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DragonRaptorHybrid

Sensible Commentary
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Penguins de Pittsburgh
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Forum: NHL24 juill. 2021 à 0 h 58
Forum: NHL24 juill. 2021 à 0 h 39
Forum: Montreal Canadiens24 juill. 2021 à 0 h 27
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensonfire</b></div><div>You think they'll renounce his rights?

I have a feeling Marc Bergevin is going to double down and sign him to an ELC within 12 months.



Interesting thing is that Chicago was picking right after Montreal at 31.

Did Marc Bergevin do his old club and his old buddy, Stan Bowman, a favour by not making Bowman face the choice of selecting Maillloux?

With all the things going on with the Hawks?




The fact that Mailloux specifically said on twitter he didn't want to be picked and the Habs pick him anyway seems senseless.




Is this some odd power move by Bergevin against Mailloux where the Habs control his NHL rights until he turns 27 and then he busts out?




The Habs put out a bilingual statement on twitter right away after picking him, which indicates to me that Bergevin was planning and plotting to take him for quite a while.




All we can do is speculate until either Mailloux signs his ELC or the Habs renounce his rights.</div></div>i would honestly imagine that the incoming PR hellstorm tomorrow morning might make Bergevin blink. it certainly made the Coyotes blink, after all, after the fallout from the Miller selection came down. then again, this is a 1st-round pick we're talking about, so there might be more truculence involved.

i would not personally try to read any sort of conspiracy out of this whole shebang, considering it <em>just</em> happened. Occam's Razor is also your friend: the simplest explanation is often the right one.
Forum: NHL24 juill. 2021 à 0 h 19
Forum: Montreal Canadiens24 juill. 2021 à 0 h 11
Forum: Montreal Canadiens23 juill. 2021 à 23 h 51
Forum: NHL Trades23 juill. 2021 à 17 h 39
Forum: NHL Trades23 juill. 2021 à 17 h 16
Forum: Vancouver Canucks23 juill. 2021 à 12 h 41
Jim Benning <em>says</em> he'll match any offer sheet for Pettersson, but does the accounting really add up? Let's see.

As of today, July 23, 2021, the Vancouver Canucks have $15,174,131 in cap space, according to CapFriendly. Their estimated cap hit includes all of their currently signed players, Micheal Ferland and Jay Beagle (currently listed as on LTIR), Loui Eriksson's remaining cap hit after being buried in the minors, Roberto Luongo's cap recapture penalty, and the $648,780 in bonus overage penalties they incurred this past season.

Let's say... the Seattle Kraken put in an offer sheet for Elias Pettersson of 5 years at $8,221,463 (the maximum they can offer sheet for and only have to pony up a 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rd, before it becomes 2 1sts, instead). This contract, incidentally, would probably bring Pettersson right up to UFA status. If the Canucks match it, that leaves them with $6,952,668 in cap space.

But! The Canucks have 17 roster players signed. If they get Pettersson and Quinn Hughes signed, that only puts them at 19, and they would ideally like to be able to have 23 players on their roster. If they want to skimp <em>super-hard</em>, they could sign 4 players at league-minimum salary, $750,000. But that's now an extra $3,000,000 that gets subtracted away from your remaining cap space. Meaning! That, if the Canucks matched this hypothetical offer sheet, that would realistically leave them with $3,952,668 to hand over to Hughes (who is, realistically, worth more than $3,952,668/year). This is also to say nothing of signing Jason Dickinson, whom Benning ponied up a 3rd-round pick for and would ideally not alienate by only giving him a league-minimum contract.

I don't really see this ending well if Jim Benning tries to match such an offer sheet. Ostensibly, Quinn Hughes is a 10.2(c) player, meaning that he's stuck between a rock and a hard place if the Canucks try to offer him a bridge deal that's under $4M/year. Still, Benning shouldn't be alienating the linchpin of the Canucks' defense like that. Hughes is clearly worth at least $8M/year, if Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Chabot's contracts are anything to go by. Possible outcomes:

1) Hughes takes a bridge deal of sub-$4M/year for, I dunno, 1 or 2 years, and then demands $10M+ on his next contract (a.k.a. the "P.K. Subban special"). I guess it works in the short term, but that's just kicking the can down the road.

2) Benning plays hardball with Hughes' camp, and he ends up sitting out until just before the deadline to be able to play at all for the season (a.k.a. the "William Nylander special"). Hughes' cap hit goes down for this year but then balloons next year, thus also kicking the can down the road.

3) Benning has to scramble to dump any and all contracts that would get in the way of signing Hughes to a fair contract. He may or may not find any takers, <em>or</em> he has to pay a hilariously exorbitant price to dump said contracts (this is where I think the Coyotes should maneuver back into the 1st round this year by taking Loui Eriksson's contract off of their hands in exchange for the 9th overall pick).

Either way, things are already bad for Benning and Friends, and an offer sheet would, imo, speed up the process.
Forum: NHL Trades22 juill. 2021 à 18 h 11
Forum: NHL Trades18 juill. 2021 à 16 h 42
Forum: NHL Trades18 juill. 2021 à 12 h 6
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>capfriendlyaccount</b></div><div>Didn't cost him too much. Net loss of a conditional 2nd and 3rd to clear up 11 mil. That's a lot less than I would have expected.</div></div>let's take a look at the list of scenarios under which Lou could have gotten rid of Ladd's contract, in order of desirability:
1) trade Ladd to the Coyotes, get draft picks back
2) trade Ladd to the Coyotes, get no draft picks back
3) trade Ladd to the Coyotes and sweeten the deal with draft picks, get draft picks back
4) trade Ladd to the Coyotes and sweeten the deal with draft picks, get no draft picks back
5) buy out Ladd

1) didn't happen because Ladd has no trade value. 2) didn't happen because Ladd's contract is too onerous for that, and he isn't just some AHL tweener schmuck. you'd think 3) would have been the idea, but, apparently, it didn't happen. 4) is what actually happened, and, well, 5) is a terrible option for Ladd's contract.

sure, Lou didn't burn a 1st-round pick (and i doubt Bill Armstrong would've gotten a 1st out of Lou, anyway), but asset management 101 says "having to burn extra assets to rid yourself of a toxic one is a bad situation to find yourself in." you can see that what happened was next to the worst-case scenario for dumping Ladd's contract. this is a Pyrrhic victory, at best, for the Islanders. "draft picks are magic beans" blah blah blah that's the sunk cost fallacy; Lou still burned <em>three picks</em> to get rid of Ladd's contract.
Forum: Site Discussion7 juill. 2021 à 17 h 39
Forum: NHL Signings18 juin 2021 à 23 h 40
Forum: Toronto Maple Leafs31 août 2020 à 18 h 25
Matt Murray for Jack Campbell.

The Leafs haven't had a trustworthy back-up goaltender to Frederik Andersen since... Curtis McElhinney, of all people, left town. The dude's consistently played in &gt;70% of the team's games since he got there, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's started to wear on him. They need a competent back-up to be able to fill in for games where Andersen can't play. Jack Campbell <em>might</em> be it, but I don't think anybody's that sold on the idea.

The Penguins are cutting salary and generally can't afford to pay both Murray and Tristan Jarry what they're worth. Sure, Murray's had a bad couple of seasons, but he also won 2 Stanley Cups as a rookie, and we saw the kind of leverage that got Cam Ward throughout his career in contract negotiations. The Penguins don't really have that kind of money to toss around at the moment. The consensus seems to be that everyone thinks Murray is the one leaving town at the moment, so the next question is, of course, where does he land?

Now, why would the Penguins want Jack Campbell (outside of the obvious "there's only room for 2 goalies on a roster")? A fairly easy answer: cost certainty. He's signed for 2 more years, and it's all base salary with no bonuses. The Penguins don't have to spend time in RFA negotiations with Campbell like they would with Murray and Jarry, and he'll ultimately be cheaper than whatever money they'd have to pay Murray.

Why would the Leafs want Matt Murray? A not-so-obvious answer. He's been kinda bad for the last couple of seasons, as previously mentioned, and, by bad, I mean <em>bad</em>.
But! He's clearly been good before, good enough to win 2 Stanley Cups (and also AHL Rookie of the Year, Goalie of the Year, as well as breaking the AHL shutout streak record).
And, of course, where did Matt Murray play junior hockey? With the Sault. Ste. Marie (now just Soo) Greyhounds. From 2011 to 2014. When Kyle Dubas and Sheldon Keefe were, respectively, the GM and head coach of the Greyhounds.

If there's anybody that knows Murray well enough to maybe help him get back to how good he used to be as a goaltender, it's Dubas and Keefe. And they might know something that we don't, enough for them to take a roll of the dice on it.
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