Next season's team isn't going to look too much different. Main differences are Bedard and some AHL promotions with Philips, Vlasic, and Reichel. I also feel like Korchinski will get a 9 game trial and stay on the team for most of the season. If Seattle has a strong team next year, or he is traded in the WHL, can see him returning for later half of season like Dylan Guenther. They'll also make a couple trades and signings to help reach the cap floor too, but want to remain flexible.
Trades
Bailey to Chicago has been on Capfriendly for a minute now and is a move I see very possible. On top of that, Scott Powers from the Athletic has said that the hawks are open to trading for players and buying them out. Bailey is a prime candidate of that happening in my opinion.
With Dubas acting as GM this draft for PIT, he has an establish relationship with KD. In all honesty, there isn't much of a difference in talent that could be available from 14 to 19 (Pronman has his tier 5 from 11 to 20), but PIT needs to restock while staying competitive (#29 Prospect pool according to Wheeler). I have a feeling they won't be rebuilding as long as 87 is there, so this move gives them some capital to play with in this years draft while also being able to draft multiple players in first 2 rounds. I can also see the 2nd round pick being switched with either Tampa's 2nd rounder or even Ottawa's 2nd rounder, but someone really has to fall for the hawks to use Ottawa's pick.
Tampa and Chicago has done a lot of trades, but Tampa is in a rough spot with the salary cap. With having ~7.3 mil in cap space with only 8 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 1 goalie signed, they got a lot they need to do. This trade gets Seabrook's contract off the books, Myers 1.4 mil cap hit out, and also helps them regain assets from Ross Colton with Reese Johnson (800K salary) and a 3rd round pick. I'll be honest, I'm not too sure what they value is of Colton, but if he is pricing himself out of Tampa, better to move him and get something back than to lose him for nothing. Johnson is a good bottom 6 player who is physical and has some offensive potential.
Everyone has been talking about a trade with Vancouver, but I honestly can't see it making sense. It's not going to cost much to move Boeser or Garland, rather they might get something, no one is trading for OEL, and that leaves Myers who is cheap to trade after his bonus is paid. They also have a lot of LTIR contracts, so it'll be interesting to see what they do.
RFA's and Free Agents
With getting Colton Ross, they'll sign him to a 3 year deal with a higher AAV and see how it goes. For him, he'll be a UFA by the time his contract is up. Anderson and Bjork are the only 2 TDL traded players that return. Anderson is a useful bottom 6 player that can establish himself a full time NHL player this year and Bjork can have a rebound year. He played well after the TDL and I think is someone you give a look at. Kurashev signs a 2 year deal and is one to just see if he can play consistent or not. That's been his issue in Chicago and with the abundance of prospects in Chicago's future, he's got to start proving himself. Regula is an AHL player who can see if he can stay in the NHL this year. If not, they got Tinordi and Myers to fill in if anything.
JT Compher comes to Chicago on a short high AAV deal. He can play for his hometown team and play with Bedard while also getting paid well. If he plays well, he is setting himself up for a new contract nicely.
Sam Savoie is a prospect from last years draft that had a good season last year and earned himself a contract. He'll go back to juniors next season.
Buyouts
Bailey I touched on before, but Zaitsev is just not the player to have. With more defensemen than needed, he's the odd man out and can sign elsewhere.
Draft Targets
#1- Connor Bedard
#14 - Matthew Wood (RW UConn NCAA), Gabriel Perrault (LW, NTDP), Oliver Moore (C, NTDP) or Zach Benson (LW, Winnipeg WHL)
#35 - Bradley Nadeau (LW, Penticton BCHL), Gavin Brindley (C, Michigan NCAA), Oscar Fisker Molgaard (C, HV 71 SHL) or Charlie Stramel (RW, Wisconsin NCAA)
#44 - Danny Nelson (C, NTDP), Jaydon Perron (RW, Chicago USHL), Gracyn Sawchyn (C, Seattle WHL) or Alex Ciernik (LW, Sodertalje SK HockeyAllsvenskan)
#51 - Andrew Gibson (RHD, Soo Greyhounds OHL), Noah Dower Nilsson (C, Frolunda HC J20/SHL), Koehn Ziemmer (RW, Prince George WHL), or Roman Kantserov (RW, Magnitogorsk MHL)
#67 - Luca Pinelli (C, Ottawa OHL), Easton Cowan (RW, London OHL), Carey Terrance (C, Erie OHL), or Aram Minnetian (RHD, NTDP)
#99 - Connor Levis (C, Kamloops WHL), Yegor Sidorov (RW, Saskatoon WHL), Jaden Lipinski (C, Vancouver WHL), or Beckett Hendrickson (C, NTDP)
Personally, I would stay forward heavy in the draft with maybe grabbing a RHD somewhere in the later 50 of the top 100. Maybe a goalie too with a late round pick, but here are some players that interest me that fell in between the ranges of where analysts think they'll go.
$6m for Compher? Not worth it. Rather offer that deal to Killorn.
If Hawks trade for Bailey, they should hang on to him and play him in a top 6 role. He could then be worth another pick at the deadline w/ retention.
If Colton is willing to sign for $3.5m per, he stays in Tampa. They can afford that. And if Bolts trade him, that offer gets beat easy. Tampa will be looking for a young, NHL ready LHD (like Bahl or POJ) and a young NHL ready F. Johnson might be ok if Hawks had a LHD to add. Bolts could care less about the pick.
The Pit trade only makes sense if there is someone available at 14 the Hawks love& don’t think will still be there 5 picks later. If not no dice, to give up a second just to say you moved up 5 spots is foolish.
Ross Colton probably slots into Tampa's top six next season, and if he signs a 3.5M for 3 years Tampa honestly does that and keeps him.
I like the idea of using him to ship out Myers and Seabs, but at the same time I feel like TB can probably get a player or two back like Dickinson retained to be our 4th C and another young guy that can impact the roster right away.
It's a good idea and I'm not knocking it, but the return either gets beat or can be a touch better.
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