Its really the defense that needs something:

Giordano cant play the whole year, liljegren just hasnt developed, timmins and klingberg dont play defense

Just always seems like leaf prosposals at forward

The blues got him for an ahler and a 7th and he's worth that much how?

"Hasn't developed"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWRP0XtWAAEBT14?format=webp&name=medium

And here is 2023 version:

You really think that now in his 6th pro season that he'll be a top 4 dman in Toronto? That hes going to play above Brodie or Klingberg? The same guy that was a healthy scratch for half the playoffs, under the same coach?

Im not saying he doesn;t have capable stats, Im saying, IMO, Keefe will not have him in top 4 minutes unless theres an injury. To me, with the hype and draft status, he should have been a top 4 dman, by now.

His value as an expiring RFA, whos due a raise whether he has a good year or not, who has not proven himself a top 4 guy, and probably wont be played as one either, based on that and the playoff healthy benching, is probably at a career low, valuewise.

The blues won't trade him until the TDL and I don't see us being interested in Jarnkrok at all. Robertsson is seemingly always injured and he is a winger. Value wise I don't know what he is worth because it depends on how he is playing but right now I don't see the blues being that interested in trading him

First of all, the Blues cannot afford what you're offering. And Robertson is of zero interest. Vrana will stay in STL for now.




What they paid for him is entirely irrelevant.

it's small sample size, but Vrana scored 10 goals in 20 GP with the Blues after Detroit dumped him on their doorstep. I think if they're selling him now, they're going to ask for more than this. I'd argue that with Toronto's cap situation, the Blues would ask for both of those 3rds to account for retaining on Vrana *and* taking on the remaining 3 years of Jarnkrok's $2.1M AAV. Robertson doesn't hold much value in my eyes at this point - dude has played a combined 82 AHL & NHL games in the past 3 seasons. He needs to stay on the ice consistently before he's seen as anything more than a lottery ticket.

I just don't see the value here for the Blues. If this is the best Toronto had to offer, I'd hang onto Vrana and hope he can keep scoring at a 25-30 goal pace this year and cash him in at the deadline.

It is when he hasnt done anything to boost his value by such a ridiculous amount

I mean...Vrana wasn't traded because he was bad at hockey. It was the off-ice issues that tanked his value, and the price St. Louis paid was seen by pretty much everyone as Detroit just wanting to wash their hands. We don't know what exactly the issues were, so it's hard to even speculate whether or not he's learned to survive with those issues at this point in time.

But assuming that he has - well, this is a guy who has 24 goals in 51 GP going back to the beginning of 2021-22. Even if you temper expectations down to a 25-30 goal pace, he's going to have a ton of value at the deadline if a team can get him at a $1.3M AAV.

But that's the thing, if such little time has passed and he hasnt dont anything to prove that the issues are resolved then his value remains very low.
He kicks off the season the same way he ended the last one and it will start to rise again, but we arnt there yet.
Now i dont think the blues should move him for crumbs or anything, but no other team would offer much more and retaining 1.3 for one year is a minimal value boost on top of that

Yeah, the hard part is with everything be off-ice there's nothing we can know about where that's at. For the sake of an ACGM, I'm assuming OP is operating as if Vrana is healthy and issue-free so I'm basing my opinion on that. No use speculating as to whether or not the off-ice stuff has any affect on his value until we hear something concrete one way or the other.

I will say that last year's deadline has absolutely nuked the cost of retention. Used to feel like $1-2M of retention would be worth a 3rd or a 4th and then you have teams like the Coyotes eating $5M+ of Patrick Kane for a 3rd rounder three drafts away. Vrana's $1.3M here would probably worth a 5th as a courtesy pick - but I do stand by my original thought that adding Jarnkrok adds negative value to the deal on the Blues' end, so they'd need a little more, and until Robertson shows he can stay healthy I don't think he has that value yet.

Heh. The Blues would not accept this offer (you're completely ignoring the cap burden transfer). And his value is the intersection of what the Blues would require to give him up and what another team is willing to pay. His previous acquisition price is itrelevant.

Never said the blues would accept it, probably because they are banking on him playing well enough to boost the value.
But.
We arnt there yet, this trade takes place theoretically before the season starts, so his value is what his value is, incredibly low. Considering that the wings are retaining twice as much than the blues would be here with said low value trade, he might net you a 6th instead of a 7th

Dude. Be serious. Again, who retains what is entirely irrelevant. What is relevant is the Leafs are transferring cap burden to the Blues, which they cannot afford. And giving them pieces they don't need or want to get one the Blues do like.

Otherwise known as the standard Leafs AGM trade.

well you're right about the standard leafs agm trade, but not how you think.

Do enlighten me.