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Forums/Armchair-GM

Exploring Buch as Meier Comp

Créé par: AC14
Équipe: 2023-24 Golden Knights de Vegas
Date de création initiale: 27 nov. 2023
Publié: 27 nov. 2023
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Transactions
VGK
  1. Buchnevich, Pavel (2 900 000 $ retained)
  2. Ellis, Colten
  3. Rosén, Calle
  4. Vorobyov, Ivan [Liste de réserve]
  5. Choix de 5e ronde en 2024 (STL)
Détails additionnels:
Meier 50% vs Buch - Read Descrip
Ibragimov - Contract not picked up by Devs but by Utica - Vorobyov
Scott Harrington - Depth - Rosen for cap reasons
G Zach Emond - Not picked up by NJD - Ellis
24 5th
STL
  1. Edstrom, David
  2. Hague, Nicolas
  3. Korczak, Kaedan
  4. Choix de 1e ronde en 2024 (VGK)
  5. Choix de 2e ronde en 2025 (VGK)
  6. Choix de 7e ronde en 2026 (VGK)
Détails additionnels:
Zetterlund -> Hague +? (Zetterlund expiring RFA scoring at 2nd line rate. Hague little further along, probably a decent chance he's a #3/4 at this point)
Mukhamadullin -> Edstrom - (Muk drafted earlier in weaker draft. 20 vs 32OA for Edstrom
Andreas Johnsson (Dump) - No equivalent dump
Okhotiuk - Korczak (Pretty even after review)
23 1st - 24 1st =
24 conditional 2nd - cond 25 2nd =
24 7th - 26 7th - but due to circumstance
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2024
Logo de VGK
Logo de VGK
Logo de VGK
Logo de STL
Logo de VGK
Logo de VGK
Logo de CBJ
2025
Logo de VGK
Logo de VGK
Logo de VGK
Logo de VGK
Logo de VGK
2026
Logo de VGK
Logo de VGK
Logo de VGK
Logo de VGK
Logo de VGK
Logo de VGK
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2383 500 000 $83 191 667 $0 $0 $308 333 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
AG, AD
M-NTC
UFA - 5
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
10 000 000 $10 000 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo de Blues de St-Louis
2 900 000 $2 900 000 $
AG, AD, C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
775 000 $775 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 3
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
5 900 000 $5 900 000 $
C
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
1 900 000 $1 900 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 2
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
2 750 000 $2 750 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 1
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
9 500 000 $9 500 000 $
AD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
1 400 000 $1 400 000 $
AG
UFA - 1
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 4
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
1 400 000 $1 400 000 $
AD
UFA - 2
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
5 200 000 $5 200 000 $
DG/DD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
8 800 000 $8 800 000 $
DD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
4 900 000 $4 900 000 $
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
2 850 000 $2 850 000 $
DG
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
2 750 000 $2 750 000 $
DD
UFA - 5
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
766 667 $766 667 $
G
UFA - 2
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
5 250 000 $5 250 000 $
DG
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
775 000 $775 000 $
DD
RFA - 2
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
762 500 $762 500 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
850 000 $850 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
762 500 $762 500 $
DD
RFA - 1
Logo de Blues de St-Louis
762 500 $762 500 $
DG
UFA - 1

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28 nov. 2023 à 13 h 54
#51
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Quoting: dgibb10
Oh seems like you're just underestimating the Meier return

1st
1st/2nd
solid 23 year old roster player who was averaging half a ppg
another young depth dman
top 50-75 prospect in the NHL

Yes, buchnevich can fetch a 1st, solid prospect, and other pieces nobody cares about. That's not the meier return tho


That's exactly the Meier return give or take Fabian freaking Zetturland
28 nov. 2023 à 13 h 59
#52
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Quoting: TheEarthmaster
That's exactly the Meier return give or take Fabian freaking Zetturland


give or take a 2nd potentially becomes a 1st, zetterlund, and a 3.4 mill cap dump being taken.

Yes that is a significant difference in trade value.
28 nov. 2023 à 14 h 6
#53
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Quoting: dgibb10
Hagel can return that because were guaranteed 4 years dirt cheap even if they qualify him, and will end up getting 11 at a 5.1 mill AAV. Hagel, even if you view him as just a 6 million dollar player (I view him around 7.5), generates 13.5 million dollars over that 3 years+ the RFA control
Meier as a 10 million dollar player generates 19.1 million dollars in excess value over the term
Buch even if you view him as a 10 million dollar player (which I don't) generates just 14.2 mill in excess value in 2 years of control 50% retained.


This is a gross mischaracterization of how the cap work. You can't average out his cap hit between two different contracts. And again, they're in it to win now

Also I think that Meier would be a 10 million dollar player had he been 26 year old UFA in a 90 million cap environment, and I think Buchnevich would be a slightly-less-but-probably-not-as-much-as-you-think player if he was 26 and hitting UFA in a 90 million cap environment (instead of 30 like he's going to be). There's a good chance his next contract is 8million regardless.

Obviously no one is paying a 30 year old 10 million bucks. The ages are different, so the contracts that they're going to get are not going to be comparable.

But again the years of below market cost certainty are what you're paying for. Meier had zero years of below market cost certainty for the Devils to take advantage of. Buchnevich, hypothetically, will have one. Hagel had two. I see the price for Buchnevich as being somewhere in between Meier and Hagel (a late1st, and a B+/A- prospect plus a bunch of stuff that's not really important depending on how you feel about Zetterlund, and 2 late 1sts plus 2 B prospects) because his upside contains elements of both trades.
28 nov. 2023 à 14 h 9
#54
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Quoting: dgibb10
give or take a 2nd potentially becomes a 1st, zetterlund, and a 3.4 mill cap dump being taken.

Yes that is a significant difference in trade value.


It becomes significant if that 2nd becomes a first. I'll admit I forgot about the conditions there, though it's not looking particularly likely that that's going to hit. A late 2nd is not as valuable as everyone seems to think they are. Zetterlund to me is inconsequential, he's a young-but-not-that-young NHL body who played well-but-not-that-well on a team where everyone was playing well. And that cap hit removal was crucial for the devils to make this trade work at all.

I think Meier's insanely good, I think San Jose should have gotten more. I think it was not a good trade return for them and my feeling on Buchnevich fetching more in a trade is pretty much entirely thinking that trade was underwhelming for San Jose and because Buchnevich offers certain advantages that teams up against the cap would find valuable (advantages Meier- a better player- did not offer)
28 nov. 2023 à 14 h 12
#55
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Quoting: TheEarthmaster
This is a gross mischaracterization of how the cap work. You can't average out his cap hit between two different contracts. And again, they're in it to win now

Also I think that Meier would be a 10 million dollar player had he been 26 year old UFA in a 90 million cap environment, and I think Buchnevich would be a slightly-less-but-probably-not-as-much-as-you-think player if he was 26 and hitting UFA in a 90 million cap environment (instead of 30 like he's going to be). There's a good chance his next contract is 8million regardless.

Obviously no one is paying a 30 year old 10 million bucks. The ages are different, so the contracts that they're going to get are not going to be comparable.

But again the years of below market cost certainty are what you're paying for. Meier had zero years of below market cost certainty for the Devils to take advantage of. Buchnevich, hypothetically, will have one. Hagel had two. I see the price for Buchnevich as being somewhere in between Meier and Hagel (a late1st, and a B+/A- prospect plus a bunch of stuff that's not really important depending on how you feel about Zetterlund, and 2 late 1sts plus 2 B prospects) because his upside contains elements of both trades.


Pretending Meier and Hagel's RFA control has 0 value is crazy levels of delusion.

You're right the long term control on meier and hagel is actually probably even more valuable as the cap goes up and those contract

The devils did not pay that for 1 year of meier. They paid it for 9.
28 nov. 2023 à 15 h 46
#56
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Quoting: dgibb10
Pretending Meier and Hagel's RFA control has 0 value is crazy levels of delusion.

You're right the long term control on meier and hagel is actually probably even more valuable as the cap goes up and those contract

The devils did not pay that for 1 year of meier. They paid it for 9.


I don't understand why Meier's RFA control holds hardly any relevancy. He could very heavily dictate where he wanted to go. 10m QO is not normal, nor is it something that is too easy to absorb for most teams. It also raised the bar of the minimum salary with term you could give him. I don't think 8.8 is a bad contract for him. But it's by no means a fantastic one. It's pretty fair. I think it's hard to justify that he would've gotten more in an open market.
28 nov. 2023 à 16 h 29
#57
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Quoting: AC14
I don't understand why Meier's RFA control holds hardly any relevancy. He could very heavily dictate where he wanted to go. 10m QO is not normal, nor is it something that is too easy to absorb for most teams. It also raised the bar of the minimum salary with term you could give him. I don't think 8.8 is a bad contract for him. But it's by no means a fantastic one. It's pretty fair. I think it's hard to justify that he would've gotten more in an open market.


Then you haven't seen what UFA contracts look like
28 nov. 2023 à 18 h 36
#58
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Quoting: dgibb10
Then you haven't seen what UFA contracts look like


There’s not a good comp. And then factor in any comp hitting the open market isn’t an 8 year deal which generally significantly decreases AAV
28 nov. 2023 à 19 h 57
#59
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Quoting: AC14
There’s not a good comp. And then factor in any comp hitting the open market isn’t an 8 year deal which generally significantly decreases AAV


JG got nearly 10
Panarin got 11.5
Huberdeau 10.5
Forsberg 8.5
Duchene 8
Skinner 9
Seguin 9.85
Stone 9.5
Benn. 9.5
it goes on and on. UFAs get ugly

The only RFA wingers to get 9+ as an RFA
Tkachuk
Marner
Kucherov
Kaprizov
Rantanen
Ovi (13 year deal)

Only marner got more than 10 and that was Dubas getting bent over
UFA deals get so much pricier
 
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