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20 game progress report

Créé par: A_K
Équipe: 2023-24 Blues de St-Louis
Date de création initiale: 21 nov. 2023
Publié: 27 nov. 2023
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Recap:
Blues have taken 23 pts from 20 GP with a record of 11-8-1; on pace for 94 pts.
4th in the Central
7th in the West (1st WC spot)

60 GF (22nd)
62 GA (15th)

The Good:
Well they didn't split their Jekyll and Hyde nature perfectly across the 10 game samples, but this was a better stretch of hockey for the Blues than the first 10... although the 6-4-0 record wasn't much different from the 5-4-1 record over the first 10 (thank you Jordan Binnington). Overall, the numbers still show room for improvement but at least they have now shown the ability to outshoot, outscore, outplay opponents. Given how lousy the other central teams are playing, the playoffs are not out of the question.

Robert Thomas has really elevated his game with a nice point streak and a ton more confidence shooting the puck. Love to see it.

Jake Neighbours has 5 goals in his last 5 games and has earned a promotion to the top line.

The Bad:
Going down 5-0 early vs the poverty Sharks was a low point. Stinkers happen. But more importantly, the response to that stinker was... going down 5-0 early vs the Kings two nights later. That was a really bad sign. You want a team that gets up after being punched in the mouth. Yes, LA is a very good team and it was always going to be a tough game but I really didn't like that effort. Then after a wild game in Arizona, they immediately fall behind 6-1 to NSH and lose 8-2. Consistency has been a major concern and at this point it's anyone's guess as to which team is going to show up on any given night.

Jordan Kyrou is having all sorts of trouble handling pucks and making plays at speed. Since it's what his game relies on, the results have been mostly frustrating and he has now been bumped down to the 3rd line.

The Ugly:
The "power" play is still near the bottom of the league - 6 for 61, 9.8%, 3rd-worst in NHL. Didn't think it could possibly stay this ugly for this long but here we are.

The Hard Truth: Failing to identify Buchnevich as a stellar trade piece at this deadline, and instead considering him part of the future, could be a setback to the club. He is an amazing player at a bargain cap hit for this year and next, but the Blues are in no position to add another 30+ yr old to a long-term deal. No rush, but they need to test the market for him.

My Verdict:
Armstrong on Seravalli's podcast gave some more clues to his quiet rebuild, but he also faces more questions. He says the team can still be competitive but he's not going to "slap a band-aid" on a bigger issue. I say make the rebuild a little louder. He said he likes the LA Kings rebuild model. He doesn't it want it to drag out too long. Maybe he is forgetting the part where the Kings drafted 5th overall, 2nd overall, and 8th overall during the turnaround years. The better the picks, the shorter the rebuild. So why is he targeting 16th place?

It's because he says you can't bottom out with Thomas and Kyrou. But look at a team like the 2017 Avalanche. They were historically bad - 22-56-4, 48 pts - with Mackinnon, Duchene, Rantanen, and Landeskog on the roster. (Guess how they got Makar?). If the Blues trade Buch they probably have 2 players that would get over 55 pts. Goaltending started out hot but SV% is now .908... if it goes lower and injuries hit (and/or Buch is moved) this could be a bottom tier team. Not sure why Armstrong is afraid to step back even further. Better draft picks will get them out of the rebuild quicker. So will more draft picks (deadline sell).

Not gonna be upset if the Blues find themselves in the playoffs but I'm hoping the plan involves more tearing down and drafting in the top 10. Otherwise the rebuild will become what Armstrong says he wants to avoid.
Transactions
1.
STL
  1. Coghlan, Dylan
  2. Choix de 3e ronde en 2024 (CAR)
CAR
  1. Vrána, Jakub (1 312 500 $ retained)
2.
STL
  1. Choix de 4e ronde en 2024 (TOR)
3.
STL
  1. Beauvillier, Anthony
  2. Brzustewicz, Hunter [Liste de réserve]
  3. Choix de 1e ronde en 2024 (VAN)
VAN
  1. Buchnevich, Pavel (1 800 000 $ retained)
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
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2025
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2283 500 000 $81 881 429 $20 000 $0 $1 618 571 $
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835 833 $835 833 $
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3 200 000 $3 200 000 $
AD
UFA - 1
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4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
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NTC
UFA - 3
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6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
C, AG
NTC
UFA - 5
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8 125 000 $8 125 000 $
AD
UFA - 8
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1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
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UFA - 1
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3 571 429 $3 571 429 $
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816 667 $816 667 $
C
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775 000 $775 000 $
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UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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4 000 000 $4 000 000 $
DG
NTC
UFA - 3
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6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
DD
NTC
UFA - 7
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6 000 000 $6 000 000 $
G
NTC
UFA - 4
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6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
DG
NTC
UFA - 4
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6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
DD
NTC
UFA - 4
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775 000 $775 000 $
G
RFA - 2
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800 000 $800 000 $
DG/DD
RFA - 2
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775 000 $775 000 $
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RFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
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3 275 000 $3 275 000 $
DG
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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775 000 $775 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2

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27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 15
#1
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Canucks pass. We need RD.IMHO
27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 16
#2
mokumboi
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Your trade Buch argument would seem a lot stronger if you didn't give him away for a trash package.
27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 17
#3
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I think we could get more for Buch from a forward needy team but I agree it might be the time to sell high on him.
27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 22
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Xercuses
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Quoting: remowilliams
Canucks pass. We need RD.IMHO


Not saying hes the right option but borts is and has always been and RD i mean hes right handed so
27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 23
#5
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Im fine with the first 2 but we shouldnt trade buch. thatll set us back alot
27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 25
#6
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Quoting: mokumboi
Your trade Buch argument would seem a lot stronger if you didn't give him away for a trash package.


If you can show me a 1-2 yr rental winger that got a better package I'm all ears. 1st rounder, good prospect, cap ballast. Maybe they sneak another later/conditional pick out of it.
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27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 26
#7
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I can see the guy adding a guy like Bortuzzo as depth. Has he been a healthy scratch a lot? He has only played 4 games. Based on that, I doubt he gets a 4th (see Bogosian who got a 7th).
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27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 29
#8
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Quoting: xercuses
Im fine with the first 2 but we shouldnt trade buch. thatll set us back alot


That would be the point; regroup with an additional 1st rd pick and add a quality D prospect, all while upping the value of our own pick.
27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 33
#9
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Quoting: TMLBRIAN
I can see the guy adding a guy like Bortuzzo as depth. Has he been a healthy scratch a lot? He has only played 4 games. Based on that, I doubt he gets a 4th (see Bogosian who got a 7th).


Yeah he's been scratched in favor of getting Perunovich and Tucker more looks. At the deadline I thought he could get mid-round pick but it may be lower if he isn't getting to play a lot. Solid, physical no.6 that can PK and shoots right... was aiming for close to what L Schenn got.
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27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 36
#10
mokumboi
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Quoting: A_K
If you can show me a 1-2 yr rental winger that got a better package I'm all ears. 1st rounder, good prospect, cap ballast. Maybe they sneak another later/conditional pick out of it.


You left out the 3.5M in retention over two seasons, which is not free. And he's not a "1-2 year rental". He has 20 regular season games short of two seasons, including two playoff runs. The B+ prospect is not bad, but he's the wrong type at the wrong position. And like retention, "cap ballast" is also not free. This is far from a suitable offer.
27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 42
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Modifié 27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 49
Quoting: A_K
Yeah he's been scratched in favor of getting Perunovich and Tucker more looks. At the deadline I thought he could get mid-round pick but it may be lower if he isn't getting to play a lot. Solid, physical no.6 that can PK and shoots right... was aiming for close to what L Schenn got.


Schenn had an incredibly good and productive year last year leading up to the deadline. He was playing with Hughes. That's why he got the 3rd. It will all depends if Bortuzzo can get in games and play well. He could very well get a mid pick but I am expect a 5th to 7th. Time will tell!
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27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 45
#12
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Quoting: mokumboi
You left out the 3.5M in retention over two seasons, which is not free. And he's not a "1-2 year rental". He has 20 regular season games short of two seasons, including two playoff runs. The B+ prospect is not bad, but he's the wrong type at the wrong position. And like retention, "cap ballast" is also not free. This is far from a suitable offer.


Just assume it's at the deadline and then maybe they don't have to retain based on the deadline cap rules, that would be nice.

Hard disagree on prospect needs. There are no RHD in the system that show any real promise. Yes Brz is an offensive-minded guy in juniors but there is plenty to like in his game that could translate to being a reliable two-way guy for a 2nd pairing. You can give him another year in the OHL to round out his game, a year in the AHL after that, and if he's ready he slots in on the bottom pair for a year and then replaces Faulk the year after. Badly needed IMO.
27 nov. 2023 à 13 h 56
#13
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Quoting: A_K
Just assume it's at the deadline and then maybe they don't have to retain based on the deadline cap rules, that would be nice.

Hard disagree on prospect needs. There are no RHD in the system that show any real promise. Yes Brz is an offensive-minded guy in juniors but there is plenty to like in his game that could translate to being a reliable two-way guy for a 2nd pairing. You can give him another year in the OHL to round out his game, a year in the AHL after that, and if he's ready he slots in on the bottom pair for a year and then replaces Faulk the year after. Badly needed IMO.



If we're trading Buch, it needs to be more of an NHL ready or near prospect/young player. Not just 18 yo "good prospect" who could go any which way in development. It needs to be one helluva prospect, especially considering the fact that the 1st is going to be on the lower side. And honestly, the priority should be that prospect/young player part of the return and not the pick. The primary piece coming back should be an NHL ready guy who fits the bill at a position of now need and has shown he's on his way to being a contributor. We are not in a teardown rebuild. We should not behave as if we are, looking 4-5 years down the road. There are likely several more suitable offers with better timing to be found if we trade Buch.
27 nov. 2023 à 14 h 4
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Quoting: A_K
That would be the point; regroup with an additional 1st rd pick and add a quality D prospect, all while upping the value of our own pick.


Sure that might be the point but doesn’t change it would still set us back
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27 nov. 2023 à 14 h 4
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Quoting: mokumboi
Your trade Buch argument would seem a lot stronger if you didn't give him away for a trash package.


This is far from a trash package, and you won’t get much more for a winger based on historical comps. This is more than Debrincat, Toffoli, Tarasenko, and Rakell returned in recent trades. Buch is more valuable than these players (apart from maybe Debrincat) so he deserves a better return, but not much more than this offer

And this is a very similar return to what Fiala and Reinhart returned, which are probably the best comps for a Buch trade (specifically Fiala imo, although slightly different as he was an RFA)
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27 nov. 2023 à 14 h 11
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Quoting: mv21227
This is far from a trash package, and you won’t get much more for a winger based on historical comps. This is more than Debrincat, Toffoli, Tarasenko, and Rakell returned in recent trades. Buch is more valuable than these players (apart from maybe Debrincat) so he deserves a better return, but not much more than this offer

And this is a very similar return to what Fiala and Reinhart returned, which are probably the best comps for a Buch trade (specifically Fiala imo, although slightly different as he was an RFA)


Amen. As a Canucks fan, I would be appalled if they made this trade for a winger upgrade, particularly given how Brzustewicz has popped off this year. I think the only way that they do this kind of trade is for a top-four, cost-controlled defenseman.
27 nov. 2023 à 14 h 17
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Pretty good write up

Few things. I think we as fans often overlook how much a culture means to an organization. I think it's why there's a large reluctance to completely bottom out.

In general I would agree we could really stand to bottom out. Normally I wouldn't say that, but with this draft class being so defense heavy if we could snag one of the top 3 defenders it could do absolute wonders for us moving forward. Realistically looking out we aren't too far off from where we need to be. However, there are some pretty sizable hurdles to get there. The consistency issues have to be addressed and in all reality I don't think it's a coaching problem at this point. But I think we have to accept they are going to stay for at minimum 2-3 years. Dvorsky will be an nhler probably at the beginning of the 25-26 season. Same with Snuggerud, although he may push the bill for the 24-25 season. With that those players are going to be leaned on and are going to have the same growing pains we experienced from a Kyrou. Thomas not as much anymore, I've been extremely happy with his play thus far and has been rather consistent..

We don't really need to add in youth to our system at the moment on the front end. Chances are at the minimum Snuggerud, Dvorsky and Stenberg will be NHL players. There's a good chance that Bolduc and Dean at least contribute to some degree throughout the next couple of seasons at the NHL level, to what degree I personally am unsure. But that's 3 more young forwards being injected in that are going to have some growing pains. I am pretty skeptical of Neighbors staying on our top line. However, he plays a style that is pretty complimentary and he could be a 3rd wheel to a line so I'll just project that out. I'd imagine the front office would want to keep Buchnevich around but for this exercise I'll go without him.

Crop of surefire guys to still be around in 3 years (Assuming no trades) Thomas, Kyrou, Schenn, Saad, Hayes, Neighbors -> 1st liner, 1st/2nd liner, 2/3rd liner, 3rd liner, 3rd liner. 2nd/3rd liner.
Youth to be injected theoretically in that time in top 9 roles: Dvorsky, Stenberg, Snuggerud
Possible additions to top 9 youth: Bolduc, Dean, Alexandrov

is this a good group? No not really, it's a pretty lackluster group to be honest with you. I think Dvo will be a good top 6 center, he is extremely creative, has a great shot, and is hard on the puck. However, he has issues of trying to do too much at times which will take time to iron out as it is with Kyrou. Snuggerud I can pretty feasibly see being a 2nd line goal scorer on a good team, but that too will take time, I think his game is pretty mature so it wont take as much time but still nonetheless. I may be higher on Stenberg than most but he plays and feels like a guy that's going to succeed. Where exactly on an NHL team that's hard to tell. He isn't overly big, not overly fast and doesn't have any outstanding tools. However they're all pretty good and he's been a pretty key piece to successful puzzles in alot of places.

Long story short, do we need to sign Buchnevich long term? No not really, but in all reality he's got to be worth more to us with what we currently have than a late 1st, a middle 6 youngish scorer and a prospect who looks pretty tilted towards offensive abilities. I'm all for the idea that we will need to replace faulk soon. But I would rather us not stick with this formula of having 3-4 Puck movers who lack ability in their own zone and just turning towards throwing Parayko out there if the other team gets a draw in our zone to try and band aid the issues.
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27 nov. 2023 à 14 h 23
#18
mokumboi
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Quoting: mv21227
This is far from a trash package, and you won’t get much more for a winger based on historical comps. This is more than Debrincat, Toffoli, Tarasenko, and Rakell returned in recent trades. Buch is more valuable than these players (apart from maybe Debrincat) so he deserves a better return, but not much more than this offer

And this is a very similar return to what Fiala and Reinhart returned, which are probably the best comps for a Buch trade (specifically Fiala imo, although slightly different as he was an RFA)


Buch is definitely more than valuable than all those guys in the trades you're referencing. Tarasenko was traded 20 games from UFA, so that's not even a relevant comp. DeBrincat was an everybody knows there's an acrimonious split coming situation... again, not comparable. Meanwhile, "trade value" is not the sole factor in trades. Fit is as important, and these pieces don't fit as well as others would. And even if it was the sole factor, we're talking about what would be a low 24 1st, a B+ 18 yo prospect who doesn't fit their needs priority or club timeline target and a UFA in a sell low slump.

That's may be treasure to someone else for someone else, but for Buch to the Blues in 2023, it's hot garbage.
27 nov. 2023 à 14 h 24
#19
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Quoting: dfawcett
Amen. As a Canucks fan, I would be appalled if they made this trade for a winger upgrade, particularly given how Brzustewicz has popped off this year. I think the only way that they do this kind of trade is for a top-four, cost-controlled defenseman.


You don't realize it, but you just made half my point for me.
27 nov. 2023 à 14 h 34
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I don't see the Blues and Canucks being dance partners here. I'm pretty sure the Canucks aren't prepared to give up on Brzustewicz yet as he's the hottest scoring d-man in juniors right now. They will want to see how he progresses first. Buchnevich would be a great add to any contending team, but if the Blues are prepared to do this, it means they are giving up, and I don't see them doing that just yet. They will wait until closer to the TDL, then dangle Buch to a contending team that might have just had a significant injury.
27 nov. 2023 à 15 h 35
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Quoting: Jim_Benning_Almost
I don't see the Blues and Canucks being dance partners here. I'm pretty sure the Canucks aren't prepared to give up on Brzustewicz yet as he's the hottest scoring d-man in juniors right now. They will want to see how he progresses first. Buchnevich would be a great add to any contending team, but if the Blues are prepared to do this, it means they are giving up, and I don't see them doing that just yet. They will wait until closer to the TDL, then dangle Buch to a contending team that might have just had a significant injury.


I don't disagree with you in large part. I agree with most of it. I do however think that given Buch's contract and extra year he's not a guy you wait until the trade deadline to move or to acquire. This is a guy that a team would get for a bargain contract for this season and all of next. Sure there's a chance that the best deal comes around trade deadline, but I wouldn't think most teams who would be interested in acquiring would be looking towards him as a replacement for an injury. He's a guy that you are looking to make a strong push to a cup this year and next year with.

Namely, Pittsburgh or Washington makes the most sense assuming they are capable of contending. Tampa possibly as well, although there's not a good way to make it worthwhile for the Blues with Tampa. Colorado if they weren't in division would be a great partner, but i find it hard to believe either team would be comfortable making a trade of this magnitude within division. Rangers would be interesting for sure if he hadn't come from there. Islanders, Vegas, Florida possibly as well. I don't think a team like Detroit or Buffalo who could really benefit from acquiring him to push them over would be near as interested as their long term aspirations are still on the table. Toronto could be a possible suitor but they're moreso in need on the backend and goaltending side to pony up the assets.
27 nov. 2023 à 16 h 35
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Quoting: xercuses
Not saying hes the right option but borts is and has always been and RD i mean hes right handed so


Canucks need RightDefense help before more scoring.IMHO.Not sure what point your trying to make here.
27 nov. 2023 à 16 h 48
#23
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Quoting: remowilliams
Canucks need RightDefense help before more scoring.IMHO.Not sure what point your trying to make here.

Oops switched the nicks and tor symbol in my mind lmao
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27 nov. 2023 à 18 h 5
#24
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Quoting: mokumboi
You don't realize it, but you just made half my point for me.


Saying I've made your point, saying I don't understand how, and then not explaining. You know what, you've convinced me. A 1st, B+ RHD (aka arguably the most valuable position in hockey) prospect, and a throw-in winger is a trash package. Good thing the Canucks didn't trade a top-six centre who was their captain for that package last year...
27 nov. 2023 à 19 h 41
#25
Matak95
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Quoting: AC14
Pretty good write up

Few things. I think we as fans often overlook how much a culture means to an organization. I think it's why there's a large reluctance to completely bottom out.

In general I would agree we could really stand to bottom out. Normally I wouldn't say that, but with this draft class being so defense heavy if we could snag one of the top 3 defenders it could do absolute wonders for us moving forward. Realistically looking out we aren't too far off from where we need to be. However, there are some pretty sizable hurdles to get there. The consistency issues have to be addressed and in all reality I don't think it's a coaching problem at this point. But I think we have to accept they are going to stay for at minimum 2-3 years. Dvorsky will be an nhler probably at the beginning of the 25-26 season. Same with Snuggerud, although he may push the bill for the 24-25 season. With that those players are going to be leaned on and are going to have the same growing pains we experienced from a Kyrou. Thomas not as much anymore, I've been extremely happy with his play thus far and has been rather consistent..

We don't really need to add in youth to our system at the moment on the front end. Chances are at the minimum Snuggerud, Dvorsky and Stenberg will be NHL players. There's a good chance that Bolduc and Dean at least contribute to some degree throughout the next couple of seasons at the NHL level, to what degree I personally am unsure. But that's 3 more young forwards being injected in that are going to have some growing pains. I am pretty skeptical of Neighbors staying on our top line. However, he plays a style that is pretty complimentary and he could be a 3rd wheel to a line so I'll just project that out. I'd imagine the front office would want to keep Buchnevich around but for this exercise I'll go without him.

Crop of surefire guys to still be around in 3 years (Assuming no trades) Thomas, Kyrou, Schenn, Saad, Hayes, Neighbors -> 1st liner, 1st/2nd liner, 2/3rd liner, 3rd liner, 3rd liner. 2nd/3rd liner.
Youth to be injected theoretically in that time in top 9 roles: Dvorsky, Stenberg, Snuggerud
Possible additions to top 9 youth: Bolduc, Dean, Alexandrov

is this a good group? No not really, it's a pretty lackluster group to be honest with you. I think Dvo will be a good top 6 center, he is extremely creative, has a great shot, and is hard on the puck. However, he has issues of trying to do too much at times which will take time to iron out as it is with Kyrou. Snuggerud I can pretty feasibly see being a 2nd line goal scorer on a good team, but that too will take time, I think his game is pretty mature so it wont take as much time but still nonetheless. I may be higher on Stenberg than most but he plays and feels like a guy that's going to succeed. Where exactly on an NHL team that's hard to tell. He isn't overly big, not overly fast and doesn't have any outstanding tools. However they're all pretty good and he's been a pretty key piece to successful puzzles in alot of places.

Long story short, do we need to sign Buchnevich long term? No not really, but in all reality he's got to be worth more to us with what we currently have than a late 1st, a middle 6 youngish scorer and a prospect who looks pretty tilted towards offensive abilities. I'm all for the idea that we will need to replace faulk soon. But I would rather us not stick with this formula of having 3-4 Puck movers who lack ability in their own zone and just turning towards throwing Parayko out there if the other team gets a draw in our zone to try and band aid the issues.


Agree. I’m also not worried about our attack. Everything can happen, but I believe we have some very good young forwards coming in 2025/26 and next years. Still I think they’ll want to sign Buchnevich. If he would agree with something around 8 mil for 5/6 years I don’t see a problem. I think with his complex style he can do it and be part of this core… Agree It must be great package to send him out.

We will have a lot of cap space going forward (especially if we’ll trade Saad/Krug or Leddy, but still) with ELC’s or bridge deals (Snuggy, Dvorsky, Bolduc, Neighbours, …) and with cap go up it should be no problem.

And there’s still Free agency or trade when we will add forward and/or defenseman when Thomas and Kyrou are in their prime…

I’m not so calm about our defense and defense prospect but we will see what will Doug Armstrong do.

Overall I’m not so negative about Blues future. We could be in a good spot with little bit of luck. And I agree - Culture is important. They will not tear it down I think. But nice discussion here smile LGB!
 
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