes or by GP since 2018, John Gibson ranks:

37th by save percentage (<a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/goalies?reportType=game&amp;dateFrom=2019-01-01&amp;dateTo=2021-05-15&amp;gameType=2&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,57&amp;sort=savePct&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=50" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">nhl.com</a>)
34th by 5v5 save percentage (<a href="http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=g&amp;rate=n&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=S&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=2500&amp;gpfilt=gpdate&amp;fd=2019-01-01&amp;td=2021-05-15&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">naturalstattrick.com</a>)
33rd by high danger save percentage (<a href="http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=g&amp;rate=n&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=S&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=2500&amp;gpfilt=gpdate&amp;fd=2019-01-01&amp;td=2021-05-15&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">naturalstattrick.com</a>)

He's making $6.4M for the next 6 seasons. How is that not a cap dump? He's not even as good as Mikko Koskinen, who ranks ahead of Gibson in 2 of the 3 categories. I can't isolate half a season of Evolving Hockey, but for the past 2 seasons (again, for the 45 most-played goalies only) ranked by GSAx, Koskinen ranks ahead of Gibson (22nd vs 33rd). (<a href="https://evolving-hockey.com/stats/goalie_standard/?_inputs_&amp;std_gl_str=%22All%22&amp;std_gl_adj=%22No%20Adjustment%22&amp;std_gl_fa=%221784%22&amp;std_gl_info=%22No%22&amp;std_gl_range=%22Seasons%22&amp;std_gl_table=%22On-Ice%22&amp;std_gl_span=%22Regular%22&amp;std_gl_group=%22All%22&amp;std_gl_dft_yr=%22All%22&amp;std_gl_players=null&amp;std_gl_team=%5B%22All%22%2C%22ANA%22%2C%22EDM%22%5D&amp;std_gl_season=%5B%2220202021%22%2C%2220192020%22%5D&amp;std_gl_age1=%2217%22&amp;std_gl_age2=%2250%22" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">evolving-hockey.com</a>)

Expecting three 1st round picks is laughable.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 août 2021 à 13 h 38
Among the top-45 goalies by 5v5 minutes or by GP since 2018, John Gibson ranks:

37th by save percentage (<a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/goalies?reportType=game&amp;dateFrom=2019-01-01&amp;dateTo=2021-05-15&amp;gameType=2&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,57&amp;sort=savePct&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=50" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">nhl.com</a>)
34th by 5v5 save percentage (<a href="http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=g&amp;rate=n&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=S&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=2500&amp;gpfilt=gpdate&amp;fd=2019-01-01&amp;td=2021-05-15&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">naturalstattrick.com</a>)
33rd by high danger save percentage (<a href="http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=g&amp;rate=n&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=S&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=2500&amp;gpfilt=gpdate&amp;fd=2019-01-01&amp;td=2021-05-15&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">naturalstattrick.com</a>)

He's making $6.4M for the next 6 seasons. What exactly are you expecting from him over those seasons? You're trading for him as if he's a perennial Vezina candidate when if fact he's been no better than Mikko Koskinen*, whom you treat as a cap dump.

*In fact, Koskinen ranks ahead of Gibson in 2 of the 3 categories, it could be argued that he's been the better goalie. I can't isolate half a season of Evolving Hockey, but for the past 2 seasons (again, for the 45 most-played goalies only) ranked by GSAx, Koskinen ranks ahead of Gibson (22nd vs 33rd). (<a href="https://evolving-hockey.com/stats/goalie_standard/?_inputs_&amp;std_gl_str=%22All%22&amp;std_gl_adj=%22No%20Adjustment%22&amp;std_gl_fa=%221784%22&amp;std_gl_info=%22No%22&amp;std_gl_range=%22Seasons%22&amp;std_gl_table=%22On-Ice%22&amp;std_gl_span=%22Regular%22&amp;std_gl_group=%22All%22&amp;std_gl_dft_yr=%22All%22&amp;std_gl_players=null&amp;std_gl_team=%5B%22All%22%2C%22ANA%22%2C%22EDM%22%5D&amp;std_gl_season=%5B%2220202021%22%2C%2220192020%22%5D&amp;std_gl_age1=%2217%22&amp;std_gl_age2=%2250%22" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">evolving-hockey.com</a>)
Forum: Armchair-GM6 juin 2021 à 22 h 59
Forum: Armchair-GM13 avr. 2021 à 17 h 0
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DripBayless</b></div><div>I think you have fair points all around so I guess, I'd move to my next question. Would you prefer Team A or Team B:

<strong>Team A:</strong>

Nuge(6M)/McDavid/Puljujarvi
Hall(6M)/Draisaitl/Yamamoto
McLeod/Lowry(3M)/Kassian
Shore(750K)/Khaira(1.2M)/Archibald
Benson (750K)/Marody (750K)

Nurse/Barrie (5.5M)
Klefbom/Larsson (3.5M)
Oleksiak (2M)/Bouchard
Lagesson

Driedger (3.5M)/Smith (1.5M)

Trades: Koskinen with 2M retained to any team, Bear and Neal to Seattle

<strong>Team B:</strong>

Nuge(6M)/McDavid/Puljujarvi
Buchnevich(4.5M)/Draisaitl/Yamamoto
Benson/McLeod/Kassian
Shore(750K)/Khaira(1.2M)/Archibald
Neal/Marody (750K)

Nurse/Bear
Klefbom/Larsson (3.5M)
Oleksiak (2M)/Bouchard
Lagesson

Driedger (3.5M)/Smith(1.5M)

Trades: Koskinen with 2M retained

I honestly prefer team A more. Bigger, can all skate well, and put up points. Yes Bear is good, I think we can also use him as a trade chip to fill some of our needs like clearing cap to make way for a top 6 F or add a goalie. I wouldn't mind Buchnevich on Team A as well but I just think Hall has more of a capability to carry his own line than Buchnevich. If we ever play Draisaitl and McDavid together, Nuge can't carry his own line. We almost need another forward who's just as or better than him.</div></div>

I like aspects of both teams, but I think Kulikov represents more value per dollar than Oleksiak. There's the addition of having additional locker room chemistry from the playoff run he'll have with the Oilers this season. I also think we can move Neal without subtracting from our current roster. Draft picks over the next two years matter so much less than icing a winning roster.

I'm also in the camp of believing that moving Koskinen is always going to be at a loss, and I put a lot of credence in his ability to outperform Smith next season. I think it's important that we recognize that what we're seeing from Smith is not the norm and that he could regress at any time. I appreciate what he's done this season but bringing him back next year will definitely be a mistake. It wasn't supposed to work out this year, we got lucky that it did.

My vision is more like this: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/2341164
Forum: Armchair-GM13 avr. 2021 à 15 h 53
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DripBayless</b></div><div>1. yeah we could separate them - but I'd still like the other top 6 forward to have centre experience. When we play Draisaitl and McDavid, it's the best line throughout the league. But yes, I do believe to win the cup, we might have to separate them. Nuge can't drive his own line, so I'd like to get another top 6 forward who can.
2. 2 rookies playing together just screams like DoD to me. IMO, we give Holloway a year or two in the AHL, and maybe one of Benson or McLeod on 3LW - I prefer McLeod because he has speed. Still need a 3C thoguh.
3. That's a tough comment. I definitely think Barrie is one of the factors why we're playing real well today. I'm not saying Bouchard will not be as good, but I'm saying I'd like to hold onto both for maybe 2 more years.
4. I like Barrie &gt; Larsson &gt; Bouchard before Bear. HOWEVER - Bear can kill penalties and is a solid first pass. I've seen a couple proposals where we send Bear to Seattle for them to take Neal - that would clear roughly 8M. I wouldn't be opposed to that. That'll open up more options for goalie and top 6 forward</div></div>

All of Barrie's underlying numbers insinuate he's being carried by Nurse. Bear, Jones, and Bouchard (small sample size alert) are winning the on-ice shot differential and outchancing Barrie at every facet except for PPP/60 and GF. Signing Barrie at the expense of Bear would be a disastrous move. All Barrie currently does for the Oilers is block Bouchard. His defensive numbers are actual garbage and I fully believe his $5.5M in this case is better suited elsewhere on the roster.

Bear is comfortably eating Barrie's 5v5 minutes and Bouchard offers more on the powerplay: he can make that first pass to McDavid and quarterback just as well (he mastered it in junior, the AHL, and in the Allsvenskan) but comes with a booming shot. Bear, Klefbom, and Nurse will all be vying for some powerplay time too. Barrie's a luxury, and I don't think Edmonton has the horses on the back end to afford his inability to defend. This setup, or one with an extended Kulikov &gt; Lagesson, is still very much defence by committee. Using Barrie's money to add offense up front affords Edmonton the ability to match his offensive contribution in the top six while upgrading on the defence as a whole by using a slightly more defensively apt Bouchard in his stead. It's less addition by subtraction but more addition through distribution. The combination of say, Buchnevich and Bouchard, may cost as much as Barrie, but offers the same offence (if not more) plus extra defence. Mathematically, the team is better without him, even though his efforts haven't gone unnoticed this season. Factor in that mild upgrade to defence with a substantial upgrade to both the goaltender and the strength of Edmonton's top 2 or 3 lines, and all of a sudden there's a quality reduction in both shots and goals against. His money and presence on the roster blocks a genuine improvement to the team as a whole because he's so one-dimensional: he comes with pure offense at the sacrifice of defence. That money covers the spread on two players who can bring both elements.

I don't necessarily think a Benson-McLeod-Kassian line (or Holloway&gt;Benson) would be as defensively inept as you're anticipating: Benson and McLeod are both primary facets of Bakersfield's PK. If they can see a bias towards offensive zone starts and the 4th line eats more of the defensive zone starts, I think things should balance out quite nicely. It's very important to remember that if Edmonton has a fully-loaded top-six, teams have to spread their best talents across those two forward groups to prevent getting eaten alive. If the trio of Shore-Khaira-Archibald is suffocating enough to nullify whatever depth offense an opposing team has, that rookie line can feast on easy matchups against opposing 4th lines.

I think Bear's metrics since he returned from his most recent concussion are indicative of a gem. Beyond the first three shaky games he had, he's posted CF% and GF% numbers consistently above 50% (only Oiler defender to do so in the past 10 games) and he routinely hits the 60% benchmark. He's a very quiet and effective defender and I truly believe that he's a piece the Oilers must hold onto for as long as possible. The fact that he's shown the ability to pair perfectly with Nurse, exceed expectations, and post the numbers he has suggests that Edmonton found one of the most effective modern defenders late in 2015. There are many names in this organization I'd move before Bear: remember during the DoD when we didn't have right-handed puck-moving defenders? Bear and Bouchard should be virtually untouchable unless at a steal of a deal.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 avr. 2021 à 14 h 35