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Claebom

It Is Umlaut Season
Membre depuis
20 jun 2017
Équipe préférée
Sénateurs d'Ottawa
Deuxième équipe préférée
Wild du Minnesota
Messages dans les forums
539
Messages par jour
0.4
Sujets de discussion
28
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 3:29 pm
Sujet: Ideal line up next wek
I'd swap Tierney and Logan Brown.

Tierney is actually an absolute trainwreck offensively and defensively this season, we just haven't been talking about it. He passes the eye test at least, but the advanced metrics are abysmal. Hockeyviz has his isolated impact as -0.19 xGF/60 and +0.08 xGA/60, but our offense (xGF/60) at 5v5 is +18% compared to league average without and <a href="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWiThumb/2021/OTT/tiernch94" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">-23%</a> with while our defense (xGA/60) at 5v5 is +4% without and <a href="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWiThumb/2021/OTT/tiernch94" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">+25%</a> with. He's one of the worst players on our team according to the advanced metrics and would be better suited being as far away from Stützle and Batherson as possible. Stepan is significantly better based on his isolated impacts, somehow.

Conversely, Logan Brown has always had very strong numbers that rival Norris' through their NHL time despite having less favourable linemates and opportunity, plus he has chemistry with Batherson. If DJ Smith wasn't biased towards grinders (or players that can play that game) and gave Brown a leash as long as Norris, he'd likely have had just as much success. Since the start of 2019-2020, both have played 23 games; Brown has had 5 EV P and 3 PPP playing 11:45 ATOI whereas Norris has 6 EV P and 5 PPP playing 15:49 ATOI. Putting Brown between Stützle and Batherson finally gives him the chance he's always deserved and has rightfully earned, just never been given.

Besides, Tierney is better suited to play with Dzingel on the 4th who he's friends with and has played with in the past.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 3:04 pm
Sujet: Weedmaster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JumboFett</b></div><div>I hear you, but I also feel very strongly that EK65 should've never left OTT. That's his adopted home, and they did him dirty. This move would right a lot of wrongs, and be such a heart move for the OTT fans.</div></div>

While the sentiment is sweet and may still be true, that doesn't fix the hockey element and make a trade like this any better. It's just the sad reality of Erik Karlsson nowadays. Even if San Jose were to retain a full 50% of the contract and make Karlsson a $5.75M D-man, his current play isn't nearly worth that kind of deal. Karlsson is in cap dump territory, and so the Sens would be better off keeping Zaitsev and that 2nd.

Put simply, the Sens wouldn't be the ones adding picks in the deal there.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 fév à 17 h 14
Sujet: I want Nick Paul
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>Why would Ottawa trade him for that? He's way more valuable on the team. Ottawa really has no incentive to trade him unless they're getting really good value. He's shown this year he can play all situations in more than just a depth role, there's no reason he can't be a part of this team longer term.</div></div>

This right here is exactly it. He's 25 and playing very well; why would the Sens move him for an awful offer of a 4th and a low end prospect? They can just hang on to him and happily keep him around, or trade him to another team who will pay twice as much. A guy like Barclay Goodrow is a great example of what these kinds of guys go for; Barclay had 24 in 62 and was having a career year and went along with a 3rd for a 1st and Anthony Greco. Paul had 20 in 56 last year and has 8 in 20 this year so he's already more impressive than Goodrow has ever been. You can bet Ottawa is going to get more than a 4th and a low end prospect.

Or, again, they'll hang on to him and keep him around as a leader. It's a win win and there's no incentive to move him for anything other than an overpay.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 fév à 15 h 01
Sujet: Calgary fans what do you think
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sens65</b></div><div>I like White, but he has 29 points in his last 79 games, including only 9 goals.</div></div>

Which is decent considering his usage and dealing with injuries.

He's got 29 in his last 77 playing 15:35 a night in which he's never had a consistent linemate. His most common in the past two years at 5v5 has been Ennis, in which he spent 356 minutes with and 331 without. Tkachuk is next with 251 with, but he's spent 742 away from him. White's been used all over the lineup, either because DJ has no clue what he's doing with him or because he knows that White can be used everywhere with the same effective result. That's pretty crazy that in looking at two years, a player he played with for only part of one of those years is still leading in ice time with. Goes to show how little consistency White is given in his usage by the coaching staff. He's also been moved down to PP2 because Josh Norris is given free reign of PP1 despite his poor even strength play (until lately where he's stepped it up). White's point totals will take a hit as a result.

This year though, White is 1st on the team in CF% rel. and 3rd on the team in xGF% rel. (behind Tkachuk and Norris). His ixG/60 is 2nd on the team behind Brady, which is a stat Brady always dominates league wide. In fact, White's tied for 14th in the entire league of players who have played more than 50 minutes this season in ixG/60. He's playing incredibly well, it's just not translating to the scoresheet because the Sens' stats are historically below the mean. When they bounce back, he's a good candidate to do so with them.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 fév à 20 h 59
Sujet: What does Nashville want
They probably use the Vincent Trocheck trade as one of the recent comparisons for what "quantity" would look like. Arvidsson has 3 further years left at $4.25M whereas Trocheck had 2 beyond left at $4.75M. Trocheck was a career 0.67 PPG player and was coming off 36 in 55 but wasn't far removed from 75 in 82. Arvidsson is a 0.63 PPG player coming off 28 in 57 but isn't far removed from 48 in 58 and 61 in 78. Trocheck received Haula (at the time was a 0.5 PPG player that season and was coming off a spectacular Vegas season), Wallmark (30 point 23 year old), Priskie (solid D prospect) and Luostarinen (middle 6 forward prospect).

Alternatively I'd expect they would ask for a 1st and a really good prospect, maybe some extra pieces. Because the Sens' 1st is much more valuable, things are very different for them. I wouldn't know where to begin there.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 fév à 14 h 11
Sujet: Mittelstadt for Brown
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gavinray</b></div><div>Logan Brown was over a point per game in the AHL last season and looks decent in the NHL. I feel like Mitterlstadt is barely an equivalent player, Bellows is really not good enough for the trade unless theres a package.</div></div>

So why trade for Mittelstadt when you know this? If anything, Brown's been the more impressive player since he's put up better AHL numbers, and equally as impressive NHL numbers on the worst team in the league. It's a direct downgrade.

<strong>Logan Brown</strong> | 6'6", 227 lbs | 11th OA in 2017
NHL: 9 P in 29 GP (<em>0.31 PPG</em>) | 8 in 23 last year (<em>0.35 PPG</em>)
AHL: 70 in 81 GP (<em>0.84 PPG</em>) | 28 in 25 last year (<em>1.12 PPG</em>)

<strong>Casey Mittelstadt</strong> | 6'1", 198 lbs | 8th OA in 2017
NHL: 40 in 116 GP (<em>0.34 PPG</em>) | 9 in 31 last year (<em>0.29 PPG</em>)
AHL: 25 in 36 GP (<em>0.69 PPG</em>) | 25 in 36 last year (<em>0.69 PPG</em>)
Forum: Armchair-GM16 fév à 16 h 30
Sujet: What would it take
Pierre-Luc Dubois (career 0.67 PPG at the time) was just traded at 22 with a 3rd for Laine (career 0.82 PPG at the time) and Roslovic (0.37 PPG at the time). Ryan Johansen (0.62 PPG in CBJ) was traded at 23 for Jones (0.32 PPG in NSH, top 4 potential). Matt Duchene (0.73 PPG in COL) was traded at 26 for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, Girard (top 4 D prospect), Bowers (middle 6 C prospect), Kamenev (bottom 6 forward prospect), and Hammond (fringe backup goalie). Those are probably the best examples of big names being traded.

Brady (career 0.62 PPG) is still 21 years old and has played on one of the worst teams in the league but still compares remarkably well to guys like Dubois and Johansen. You're looking at the Dubois trade as the closest comparable, so the Sens would be expecting a Laine-esque return. That means the only return Calgary that could ever offer that would move the needle for Ottawa would be Matthew Tkachuk, and that's not going to happen.

Considering he's younger than Duchene, if you wanted to go the direction of futures, it would be looking far more in the direction of what an offer sheet would cost and the Sens would probably match anything up until the four 1sts bracket and at that point you're just overpaying for the player in dollars. It'll cripple the team before anything else can be done.
Forum: Armchair-GM16 fév à 14 h 04
Sujet: Who are the Sens Protecting in Expansion
If the Sens left both White and Tierney unprotected, Seattle would easily take White. So, in that case, the Sens should protect White. Ideally they trade Tierney at this year's deadline after seeing what Blake Coleman went for last year (Tierney compares remarkably well throughout his career) but if they lose him it's not the end of the world. He's not vital to the future of the team whereas White has more upside in that regard.

Protecting Zaitsev feels odd since his contract likely protects him as is; he's a bottom pairing D making 2nd pairing money, so the Sens can likely shop around and target teams that are expected to lose a D because of how many they have. Teams like LA (Clague, Roy?), Colorado (Toews?) or Carolina (Skjei, Bean, Fleury?) come to mind. Make the trade with our exempt assets (like Lassi Thomson), and then protect them.

I think leaving Daccord unprotected is a mistake. Even if Murray is available, it can only be a win if they take him. Worst case scenario, the Sens are back on the hunt for a goalie. We traded a 2nd and our 800th best prospect to get Murray, so it's not very difficult to get one and the market is never very hot. It's smarter to just leave Murray open and if Seattle wants that contract then let them take it. Daccord may not be the answer to everything but he's at least interesting enough to hang on to (unless he's absolutely garbage this year). They would probably be intrigued by him because of his waiver eligibility and his potential which very few other available goalies have, as well as his long term contract that will keep him around for a while at a cheap price.

I think Seattle takes Tierney, Abramov, or Daccord. My brain says Daccord, my gut says Tierney, but my woke answer is Abramov. Where else are they going to get boom or bust prospects with incredible upside that they can feed insane minutes to and potentially get a superstar out of it? That's what Abramov is and that's what he's always been.
Forum: Armchair-GM16 fév à 13 h 48
Sujet: Will Dzingels role be bigger in Ottawa than it was in Carolina
I'd expect Stützle to be given chances at center soon, honestly. Acquiring Dzingel facilitates that. Since Dzingel can't play until March 1st, that gives buys us another two weeks to trade Stepan to free up space.

Otherwise it doesn't make a ton of sense. Paul - White - Dadonov has been our best line, so Paul's our best all around LW <em>right now</em>. Stützle has been our most creative player and although it hasn't translated onto the scoresheet he's dangerous every night. Dzingel has high upside and in his interview he spoke about how he's expecting to get more responsibility and more minutes with the Sens than he did with Carolina (i.e. not 4th line duty). Tkachuk has been in a slump and has not been himself but he's Brady Tkachuk and doesn't belong on the 4th line. Nobody should play there, so something's going to give. By moving Stützle to center in two weeks, we can instead roll something like:

Paul - White - Dadonov
Tkachuk - Norris/L. Brown - Batherson
Dzingel - Stützle - C. Brown
Chlapik - Tierney - Watson
Peca - Anisimov - Haley

With Formenton and Abramov in Belleville ready to get their chance if we choose to ship out Dzingel, Tierney, C. Brown or Watson at the deadline for assets.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 fév à 0 h 11
Sujet: BurkeHextall Vision
Aight here we go.

The Ottawa trade, while likely suitable in value, isn't great for Ottawa positionally. Sadly, White is arguably Ottawa's best center right now as Stepan wants to move back to the US, Norris is a rookie experiencing big even strength struggles, and Chris Tierney is an enigma that somehow produces while having awful metrics. Until Stützle is moved there, or Logan Brown is given an extended look to take the spot, or one of Pinto or Norris develops into the role (unlikely), White will hold a ton of value for the Sens as their de facto 1C. Otherwise he's an okay middle 6 player signed longterm who has some upside and reliable defensive IQ that's translated well in the past when the team was stronger.

On D though, the Sens have Chabot, Brännström, Wolanin and Reilly down the left side. It's not great and Pettersson is almost certainly an upgrade at the position, but he will forever be behind Chabot and could already be behind Brännström depending how Pettersson would look in DJ's system (especially since Erik started the season very strong). In the prospect pool, the Sens have Sanderson who also plays on the left side and so they've already caused a logjam with their 3 biggest D of the future being on the same side. It's poor asset management to go out and trade for another LHD that at best plays on their 2nd pair as a #4 for this year alone, and very quickly gets replaced and pushed to a 3rd pairing D when Sanderson comes in. Especially when, again, as mentioned, they'd be trading a guy who is currently their 1C. Down the line White likely projects as a 3C, but he's too important right now.

As an aside, it's also really humourous how frequently Pens fans make White for Pettersson trades and then when Sens fans ( <a href="/users/csick" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@csick</a> <a href="/users/PLDGEY" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@PLDGEY</a> <a href="/users/sensibleguy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@sensibleguy</a> ) say that Ottawa might not be interested because of positional strength, you guys get all defensive and go "well White is garbage anyways, have fun staying bad, SENS SUCK PENS RULE, KAPPA DELTA PSY FOREVER BABY LET IT RIDE YEAAAA". If he's so bad, why is it always you guys trying to trade for him? If Pettersson is so good, maybe you should keep him for your depleted D core or to cover for Matheson and Ceci. Seems the Pens are in 23rd right now without a 1st round pick, which was a song the Sens were singing not so long ago. The responses give off the same vibes as those guys who get rejected by girls and then go "well you're fat and ugly anyways".
Forum: Armchair-GM 9 fév à 17 h 26
Sujet: Playoffs
This is a really really rough trade, and I just think it might come from either not knowing who White and/or Tierney are, or maybe not realizing who Matheson is. I see there are 7 players on the taxi squad and the limit is 6, so I'm just not sure if there's an unfamiliarity aspect here.

There have been a lot of White for Pettersson trades around here. It doesn't make a lot of sense for Ottawa and really only had legs because Ottawa fans were unfairly unhappy with White because every fanbase needs a whipping boy and they had chosen him after his struggles last year. But this one is completely different because instead you're using Matheson, who's got one of the worst deals in the league, and two replacement level players, and trying to get back Ottawa's best center right now in White and a solid bottom 6 option in Tierney? With only two 2nds going back? Not likely. The Matheson deal in itself would carry a significant sweetener just to take, let alone getting back two valuable assets in return. Ottawa would say no here and it's not even close.
Forum: Armchair-GM 9 fév à 14 h 31
Forum: Armchair-GM 9 fév à 12 h 50
Sujet: This is the year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JaredOfLondon</b></div><div>Paul is a nice player, but hes not worth near that much.</div></div>

I agree that he's not worth that much in value, but the Sens are in a weird place right now where they're going to overvalue a couple of players simply because of what they're providing to the room and to the chemistry of the team. Nick Paul's a great story because he climbed up the ranks and did his time in the AHL and worked his butt off to get where he is and now he's a complimentary player a la Connor Brown that can fill in all over the lineup. He's young enough that he can stick with the core of the team. They have no reason to move him for a 3rd and Abramov; that's an uninspiring package that offers them very little in return that moves the needle when Nick Paul is already satisfying needs for them now. It's got to be something that wows them now and makes it worth sending him away because otherwise they'll just keep him.
Forum: Armchair-GM 5 fév à 21 h 12
Sujet: Sabres
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheBoyDuddus</b></div><div>Am I tripping or is this not a lot considering Montour would essentially be a rental and Buffalo's also getting rid of the Okposo contract?</div></div>

No you're exactly right. Montour is a rental and walks, Davidsson is not a good prospect and is irrelevant and only cute decoration here since the Sens have his brother, and Tage Thompson is simply not very good.

It's easy when broken down. Let's argue it's a 1st and Thompson to take back Okposo's contract. That's about what it would cost to take back that monstrosity, especially since Thompson isn't interesting no matter how much anybody wants him to be. We can ignore Davidsson because he's irrelevant at the NHL level and is included here as fluff. That leaves Montour for White and Stepan. That's a no deal because Montour is a rental and walks, and White is better value to Ottawa. Plus Stepan still has value, even if it's minimal.