20 jun 2017
Deuxième équipe préférée
Coyotes de l'Arizona
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Hey, so with this I figure you don't know have a clue who Logan Brown is so I just wanna share something pretty cool.
Since 2010, the only 21 year old players with better season paces in the AHL than Brown are: Frank Vatrano (2015-2016; 1.528 PPG), Taylor Hall (2012-2013; 1.308 PPG), Drake Batherson (2019-2020; 1.227 PPG), Andrew Mangiapane (2017-2018; 1.179) and Devin Shore (2015-2016; 1.130 PPG). Brown's got 1.12 PPG. Before these seasons, Hall had played <em>in the NHL</em> for two seasons putting up <strong>95 points in 126 games</strong>, and both Vatrano and Shore came from college. Vatrano also played on a stupidly stacked Providence team (with Seth Griffith who was a star that year). Mangiapane in his previous year had 0.62 PPG and is now 24 and just put up a near 40 point pace in the NHL as a 6th rounder. Batherson in his previous year had 1.05 PPG and throughout his collective short stints in the NHL thus far has put up 0.44 PPG on really bad Sens teams. Brown put up 0.75 PPG in his first AHL season, and this year in the NHL put up 0.35 PPG on the freaking Senators. Of those guys in front of him, one was pretty consistently a 30-40 point guy before falling off (Shore), another is about a 40 point guy (Vatrano), one just became a 40 point guy (Mangiapane), and another is one of the highest scoring LWers in the NHL (Hall). Plus Batherson, who's widely considered to be one of the best players in the AHL right now, and one of the top prospects in the league (Wheeler just ranked him #18).
The point being that Brown has shown more than absolutely everybody in front of him except for Hall (and Batherson, but they're the same age so we'll see), and they all became about 40 point players in the NHL. He's been better than all of those guys, and comes from being an 11th OA. This is a guy who's been said to have a ceiling as a 1C, who's amongst the highest in all time AHL point paces before the age of 22. And in your trade, you've shipped him off to one of the best teams in the league for somebody who's (1) gotten progressively worse over the past three years, (2) has 5 years left at $5.2M despite currently being worth probably just above half of that, and (3) is 6 years older.
Lots of trading Smith to Ottawa lately, but there's not much and never has been any logic to it. If it's because of his contract, Ottawa is asking a heck of a lot more than the trash that is a 4th and a 6th. Nobody's taking on a bottom tier player paid like he's worth something for absolutely no beneficial pieces coming back. If it's because there's this idea that Sens need D, it's just not true. The Sens need <em>good</em> D, not overpaid guys that don't beat out the 11 guys they have vying for spots next year (Chabot, Zub, Zaitsev, Jaros, Wolanin, Reilly, Borowiecki, Brannstrom, Alsing, Lajoie and Thomson). So what's Ottawa getting out of this? Nada. The issue with this trade is that it's like "here, take our two overpaid players and we'll pay you with two more crappy players". It's not just you; every Edmonton fan on here thinks they can pawn off all of this trash with more and more and more trash.
On the back end, the Sens already have 6 guys that are NHL players to some degree (Chabot, Zub, Zaitsev, Wolanin, Jaros and Rielly), there's a good chance they re-sign Borowiecki making it 7, and they have 4 prospects expected to push sooner rather than later (Brannstrom, Lajoie, Alsing and Thomson). That makes for 11 guys, all of whom they'd rather play over an overpaid Russell and Benning, who's a third pairing guy at best (although I'd personally take either over Zaitsev; still that's 10 other guys). Up front, it's very much the exact same situation. They don't need a 4th liner like Khaira, they have like 6 of those already and a bunch of prospects they'd rather give time to. There's nothing in this for Ottawa, or any team you want to give your expensive trash to.
Seems Johnsson to Ottawa is a very common thing people like to do around here but it doesn't and hasn't ever made a whole lot of sense from Ottawa's perspective. He's good and it's a buy low situation, but the Sens have Tkachuk and Duclair above him on the left side, with potential to add Lafreniere or Stutzle (hell, even both) by the draft. They also will eventually introduce Formenton into the lineup, Balcers is still a wildcard as to where he ends up, Connor Brown has played the left side too, and one of Norris or Brown could find themselves moved to the wing depending on this draft. If Johnsson played on the right side, maybe, but there isn't much there otherwise. For a pick that's nearly a 2nd, the Sens likely target other needs either through trade or the draft. Their one and only position of depth is LW.
Basically, the Sens would buy low and then flip him right away to somebody who actually wants a high end 3rd line/fill-in 2nd line guy; Toronto would basically be better off doing that trade themselves.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SlickWilly</b></div><div>I mean he's a top forward prospect as of right now, but what that will translate to with Tkachuk and White already established as top 6 forwards is likely a bottom 6 role for Pinto as things stand right now. Lets say Ottawa lands 2 and 3 OA and take Byfield and Stutzle, the BPA. Your top 6 in 2021-2022 will probably look something like Stutzle-White-Tkachuk and Norris-Byfield-Batherson with Byfield switching with White whenever he proves ready. Pinto likely is too good for a bottom 6 role, so the smart distribution of resources says to trade him for a position of need or a top 6 upgrade in order to make them that much better going forward. Trading Pinto for a better top 6 forward makes the Sens that much better in the long run than hording him in the bottom 6 where he doesnt get the necessary playing time to fully develop</div></div>
Those are high expectations for White at this point, even though I'm a big fan of his. Only Tkachuk looks like a sure top 6 player; Batherson, Brown and Norris show that upside, and White and Formenton might have it in them, but they're no guarantees. Every single one of them can top out at middle 6ers. Pinto is right up there with that crowd. Depending on who you ask, he's top 5 but for sure top 10 in the organization. For me, he's likely 4th but I'm not very high on Brannstrom so at worst Pinto is 5th. As it stands right now, nobody is in the top 6 for the Sens outside of Tkachuk, so they're certainly not trading a top prospect for a third liner, a third pairing D, and a 7th while also giving up a 5th?