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30 avr 2017
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Blackhawks de Chicago
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Forum: Armchair-GM23 mar à 16 h 20
Sujet: Ideal TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>Hard to say something exact. Let me give two examples...Would I rather have a Landon Slaggert or Evan Barrett...I'm liking the upside that Slaggert brings right now. Almost a ppg player in the NCAA as a true freshman...that's a great start. He was a 3rd rounder.

BUT on the flip side...

Statistics would tell you that a 3rd round pick has roughly a 25% chance of being an NHL talent.

I mention statistics because I went back between 2006 and 2016 and wanted to see how many players in the 3rd round actually had 100 games played. That allows all these prospects 5 years or more to develop into "NHL Talent"... NHL talent meaning just 100 games. zero goals...ok zero assists...ok did you play 100 games? If Yes, you're NHL talent. If No, you're not. 88 players had 100 games out of 335 picks is 26% chance that any 3rd rounds has a chance to be an NHLer.


Firstly I appreciate how much work and thought you put into this. However, just because 3rd rounders have an ~25% chance of becoming something, that something has varying levels of success. Theres always a chance those 3rds will become nothing or replacement level players but theres also a chance those picks will not only match their value but exceed it like the Brayden Points, Brett Pesces, and Jake Guentzels of the world. Not saying Regula or Barratt will be of that caliber but the prospects value is the perceived max ceiling they have. To me Regula has top 4 potential and Barratt has middle 6 potential but they might well fall flat of that evaluation or be better. How this relates back to Conor Garland, I believe we're giving up too much quality and quantity in this trade. The amount we're giving up is the cost of a near top end player for a guy thats probably top 6 at best, only shown signs of that this season and is already 25. I can see us giving up pieces of this trade like regula and a first or something but everything else is just overkill imo.