How much of an upgrade is Gibson compared to Skinner?
Skinner was an All-Star, Gibson hasn't been very good in more than a few years.
They need to get rid of Campbell's contract at the TDL unless he's the no doubt #1 but this trade is not worth it for EDM.

A massive upgrade? His .899% was the first time he dipped below .900% in his career, on an all-time awful roster. 3 years ago he was a top 5 goalie in the league, it's not hard to tell his stats correlate to the strength of the team in front of him.

Skinner was incredibly awful last year. The Oilers took VGK to six games and Skinner got pulled in 3 of those 4 losses.... It won't cost much less to get rid of Campbell's contract, and betting on Skinner again with a core that includes McDavid, Draisatl, Kane, RNH, Hyman, Ekholm, Nurse and Bouchard would be unforgiveable.

They are literally one competent goaltender away from winning a cup, Gibson is more than just competent. Broberg and that late 1st won't help them.

Sounds like you're living in the past! Skinner will improve, Gibson has been on the decline FOR YEARS! He's not the guy you're giving him credit for.
Broberg is a far bigger help than Desharnais(and nobody after that) like you've got going on here!

Target Hellebuyck and you've got an upgrade. Moving Broberg will haunt the Oilers as much as MON is haunted by Sergachev

Gibson was literally an All Star the same year Campbell was dude, that was a season ago. Tell me you don't know what you're talking about without telling me you don't know what you're talking about. SMH.

What do you think of the trade? I'm not oblivious to the value Gibson still has so I'm interested to hear your thoughts.

On the one hand, I've heard Soups is a locker room beauty, which is good for a rebuilding team. Anaheim also has a proven track record of reclaiming project goalies. It's possible in a tandem role, he could be rehabbed so that he deal isn't completely attrocious.

Broberg is the main temptation in the deal, and based on his draft profile, could be a great long term partner for Drysdale with his size and defensive abilities. That's attractive in spite of the potential to clog the left side of the D for Anaheim extensive list of high end prospects for that position. I can also see potentially the road to the top 4 being blocked for Broberg in Edmonton with the addition of Ekholm who plays amazingly well with Bouchard, and then Nurse.

I really don't like the idea of retaining on Gibsons salary, though it's minimal, I'd rather take some other cap back the other way to make it work, but that's honestly a minor hiccup.

The biggest hurtle will be the trade protection that both goalies have. Gibson is widely believed to have all of Canada on his 10 team list, and Campbell likely doesn't go to Anaheim willingly, though he's at least lived in the area before.

If hate to see Gibson on a division rival, but this trade would benefit Anaheims future too much to pass up, and if Gibson really wants a shot at a cup, it would be hard to argue that a team like Edmonton who seems to only be a goalie away from getting over the hill.

And having a tandem of Campbell Stalock would make for a very entertaining season as the boys both play very old school with bendy Vaughn pads. As someone who watches goalies, I at least wouldn't be bored.

Appreciate the input, this is a fair assessment to me. Like you said, motivation for Gibson would have to be the chance at a cup. Outside the rink Edmonton is obviously a big downgrade from Anaheim as a city. The motivation for Campbell might be as simple as his mental health; he's a very likeable guy, but would often blame himself for Toronto's failures even if they weren't his fault. Now that you can legitimately say it is his fault Edmonton is being held back, both by his play and his contract, I'd think it must be crushing him to be the guy signed to a contract he doesn't deserve who might the biggest obstacle to McDavid winning a cup. I genuinely think the guy is so selfless that he would step aside for a more deserving starter like Gibby.

Our thinking was very much in line with Broberg being a potential partner for Drysdale, a guy who brings an element of size that could compliment his play well. Dostal seems like the backstop who will fit your competitive window so IMO the sooner you trade Gibby the higher his value will be. The retention is a wrinkle, I just couldn't make the cap work otherwise. I'm sure smarter minds could make it work.

I envy your rebuild because I think it makes you immune from what might have been the Leafs biggest downfall. You have two elite, potentially franchise centers and would never have the need to make a signing like we did with Tavares. You also have enough D prospects (especially with Broberg) that you won't have to continue to chase additions to the backend like we have, with Rielly as our only real constant. You also have the blue chip goalie prospect we never had.

At this point I think all you guys have to do is make sure your players are signed to team friendly deals and provide a balanced roster around them. Must have been an exciting time for you guys after you landed the 2nd pick, I remember the feeling when we won the draft lottery for Matthews and how bright the future seemed - before Dubas squandered it away.....

Swap Foegele and Jones?

That actually makes a lot of sense, I wonder what Gibby's thoughts would be. Good call!

Foegele produces at significantly higher rates than Jones, so that's just another swap that Edmonton would lose.

No thanks.

Significantly? Not really...

Foegele also becomes a UFA after next year where Jones would be an RFA.

Significantly: Foegele v Jones

Zero chance Edmonton would trade for a worse, more expensive goalie let alone add a top young defenseman and a 1st. That's just dreaming in technicolor.

I know per 60 stats make the numbers look nicer for you, but let me provide some context. Given the fact both players get around 12 minutes of ice time per game, it would take roughly 5 games for each player to get to 60 minutes of total ice time.

So as far as value to their respective teams, that's roughly:

- 0.73 more points every 5 games, or roughly 1 more point every 8 games.
- 2 more shots every 5 games
- 0.3 more "expected" goals every 5 games, or roughly 1 more expected goal every 16 games
- 0.2 more rush attempts every 5 games, or 1 more rush attempt every 25 games
- 2 more high danger shot attempts every 5 games

For a player who played on the highest scoring team in the league vs. one who played on a team with the 2nd fewest GF and most GA.

So no, it's not significant in the least. If you want to make it look more significant, you can just arbitrarily use per 120 minute stats to factor it even further. It doesn't matter because no player plays 60 minutes per game and Foegele doesn't even play that much in 5 games. The numbers will look bigger though!

Here are some numbers of my own:

25 years old - $1.295 mil per year
27 years old - $2.75 mil per year

Do the per dollar amount now!

A worse goalie, good joke! Maybe next year skinner will only get pulled in 2 games in a single series instead of 3 of their 4 losses against Vegas. Good luck!

Well you’ve paid to dump Campbell but there’s no value there for Gibson

This is one you may not necessarily be wrong about. Hard to gauge the value, but given the cap hit and term of both Campbell and Gibson this seems like a logical target for EDM. Value is definitely debatable I agree.

It's primarily a cap decision, not an on-ice comparison, and as usual you're over-valuing an Edmonton player with a less-attractive contract structure.

Probably hopeless arguing with a guy who thinks Campell is a better goalie than Gibson lol.

The difference between 2.09 P/60 and 1.36 P/60 is indeed significant: it's the difference between ranking 86th in the league and 285th in the league, out of 382 forwards.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=ALL&pos=F&loc=B&toi=500&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

Why do you think the Oilers were the highest scoring team? Because they had 6 guys who scored at 1st line rates at 5v5 + the best PP ever. Foegele rarely played with McDavid, so don't start using that excuse.

I don’t know how much Gibson is worth maybe another 1st and a 3rd

I posted the numbers. Foegele is a big, fast and physical player who scores at 1st line rates at 5v5. His xG and HDCF numbers are among the top in the league, plus he's top3 in takeaways. He's worth a lot more than his paycheck, suggesting trading him formal demonstrably worse player just to facilitate taking on a cap dump goalie Edmonton doesn't need is simply crazy.

He's a cap dump. He hasn't been elite since 2018. Nobody in their right mind would give up anything for him.

How's this take working out for ya? Care to get into the numbers again?

I must be clairvoyant!