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AndrewPawlack

18 lotteries, 0 wins
Membre depuis
18 oct. 2017
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Blue Jackets de Columbus
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Avalanche du Colorado
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Forum: Armchair-GM13 févr. à 18 h 59
Sujet: My TDL
Let's just start with Jenner isn't getting moved, and Andersen isn't getting moved unless the Canes actually do manage to land Saros (and even then...???).

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>Freddie's played 6 games and is a starting goalie. Elvis is a fringe backup making 5 million.

KK's better defensively, better age, better creator. This is a bad overpayment for a middle six guy.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AndrewPawlack</b></div><div>yes I can see he's only played 6 games. But in those 6 he's played like **** with the best defense in the league in front of him. As I said to someone else, Canes don't need Boone, but if they trade him for KK that's a Columbus loss.

"great deal long term" 8 year nearly 5 mill per for a bottom 6 player loooool</div></div>

Moneypuck has Freddie's GSAx/60 at -.096, Elvis is at +.047. Of goalies to play 5+ games this year, Freddie ranks 48th, Elvis ranks 41st.
Freddie's GAA: 2.87, 0.09 worse than expected. Elvis: GAA is 3.21, 0.05 better than expected.
Freddie's SV% is an .894 (46th in the league), Elvis' is a .904 (30th in the league) per ESPN.

They're both league average. Literally average. Calling Freddie a "starting goalie" and Elvis a "fringe backup" is blatant homerism. Saying Freddie has "played like ****" is also just untrue. Given the contracts, you take Freddie 100 times out of 100, but people love to slander Elvis when he's objectively fine, just overpaid.

Same goes with KK vs. Jenner.

Better defensively? KK is starting 59.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone (career 62.7% in Carolina) vs. Jenner's 47.6% and 45.9%, respectively. FO%: KK = 48.4%, Jenner = 54.5%. Shorthanded, KK's played a grand total of 4.3 minutes this year, vs. Jenner's 48.1 (where he's only allowed 5 shots).

Better age? Yeah, clearly. Better creator? Sure, KK has a 55.2% xGF% (-.8% relative to the rest of Carolina) and a 61% CorsiFor% vs. Jenner's 48.6% xGF% (+5.2% relative to the rest of Columbus), 52% CorsiFor%. That, though, has a lot to do with the team play.

Points? KK: 9-9-18, -11, career best: 18-25-43, +10.
Jenner: 15-5-20, -7, career best: 30-19-49, -15.

If you're only looking at points, yeah, Jesperi looks like he's a Jenner-type. But the fact is, he's a bottom-6 center who does everything...okay, but is sheltered by a great team and favorable matchups. Jenner is a middle-6 center who does basically everything but playmaking pretty well, and is asked to do too much on a terrible team.

Again, they're not getting moved, but at least try to have some objectivity here, both of you.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 févr. à 14 h 14
Forum: Armchair-GM5 févr. à 18 h 2
Forum: Armchair-GM6 févr. à 10 h 30
oh ya im so here for this i am ur target audience with this question.

cole sillinger: absolutely in the midst of a comeback season. the NHL debut at age 18 was the wrong development plan for him. typically only the greats play a true age 18 season and cole sillinger was never supposed to be a great. he overperformed thanks to Gus Nyquist, Jakob Voracek, and Oliver Bjorkstrand being his wingers. made the game really easy for him to rack up points because all three had very nice seasons (they were the CBJ number 4, 1, and 2 scorers that season respectively). to put voracek's 2021-22 season into context: he had 3 more assists than johnny gaudreau did with the same CBJ team the following season.

so then for cole in 2022-23, he's dealt the hand of: voracek plays just 11 games before LTIRetiring, nyquist has a just okay season before being IR traded, and bjorkstrand was moved in the summer for johnny gaudreau, who cole does not get to play with. so he spends that season playing significant time with rookie Kent Johnson (didn't work), Liam Foudy (who isn't an NHL player), and Emil Bemstrom (who isn't an NHL player). naturally, it went terrible. he is not and probably never will be an elite finisher and so playing with people who also aren't great finishers nor great creators means there's simply nothing that happens.

this year, cole started the season super cold because he was bumped around the lineup trying to re-earn his spot. the CBJ have a LOT of forwards in the organization. he was out for a short time due to injury and ever since he came back from that, he was given a steady spot in the lineup with quality linemates (a lot of Yegor Chinakhov) and has really elevated his game. i would say that over the last two months, he's established that his ceiling is true 2C. he is using his size better than ever and the skating has been decent enough even if the speed hasn't come back. he is an impact player on PK and PP and had a solid month stretch where he was our best player. the faceoff percentage is coming up, he's putting some points on the board, and is making a positive impact on possession stats as well.

the big question that remains with cole is can he become a 60 point per season guy. the finishing has to get to 20 goal range and the creation has to get to 40 assist range if he wants to reach that 2C ceiling. his current play is like 16-20-36 which is not bad for a 20 year old and could easily develop into 22-38-60. but we gotta see it start happening.

kent johnson: quite the opposite of cole. no matter who he has played with, he's been in the 15-25-40 neighborhood consistently. this season has had a lot more highs and lows en route to those numbers than last season did. i have described him on another thread as "a strong wind could knock him of the puck". he's so impressive with the puck on his stick in any sort of space but he's not creating space for himself very well. the vision is really good but the passes often don't connect.

the number one big thing with him is that he needs NHL adult strength. it will make a huge difference in his game because opponents will have to respect him more. currently, they just crowd him physically and apply pressure to limit his ability to create. his hockey sense still has a ways to go as well as he's susceptible to open-ice hits and pokechecks that he hasn't learned to anticipate yet. which makes sense for a 21 year old with just 122 NHL games.

i don't personally think that he's shown he has a real future as an NHL center and i think he'd be best suited to focus on becoming one of the league's premier creators on the wing, but im no expert.