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The Hughesfecta

Créé par: jnorrrr
Équipe: 2024-25 Devils du New Jersey
Date de création initiale: 29 nov. 2023
Publié: 29 nov. 2023
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Figured I’d give this a shot. At the end of the day, I don’t think Quinn to NJ happens until his UFA year, but figured I’d see where his trade value is at.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
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11 750 000 $
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1875 000 $
Transactions
VAN
  1. Casey, Seamus [Liste de réserve]
  2. Mercer, Dawson [Droits de RFA]
  3. Siegenthaler, Jonas
  4. Choix de 1e ronde en 2025 (NJD)
Frais appliqués
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2024
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2025
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2026
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2187 500 000 $79 249 167 $0 $6 007 500 $8 250 833 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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8 800 000 $8 800 000 $
AG, AD
NMC
UFA - 7
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7 250 000 $7 250 000 $
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
AD, AG
RFA - 1
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6 000 000 $6 000 000 $
AG, AD
NMC
UFA - 3
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8 000 000 $8 000 000 $
C
UFA - 6
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7 875 000 $7 875 000 $
AD, AG
NMC
UFA - 7
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900 000 $900 000 $
AG
RFA
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3 150 000 $3 150 000 $
C, AG
NTC
UFA - 2
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900 000 $900 000 $
AD, C
RFA
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1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
AD, C
UFA - 1
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1 750 000 $1 750 000 $
C
RFA
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1 350 000 $1 350 000 $
AD
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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1 050 000 $1 050 000 $
DG
RFA - 1
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9 000 000 $9 000 000 $
DD
NMC
UFA - 4
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3 400 000 $3 400 000 $
G
UFA - 1
Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
7 850 000 $7 850 000 $
DG
UFA - 3
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918 333 $918 333 $ (Bonis de performance3 250 000 $$3M)
DD
RFA - 2
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2 750 000 $2 750 000 $
G
RFA
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925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance1 850 000 $$2M)
DG/DD
RFA - 1
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4 400 000 $4 400 000 $
DD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
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836 667 $836 667 $ (Bonis de performance57 500 $$58K)
DG
RFA - 2

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29 nov. 2023 à 18 h 36
#1
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Ya'll still doing this sh*t? Maybe you should be more focused on who's getting traded when the Devils start selling
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29 nov. 2023 à 18 h 37
#2
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Try Hischier + Nemec + 4 1st round picks as a starting point
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29 nov. 2023 à 18 h 42
#3
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Quoting: Mediumyeet
Try Hischier + Nemec + 4 1st round picks as a starting point


tears of joy
29 nov. 2023 à 18 h 42
#4
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Canucks pass Again/ Still. Lets talk again in min 4 Years.
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29 nov. 2023 à 18 h 49
#5
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Not even close
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29 nov. 2023 à 18 h 50
#6
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Add Nemec, the 2024 1st and the Canucks don't immediately hang up..
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29 nov. 2023 à 18 h 55
#7
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: TheAlien
Ya'll still doing this sh*t? Maybe you should be more focused on who's getting traded when the Devils start selling


God I can't wait for the PDO merchants to come back down to earth.
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29 nov. 2023 à 19 h 1
#8
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: Mediumyeet
Try Hischier + Nemec + 4 1st round picks as a starting point


unsustainable shooting rates got nucks fans talking crazy.

4 years at 8 mill.

Nico probably worth 10 AAV on the open market (see aho deal and he gets even more on the true open market)
5-6 mill each so 16 mill, nemec with 7 years of control including 3 full ELC years to come at least another 10-15 mill, I'll go 3.5 aav tho

Unless I'm getting 4 years of Mcdavid at 8 mill no chance
29 nov. 2023 à 19 h 15
#9
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Hughes is about as untouchable as possible right now. Any return would have to start with either Luke Hughes++ (which negates the point of trading for Quinn) or Nemec++. Even then, I don't think you could add enough value that you could convince the Canucks to move him.
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29 nov. 2023 à 19 h 42
#10
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We already have Boardwalk and Park Place…don’t need to add Baltic Ave
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29 nov. 2023 à 21 h 5
#11
PDG over PDO
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Quoting: dgibb10
God I can't wait for the PDO merchants to come back down to earth.


You'll be waiting a while
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29 nov. 2023 à 21 h 9
#12
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Quoting: theleano1
You'll be waiting a while


You're literally 5-5 in your last 10, and that's despite playing actually better hockey than you were to start the season
29 nov. 2023 à 21 h 17
#13
westleysnipez
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Quoting: dgibb10
You're literally 5-5 in your last 10, and that's despite playing actually better hockey than you were to start the season


Well, 5-5 is a helluva lot better than 4-6! And we're still only 1 point behind first in the league.
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29 nov. 2023 à 21 h 20
#14
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Quoting: westleysnipez
Well, 5-5 is a helluva lot better than 4-6! And we're still only 1 point behind first in the league.


Yes. You have banked a lot of points from a ridiculous demko run+horrific goaltending on the other side to start the season, combined with a very light schedule

Now, despite playing better hockey than you did to start the season, you're a 0.500 team again with the luck factors evening out.
29 nov. 2023 à 21 h 30
#15
westleysnipez
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Quoting: dgibb10
Yes. You have banked a lot of points from a ridiculous demko run+horrific goaltending on the other side to start the season, combined with a very light schedule

Now, despite playing better hockey than you did to start the season, you're a 0.500 team again with the luck factors evening out.


What I'm reading is the Canucks have good goaltending and a potent offense and the Devils don't have that.

The Canucks and Devils have played against 5 of the same teams (COL, MTL, NYI, NYR, STL).

The Canucks are 3-1-1. The Devils are 3-3-0 (NYI x 2)

The Canucks have 3.8 GF/GP, the Devils have 3.6 GF/GP

The Canucks have 2.8 GA/GP, the Devils have 4.1 GA/GP.

Seems like the Canucks are just better to me.
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29 nov. 2023 à 21 h 35
#16
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Quoting: westleysnipez
What I'm reading is the Canucks have good goaltending and a potent offense and the Devils don't have that.

The Canucks and Devils have played against 5 of the same teams (COL, MTL, NYI, NYR, STL).

The Canucks are 3-1-1. The Devils are 3-3-0 (NYI x 2)

The Canucks have 3.8 GF/GP, the Devils have 3.6 GF/GP

The Canucks have 2.8 GA/GP, the Devils have 4.1 GA/GP.

Seems like the Canucks are just better to me.


Seen a billion times with a billion times: "our team is different, this is sustainable"

If the canucks can sustain the best goaltending play and finishing rates seen in like 30 years, sure it's sustainable.

And yes, the devils goaltending, specifically vanacek could tank their season if they don't get it under control.

But the devils generate 2.75 xGoals/60 5v5, and allow 2.38
the canucks are at 2.47 for both metrics
29 nov. 2023 à 21 h 37
#17
westleysnipez
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Quoting: dgibb10
Seen a billion times with a billion times: "our team is different, this is sustainable"

If the canucks can sustain the best goaltending play and finishing rates seen in like 30 years, sure it's sustainable.

And yes, the devils goaltending, specifically vanacek could tank their season if they don't get it under control.

But the devils generate 2.75 xGoals/60 5v5, and allow 2.38
the canucks are at 2.47 for both metrics


Right, of course, I forgot this season the NHL was switching to expected goals and not actual goals. It's amazing how much it changes the dynamics of the league.
29 nov. 2023 à 21 h 47
#18
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Quoting: westleysnipez
Right, of course, I forgot this season the NHL was switching to expected goals and not actual goals. It's amazing how much it changes the dynamics of the league.


The banked points are the banked points and will almost certainly ensure Vancouver makes the playoffs. You can't change the outcomes of the past.

But expected goals are a much more accurate predictor of future success than actual goal differential.

And the canucks are on pace for the biggest xGoal differential vs goal differential (from moneypucks metrics) seen at any point as far back as you can go (which is 15 years). Do I believe that's sustainable play considering it's based on a bunch of guys doubling and tripling their career shooting rates and a 27 year old goalie performing LEVELS above what he ever has shown before. No. And that's even been shown in recent games.

Schedule also gets a hell of a lot more difficult going forward. You haven't even started your season series with Boston, NJD, Car, LAK, or Vegas
29 nov. 2023 à 21 h 58
#19
westleysnipez
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Quoting: dgibb10
The banked points are the banked points and will almost certainly ensure Vancouver makes the playoffs. You can't change the outcomes of the past.

But expected goals are a much more accurate predictor of future success than actual goal differential.

And the canucks are on pace for the biggest xGoal differential vs goal differential (from moneypucks metrics) seen at any point as far back as you can go (which is 15 years). Do I believe that's sustainable play considering it's based on a bunch of guys doubling and tripling their career shooting rates and a 27 year old goalie performing LEVELS above what he ever has shown before. No. And that's even been shown in recent games.

Schedule also gets a hell of a lot more difficult going forward. You haven't even started your season series with Boston, NJD, Car, LAK, or Vegas


Man, if you're saying that you clearly haven't watched the Canucks.

Boeser has always had 40-50g pace in him, he was dealing with heavy personal issues that affected him on the ice.

Miller and Pettersson have both been 100-point players before this season.

Hughes has been an amazing defenseman since coming into the league, now that he has a full complement behind him he's able to score more.

Demko was absolute money until his injury last season that slowed his play and took him out for 50 games. Now he's back and able to play at full bore with a competent defense.

Its not some magic trick the Canucks are playing. We've been scoring at an increased pace the last 3 seasons. It was always the defense and bottom six, thats been largely fixed.
29 nov. 2023 à 22 h 9
#20
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Quoting: westleysnipez
Man, if you're saying that you clearly haven't watched the Canucks.

Boeser has always had 40-50g pace in him, he was dealing with heavy personal issues that affected him on the ice.

Miller and Pettersson have both been 100-point players before this season.

Hughes has been an amazing defenseman since coming into the league, now that he has a full complement behind him he's able to score more.

Demko was absolute money until his injury last season that slowed his play and took him out for 50 games. Now he's back and able to play at full bore with a competent defense.

Its not some magic trick the Canucks are playing. We've been scoring at an increased pace the last 3 seasons. It was always the defense and bottom six, thats been largely fixed.


Quinn is a great defenseman. I don't buy his shooting numbers where he nearly triples his shooting %.
I don't buy a team as a whole shooting 14 goals above expectation (I have stated the same about the red wings btw).

I believe demko is a top 10 goalie, maybe top 5.

I don't believe he's going to sustain what would be, at this pace, the best goalie season of all time (at least in the accurately tracked era). (I'll say the same about Adin Hill and Woll). And we've already seen it. Demko was at about 10 GSAx about a month ago if i remember correctly. He's at about 13 now. And shockingly the team is now 5-5 in its last 10.

Things almost always regress back to the mean.

Even last years boston, it all came crashing down come playoff time when the goaltending suddenly dried up
29 nov. 2023 à 22 h 12
#21
PDG over PDO
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Quoting: dgibb10
You're literally 5-5 in your last 10, and that's despite playing actually better hockey than you were to start the season

And vegas is 3-4-3 in their last 10
29 nov. 2023 à 22 h 13
#22
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Quoting: theleano1
And vegas is 3-4-3 so that really doesn't matter


Yes, vegas has also been major PDO merchants to start the year. They are in a very similar boat. But again thank you for proving my point
29 nov. 2023 à 22 h 44
#23
PDG over PDO
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Quoting: dgibb10
Yes, vegas has also been major PDO merchants to start the year. They are in a very similar boat. But again thank you for proving my point


It really doesn't prove anything all it proves that the season long and each 10 set of games aren't going to be the same, good teams typically have higher pdo's one of the leagues best goaltenders and and having a Potent offence is going to allow you to have a high pdo, pdo also doesn't take into consideration high danger shots for ect if a team is getting a lot of high danger scoring opportunities they are more than likely going to score on them there for a higher shooting%. people use pdo as a gospel stat when quite frankly it's a very flawed Stat yes it can be somewhat useful in certain situations buts it not the end all be all stat
29 nov. 2023 à 23 h 41
#24
westleysnipez
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Quoting: dgibb10
Quinn is a great defenseman. I don't buy his shooting numbers where he nearly triples his shooting %.
I don't buy a team as a whole shooting 14 goals above expectation (I have stated the same about the red wings btw).

I believe demko is a top 10 goalie, maybe top 5.

I don't believe he's going to sustain what would be, at this pace, the best goalie season of all time (at least in the accurately tracked era). (I'll say the same about Adin Hill and Woll). And we've already seen it. Demko was at about 10 GSAx about a month ago if i remember correctly. He's at about 13 now. And shockingly the team is now 5-5 in its last 10.

Things almost always regress back to the mean.

Even last years boston, it all came crashing down come playoff time when the goaltending suddenly dried up


You're exactly right, that's why NJD is in first place with their expected goals and Vancouver's in last. Such a shame, Vancouver needs to get more mathletes.
30 nov. 2023 à 1 h 52
#25
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Quoting: theleano1
It really doesn't prove anything all it proves that the season long and each 10 set of games aren't going to be the same, good teams typically have higher pdo's one of the leagues best goaltenders and and having a Potent offence is going to allow you to have a high pdo, pdo also doesn't take into consideration high danger shots for ect if a team is getting a lot of high danger scoring opportunities they are more than likely going to score on them there for a higher shooting%. people use pdo as a gospel stat when quite frankly it's a very flawed Stat yes it can be somewhat useful in certain situations buts it not the end all be all stat


Pdo is a simple quick way to look at it. The Canucks also have very unsustainable xgoal rates like I mentioned
 
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