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BeastModeUnknown

CPDunn Untouchable
Membre depuis
18 mar 2018
Équipe préférée
Blues de St-Louis
Deuxième équipe préférée
Hurricanes de la Caroline
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284
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 14 heures
Sujet: Building A More Competitive Leafs team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>Bortuzzo has certainly had more experience. So far this year Holl is our best Dman. Better than Brodie Reilly and Muzzin. I certainly don’t expect him to keep up his pace in points but he has been a defensive beast. Blocking shots using his body and contributing in all 3 zones.

I was high on him last season because of what I saw him doing even if he didn’t get the results. I would have never expected that he would have came in so complete this year. He is confident and playing with swagger.

Mid way though the season when everyone catches on you will see his value go flying up. To the leafs he is going to be worth protection in the expansion.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>Couple of things here. First, Holl has only been in the league one year (not counting the three games or whatever this year) and that was widely considered Freddie Andersen's worst year in the league, so I would say Holl put up those results in spite of Andersen, not because of him.

Second, the charts that you are putting here are for even strength. I'll come back to the PK, but in my opinion this actually shows that Holl is the more consistent player due to how much his expected goals for/expected goals against line up with his actual goals for and goals against. The xGF is a decent predictor of the "mean" that these players will regress to, whether that be a good or bad regression, while the GF is descriptive of what they actually did in 19-20. What I see is that Holl performed a little worse offensively than he should have, while Bortuzzo way overperformed offensively last year.

But, RAPM charts really only tell us so much about defense, and they're not optimized for 4-on-5. So for the PK, I think their player cards are a little more indicative of how they performed short handed. I've never been able to figure out how to get an image into capfriendly, but <a href="https://imgur.com/a/V4ppI5X" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">here's</a> a public link to them. As we can see in the SH Defense column, Bortuzzo's value is mainly in his ability to drive offense, rather than his stingy defense. In fact, he's been below replacement short handed for the past three years (and I would say this is mostly because of his much-beloved willingness to block shots, which analytics would tell us can oftentimes do more harm than good). We only have a one year sample on Holl, so maybe I'm jumping the gun a bit, but he's had better results on a worse defensive team that had worse goaltending last year.

As for our PK being bad without Bortuzzo- maybe. We did let a power play goal in when he was in the lineup the first game too. But even if you don't believe in Holl's ability to step up there, we have guys that should be able to handle those minutes. Faulk has posted some very impressive PK numbers, we've got Mikkola- who has been a PK specialist basically his entire career- waiting for opportunity as well. In fact, the only regular defenseman who has posted worse numbers than Bortuzzo over the last three years is Scandella. In my opinion, Bortuzzo very much shouldn't be an everyday player, trade or no trade.

I do think Blais should be a more regular PK'er and I do like the sort of "intangibles" that Barbashev and Bortuzzo bring to the table which would make me unwilling to trade them, but these are two players that give us very clear upgrades. It's very similar to the Reaves trade in my opinion, where you don't get the "sexy" players necessarily but you get the better players.</div></div>

<img class="for_img" src="https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/501148288003735572/801227375027159061/unknown.png" alt="unknown.png"><img class="for_img" src="https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/501148288003735572/801227313152262164/unknown.png" alt="unknown.png">

What I'm looking at is EV where I guess Holl is playing more quality competition last year, but I think that is going to change for Bortuzzo due to Pietrangelo not being there they can't rely on it being Pietrangelo and Parayko being the 2 that get the job done defensively. It's gotta be Bortuzzo Parayko now. I don't trust Scandella, and I'm not sure I can trust Faulk yet either. But I want to see what Mikkola can do.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 14 heures
Sujet: Building A More Competitive Leafs team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>Are these charts adjusted for for competition? They don’t seem to be. Holl was facing top lines.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>Couple of things here. First, Holl has only been in the league one year (not counting the three games or whatever this year) and that was widely considered Freddie Andersen's worst year in the league, so I would say Holl put up those results in spite of Andersen, not because of him.

Second, the charts that you are putting here are for even strength. I'll come back to the PK, but in my opinion this actually shows that Holl is the more consistent player due to how much his expected goals for/expected goals against line up with his actual goals for and goals against. The xGF is a decent predictor of the "mean" that these players will regress to, whether that be a good or bad regression, while the GF is descriptive of what they actually did in 19-20. What I see is that Holl performed a little worse offensively than he should have, while Bortuzzo way overperformed offensively last year.

But, RAPM charts really only tell us so much about defense, and they're not optimized for 4-on-5. So for the PK, I think their player cards are a little more indicative of how they performed short handed. I've never been able to figure out how to get an image into capfriendly, but <a href="https://imgur.com/a/V4ppI5X" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">here's</a> a public link to them. As we can see in the SH Defense column, Bortuzzo's value is mainly in his ability to drive offense, rather than his stingy defense. In fact, he's been below replacement short handed for the past three years (and I would say this is mostly because of his much-beloved willingness to block shots, which analytics would tell us can oftentimes do more harm than good). We only have a one year sample on Holl, so maybe I'm jumping the gun a bit, but he's had better results on a worse defensive team that had worse goaltending last year.

As for our PK being bad without Bortuzzo- maybe. We did let a power play goal in when he was in the lineup the first game too. But even if you don't believe in Holl's ability to step up there, we have guys that should be able to handle those minutes. Faulk has posted some very impressive PK numbers, we've got Mikkola- who has been a PK specialist basically his entire career- waiting for opportunity as well. In fact, the only regular defenseman who has posted worse numbers than Bortuzzo over the last three years is Scandella. In my opinion, Bortuzzo very much shouldn't be an everyday player, trade or no trade.

I do think Blais should be a more regular PK'er and I do like the sort of "intangibles" that Barbashev and Bortuzzo bring to the table which would make me unwilling to trade them, but these are two players that give us very clear upgrades. It's very similar to the Reaves trade in my opinion, where you don't get the "sexy" players necessarily but you get the better players.</div></div>

Damn I forgot I had JFresh's cards I should have just pulled those up. Lmao.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 14 heures
Sujet: Building A More Competitive Leafs team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>Holl is rhd and far better than Burtuzzo pk and 5v5. Continuing on from his strong season last year and looking even Better this year.

Leafs would never make this trade.</div></div>

You know I really like your opinion, and you are one of the better known Toronto fans and at least a trusted one in my eyes, but I still think Bortuzzo is more consistent on the defensive end, and the RAPM is backing up what I'm saying, but Mikheyev yes he's better than Barbashev that's a given, but Mikheyev is offensive, he would be more redundant on the Blues because he would be a 3rd line type player who's going to get paid, and get a Top 6 spot soon, which Blues do not have so not sure if the Blues really want to make that type of deal.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 14 heures
Sujet: Building A More Competitive Leafs team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>Nah Blues should do this 100% do this I think. Our PK is clicking at 41% right now. Anything below 80% is abysmal. Barbashev and Bortuzzo play a lot of minutes on the PK but have actually been below replacement it at for some time now, according to Evolving-Hockey. Holl (who is a righty, and we could use one on the cheap) and Mikheyev both play on Toronto's PK and have posted better individual results than Barbashev or Bortuzzo.

Mikheyev and Holl will cost more in cap over the next few years, but this team is really missing some quality penalty killers without Steen and Bouwmeester. This would be an upgrade for the Blues, not to mention Mikheyev and Holl are actually good at 5v5 as well.

Bad trade for the Leafs, but one of them suggested it so.</div></div>

Holl is younger, but costs more money, he's better offensively, but blues need more defensively minded defenceman. I'd honestly like to see Niko Mikkola get a shot before we even think about anything else. Gunnarsson wasn't terrible, but he was on his opposite hand, so we need to just look at it as a whole.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 15 heures
Sujet: Building A More Competitive Leafs team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>Nah Blues should do this 100% do this I think. Our PK is clicking at 41% right now. Anything below 80% is abysmal. Barbashev and Bortuzzo play a lot of minutes on the PK but have actually been below replacement it at for some time now, according to Evolving-Hockey. Holl (who is a righty, and we could use one on the cheap) and Mikheyev both play on Toronto's PK and have posted better individual results than Barbashev or Bortuzzo.

Mikheyev and Holl will cost more in cap over the next few years, but this team is really missing some quality penalty killers without Steen and Bouwmeester. This would be an upgrade for the Blues, not to mention Mikheyev and Holl are actually good at 5v5 as well.

Bad trade for the Leafs, but one of them suggested it so.</div></div>

<img class="for_img" src="https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/501148288003735572/801212521020653608/CoGh1FEoYj8AAAAASUVORK5CYII.png?width=1130&amp;height=931" alt="CoGh1FEoYj8AAAAASUVORK5CYII.png?width=1130&amp;height=931">

As I said Bortuzzo is more consistent, and the reason our penalty kill is bad right now is because he is missing on it. He didn't even get through what 5 minutes of the first period in the second game? First game we held them 1/4 on the PK with Bortuzzo, so you can really see the difference, and ultimately if you don't like Barbashev. Samuel Blais is a way better PK player than Barbashev is in my honest opinion. Make it Blais, and Barbashev then mix the Defenceman pairings up. Honestly Holl doesn't do as good as much as Freddy is making tremendous saves. I understand your point of view, and I agree Mikheyev is a better player than Barbashev objectively, but Bortuzzo is more consistent, and puts up more consistent defensive numbers than Holl. Only reason Holl looks good is because he's the only one on the ice on the defense than looks competent enough to actually do something on defense.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 15 heures
Sujet: Building A More Competitive Leafs team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>Holl is rhd and far better than Burtuzzo pk and 5v5. Continuing on from his strong season last year and looking even Better this year.

Leafs would never make this trade.</div></div>

then we can both agree this deal wouldn't get done. Bortuzzo does way better on his own end, might not have the offensive standards, but the man doesn't his job more consistently than Holl does.

<img class="for_img" src="https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/501148288003735572/801212521020653608/CoGh1FEoYj8AAAAASUVORK5CYII.png?width=1130&amp;height=931" alt="CoGh1FEoYj8AAAAASUVORK5CYII.png?width=1130&amp;height=931">

This is the exact reason why I am telling you Holl is not as good. So agree to disagree.

Barbashev v Mikheyev whole different story in my opinion. Barbashev is a checking 4th line. Mikheyev does a way better job offensively, but Barbashev is a better defensive player really good on the forecheck, and back check, and Mikheyev would be another redundant scoring depth player when we already have Kyrou taking that final position. I'm sure we could use him once Hoffman's contract is up, but at the moment not really.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 12:04 pm
Sujet: Trading Kakko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BuFfaLOFaN</b></div><div>Ok by ur logic I'm torn to think that MacKinnon is a 2C. That guy was terrible but then they called up Rantenan he had a career year and Rantenan has been pushing his number ever since with help from Landeskog... So MacKinnon is a 2C so I'd like to trade Eichel for him and Makar since Eichel is a true 1C. Stop with the stupid argument points when you know your only saying this stuff for the point of argument, or GO WATCH ZIB on a nightly basis and get off the weed and I think you will realize.



He's a 1C on every team except for TBL, BUF, BOS, PIT, COL, EDM, STL, TOR</div></div>

I was specifically talking about Dubois and his play being BOOSTED with Panarin. NOT Zibanejad. Zibanejad has had numbers like that his entire career.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 12:02 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 12:11 am
Sujet: Trading Kakko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheFlamingC</b></div><div>Did you just... Zib and Dubois.... 2Cs..... Are you drunk.......... high?................. Just plain stupid?.................. I have no words</div></div>

ahhhhh see you fail to recognize. You fall under the regular unknowledgeable stereotype. The man has hit 60 points once in his career, and that was via Artemi Panarin last year was going to get around 50 points. Now if 50 points is a 1C to you then by all means take it, but to everyone else he does not possess the qualities of a 1C. Now Mika Zibanejad, I would agree IS a 1C he had 75 points in 57 games last year, I think when it comes to the deal. Kakko didn't do very well, but I would give him another year to see if he can seriously get his play up. Strome, and Johnson are not even remotely good. I would say Dubois would get more than that, but based on other deals he's not worth 2 A Prospects, or 2 First Round Picks in a sense.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 4:59 pm
Sujet: PIERRE LUC DUBOIS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>Suzuki isn't better than Dubois defensively that's just Montreal hype. CBJ play a very defensive style of game that lowers the production of the forwards, much like the NYI.

Anything less than Suzuki + Caufield would be way under value for Dubois. Even that would be a very nice trade for Montreal.</div></div>

I look at advanced stats like normal for my thesis, Trust me, if you want me to pull the statistics up, Dubois is going to play like sh*t if you want me to pull up QoC v QoT. Not to mention his finishing is not good, he's furthest from good on defense. If you count bubble play I think you are hilarious we throw that out. The guy put up 49 points in 70 games. You call that Elite????? BAHAHAHAHAHA oh this website and the people on it. So much for defense when he is a -2 +/- so much for a elite 1C with 18 goals. He's never hit 30 goals in a season.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 3:20 am
Sujet: PIERRE LUC DUBOIS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>If Dubois wanted to stay I wouldn't move him for Suzuki + Caufield. Number 1 centres don't grow on trees.

Dubois is only a year older than Suzuki and is still improving.</div></div>

But Dubois doesn't want to stay and Suzuki is producing better than Dubois from advanced analytics standpoint. The difference is 8 points, sure that's really not much, but Suzuki on the defensive side of things makes Dubois look silly, and he costs more than Suzuki right now, so the chances are Dubois doesn't even make a Top 6 Center spot, so again I say Montreal isn't willing to pay up to what Columbus wants,, and he doesn't want to stay. Columbus most likely going to have to bite the bullet, unless somehow he gets traded for cheaper, or another team thinks he's worth it, but simply put Dubois isnt worth 2 A Prospects. I'm sorry he's just not worth it at all.